The perpetual Cheshire cat smile on Billy Beane's face seemed a little wider this spring, perhaps because the A's GM thinks he has a team that can finally live up to the "Moneyball" hype and make it all the way to the World Series
In contrast to other recent offseasons in which he had to make hard payroll decisions by parting ways with pivotal players (pitchers Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, shortstop Miguel Tejada, outfielder Jermaine Dye), Beane resisted trade offers for his lefty ace Barry Zito and center fielder Mark Kotsay. Instead, he made three potentially significant acquisitions, trading for right fielder Milton Bradley and righthanded starter Esteban Loaiza and signing longtime White Sox icon Frank Thomas. All of them have varying checkered pasts, but Beane believes they can thrive in the low-key environment of Oakland - the emotionally troubled Bradley as a five-tool player with MVP potential who can hit anywhere in the lineup, the inconsistent Loaiza as the No. 5 starter behind Zito, Rich Harden, Dan Haren and Joe Blanton, and the oft-injured Thomas as the much-needed run producer supplying protection for their primary offensive weapons, third baseman Eric Chavez, shortstop Bobby Crosby, Kotsay and switch-hitting second-year first baseman Nick Swisher. In All-Star setup man Justin Duchscherer and Rookie of the Year closer Huston Street, the A's have a solid, youthful bullpen.
Given the failure of the defending AL West champion Angels to make any significant upgrades, particularly with regard to a run producer to hit behind Vladimir Guerrero, Beane's moves - and non-moves - have thrust the A's into the role of favorites in the division. And if the newcomers all work out as hoped and the A's can avoid the sort of devastating injuries that limited Crosby to 84 games and Harden to 22 starts last year, this could be Beane's best team.
Down the coast in Anaheim, GM Bill Stoneman, who's established a reputation for being a fiscal hardliner, essentially made a statement this winter that the defending AL West champs will live or die with their homegrown players. Team leader Bengi Molina was allowed to walk as a free agent to make room for top catching prospect Jeff Mathis, while Stoneman maintained that the needed firepower in the lineup will have to come from a rejuvenated Garret Anderson, first baseman Casey Kotchman (.278, 7 HR in 47 games). Stoneman's only notable acquisition this winter was the signing of free-agent righthander Jeff Weaver to replace lefty Jarrod Washburn in what is now an all-righty rotation with Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon, John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar and Ervin Santana.
It remains to be seen if the shift in power in the AL West will extend to Texas where Buck Showalter is facing a pivotal season as manager. Owner Tom Hicks has gotten tired of losing and opened up his checkbook again to address the primary cause - starting pitching. The Rangers led the AL with 260 homers in '05, but ranked 12th in ERA (4.96). Three years after being bamboozled by agent Scott Boras and paying $252 million for Alex Rodriguez, Hicks doled out another $48 million for Boras client Kevin Millwood, whom Showalter immediately installed as his No. 1 starter. In addition, the Rangers traded for righthanders Adam Eaton (from the Padres) and Vicente Padilla (from the Phillies) to further bolster the AL's worst rotation. And, in another trade that could be termed addition by subtraction, the Rangers traded defensively challenged Alfonso Soriano to Washington for center fielder Brad Wilkerson, allowing Showalter to install rookie Ian Kinsler at second base.
It also figures to be a critical season for Mariners GM Bill Bavasi, who spent $114 million on free agents Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre in '05 and had a 93-loss season to show for it. This winter, Bavasi spent another $37.5 million on Washburn, who is 29-31 over the last four years, and took a $16.5 million gamble on Japanese catcher Kenji Johjima being able to handle the Mariner pitching staff. With elite table-setter Ichiro Suzuki followed by Sexson, Beltre, Raul Ibanez and free agent Carl Everett, the Mariners' offense should be decent, but the starting pitching, headed by 43-year-old Jamie Moyer, is highly suspect. PREDICTED FINISH
Athletics 100-62
Angels 88-74
Rangers 80-82
Mariners 65-97
Jesse Spector's Capsule Previews
OAKLAND ATHLETICS LAST YEAR: 88-74, second place GOING, GOING, GONE: John Baker (Marlins), Hiram Bocachica, Alberto Castillo (Nationals), Octavio Dotel (Yankees), Erubiel Durazo, Andre Ethier (Dodgers), Scott Hatteberg (Reds), Ricardo Rincon (Cardinals). FRESH BLOOD: Milton Bradley, Raul Casanova, Chad Gaudin, Randy Keisler, Esteban Loaiza, Antonio Perez, Matt Roney, Frank Thomas. THE BATS: If Bradley can stay mentally focused, his presence will make waves up and down the order, getting better pitches to hit for Mark Ellis and creating RBI opportunities for the heart of the order behind him. Oakland does not boast a power-packed lineup, but it's good enough to contend in this division. It's impossible to say what Thomas will bring after only 345 at-bats over the last two years. On the bright side, the Big Hurt should be fresh in his first season out of Chicago. THE ARMS: Rich Harden might have better stuff than Barry Zito, but the challenge for the righthander has been staying on the mound. "He's got to say healthy," one GM said. "If he'd stayed healthy all last year, you'd say he had the real breakout year." As it was, Harden was 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA and 121 strikeouts in 128 innings. With Loaiza, Dan Haren and Joe Blanton fitting nicely into the 3, 4 and 5 spots in the rotation, Zito and Harden give the A's an above average staff. Whether or not GM Billy Beane believes in traditional closers, Huston Street is the real deal. UP-AND-COMER: Gaudin has had cups of coffee with the Devil Rays and Blue Jays, but spent most of last year with Toronto's Triple-A team in Syracuse, posting a 3.35 ERA in 23 starts. The 23-year-old righthander will likely start in the minors, but should see more action in the majors this year. HERE'S THE PITCH: The storm from Moneyball has finally dissipated, but not much has changed in Oakland's philosophy. It's all about pitching and using a shoestring budget to cobble together a lineup that can put enough runs on the board. Since the Angels became big spenders, though, it's been tougher to win in the AL West.
L.A. ANGELS OF ANAHEIM LAST YEAR: 95-67, first place, lost to White Sox in ALCS GOING, GOING, GONE: Paul Byrd (Indians), Jason Christiansen, Jeff DaVanon (Diamondbacks), Steve Finley (Giants), Lou Merloni (Indians), Bengie Molina (Blue Jays), Josh Paul (Devil Rays), Joel Peralta (Royals), Bret Prinz (Rockies), Zach Sorensen (Brewers), Jarrod Washburn (Mariners). FRESH BLOOD: Edgardo Alfonzo, Hector Carrasco, J.C. Romero, Jeff Weaver. THE BATS: The Angels' problem last season was not having enough power to protect Vladimir Guerrero. Keeping Garret Anderson healthy will be important, but a real key will be for Darin Erstad to return to his 2004 form, when he hit .295 with a .346 on-base percentage. "We need him to have a little better year," GM Bill Stoneman said. Casey Kotchman takes over at first base as Erstad moves to center field. One GM was very high on Kotchman, saying he's an "accomplished hitter that's young, had a real taste of the big leagues and I think will continue to get better." THE ARMS: Bartolo Colon is the reigning Cy Young winner, and the rotation is strong from top to bottom, with Weaver, a late-winter pickup, coming off a 14-win season, at No. 5. Ervin Santana was brilliant at times in a mixed starting and relieving role as a rookie. As Stoneman notes, "the bullpen's been good every year I've been here...it's been one of the trademarks of Angels baseball." With Francisco Rodriguez anchoring the relief corps, that does not figure to change anytime soon. UP-AND-COMER: Jeff Mathis, a catcher who turns 23 tomorrow, hit .276 with 21 homers and 73 RBI at Triple-A. "There's a reason they didn't bring back Molina," said one GM. With several top prospects also in the system, Mathis is the one who should make the biggest impact this year. HERE'S THE PITCH: The Angels' pitching is probably good enough to win the AL West again. The question is whether they'll hit enough to get the job done in October when they come up against staffs that can match them arm for arm. A midseason trade could help in that area.
TEXAS RANGERS LAST YEAR: 79-83, third place GOING, GOING, GONE: Sandy Alomar Jr. (Dodgers), Doug Brocail (Padres), Greg Colbrunn, Esteban German (Royals), Adrian Gonzalez (Padres), Richard Hidalgo, Steve Karsay (Indians), Ricardo Rodriguez (Phillies), Kenny Rogers (Tigers), Terrmel Sledge (Padres), Alfonso Soriano (Nationals), Chris Young (Padres). FRESH BLOOD: Antonio Alfonseca, Brian Anderson, Jamie Burke, Fabio Castro, Jose Diaz, Adam Eaton, Armando Galarraga, Adam Hyzdu, Jon Leicester, Kevin Millwood, Akinori Otsuka, Vicente Padilla, Brad Wilkerson. THE BATS: What else is new? The Rangers can swing the bat with anyone, and play in a ballpark that only enhances that strength. Wilkerson should fit right in at the top of the order, and what Texas will lose in production by trading Soriano, the Rangers will benefit from not having to deal with him. Mark Teixeira led the American League with 370 total bases, part of a season in which he hit 43 homers and knocked in 144 runs to finish seventh in the MVP voting. THE ARMS: The Rangers have needed to overhaul their staff for years, and did it this winter, bringing in Millwood, Eaton and Padilla to front the rotation. The latter two may struggle coming over from the National League, but almost by default have to be an improvement for a staff that posted a 4.96 ERA. Closer Francisco Cordero, automatic in 2004, needs to regain that form - his 37 saves last year masked some problems. UP-AND-COMER: After hitting .274 with 23 homers and 94 RBI at Triple-A, 23-year-old Ian Kinsler will have a chance to become the Rangers' latest big hitter as their starting second baseman. "He's been talked about," one GM said. "He's a guy that's a pretty good player." HERE'S THE PITCH: If you have tickets to a Texas game this season, as usual, be prepared for a long game with plenty of runs. The Rangers are just hoping that they won't give up quite so many. If the young arms at the back end of the rotation mature quickly, Texas could contend.
SEATTLE MARINERS LAST YEAR: 69-93, last place GOING, GOING, GONE: Cha Seung Baek, Fabio Castro (Rangers), Ryan Franklin (Phillies), Wiki Gonzalez (Nationals), Dave Hansen, Shigetoshi Hasegawa (retired), Bobby Madritsch (Royals), Jeff Nelson (Cardinals), Pokey Reese (Marlins), Ramon Santiago (Tigers), Jamal Strong, Matt Thornton (White Sox), Yorvit Torrealba (Rockies), Dan Wilson (retired). FRESH BLOOD: Kevin Appier, Joe Borchard, Marcos Carvajal, Carl Everett, Kenji Johjima, Matt Lawton, Fernando Vina, Jarrod Washburn. THE BATS: It's never a good sign when a team only knows what it's getting from three of its nine regulars, but that's the case in Seattle, where only Ichiro Suzuki, Richie Sexson and Raul Ibanez have shown themselves to be consistent, year-to-year producers. Jeremy Reed didn't live up to expectations last season, while Adrian Beltre was a free agent flop. Nobody ever knows what to expect from Everett, while Johjima's transition to the American game raises questions about him. Jose Lopez and Yunieski Betancourt are both too young to know what to expect. THE ARMS: Jamie Moyer has had at least 13 victories in nine of the last 10 seasons, so even at 43, winning games with a mix of slow and slower pitches is just Moyer being Moyer. At the other end of the age spectrum is Felix Hernandez, who reminds many of a young Dwight Gooden. Washburn is 5-4 with a 3.53 career ERA in Seattle. UP-AND-COMER: Hernandez still doesn't turn 20 until April 8, and the righthander pitched in 12 big league games last season, going 4-4 with a 2.67 ERA. In his minor league career from 2003 through last year, Hernandez was 21-6 with a 2.72 ERA and 263 strikeouts in 218.1 innings. Last year, he pitched a career-high 172.1 innings between Triple-A and the majors, so he might bear watching later in the year. HERE'S THE PITCH: The Mariners are built for their pitching-friendly home in Seattle, and baseball purists in the Pacific Northwest will enjoy watching their home team. The question is whether the lineup can produce enough runs to support a staff that, while it's the team's strength, doesn't rate among the league's best.