Evidence mounts that recession may be ending

**Prince** · 05-28-2009, 12:03 PM

But the economy's bounce along the bottom may be a very bumpy ride

The economy is throwing off signals that it may be bumping along the bottom, and the ride is likely to be rough.

Some of recent green lights include: a rise in demand for big-ticket items like major appliances, a decline in applications for unemployment benefits and a housing market that is no longer in free-fall.

The data lend weight to the growing notion, supported by more than 90 percent of economists in a recent survey, that the deepest recession since the 1930s may be drawing to a close.

"The developing trend signals this recession — the longest and deepest of the postwar era — is losing momentum," Wachovia economic analyst Tim Quinlan said in a note to clients.

But the economic picture is still a bit blurry.

For example, the Commerce Department reported Thursday that orders for durable goods like appliances, heavy machinery and aircraft posted their biggest one-month gain in 16 months, up 1.9 percent from March. But March orders were revised downward to a decline of 2.1 percent, leaving the two-month total at nearly a wash.

Still, the key indicator has risen in two of the past three months after having recorded six straight declines. Analysts believe this could be signaling that the deep recession in manufacturing may be bottoming out. But they believe a sustained rebound is still some distance away.

Other positive signs this week have come from the housing sector. Sales of new homes rose a tiny 0.3 percent in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 352,000 from a downwardly revised rate of 351,000 in March.

Although the direction was positive, the result was short of expectations of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who expected a sales pace of 360,000 units. (Nearly 1.3 million new homes were sold at the height of the boom in 2005.)

"The new home sales numbers seem to confirm what the single-family housing starts and permits numbers imply — that the market for new single-family homes is flattening, indeed, that it may have hit bottom in January — and that the recovery will be a slow one," IHS Global Insight economist Patrick Newport said in a note.

Sales of existing homes, a far larger part of the market, were up 2.9 percent in April, a trade group reported Wednesday. But prices are still showing steep year-over-year declines for both new and existing homes.

The median sales price of new homes sold last month, at $209,700, was down 14.9 percent from a year earlier.

In another mostly positive sign, the tally of newly laid-off people requesting jobless benefits fell this week, a sign that companies may be cutting fewer workers.

But the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits rose to 6.78 million — the largest total on records dating back to 1967 and the 17th straight record week, according to data released Thursday. The figures for continuing claims lag behind initial claims by one week.

The Labor Department said the number of initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to a seasonally adjusted 623,000, from a revised figure of 636,000 in the previous week. It was below analysts' estimates of 635,000.

The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, shrank at annual rates of 6.3 percent in the fourth quarter and 6.1 percent in the first three months of this year. It was the worst six-month performance for the GDP in a half-century.

But many analysts believe that the worst part of the recession is coming to an end. They expect GDP to decline by a smaller 2 percent to 3 percent in the current quarter and then turn slightly positive in the second half of this year.

More than 90 percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics are predicting that the current recession, now the longest since World War II, will end either in the third quarter or by the fourth quarter of this year.

The recovery is not likely to show real strength until employment improves and until the housing market gets back on its feet.

Even though sales of existing homes are up, they may be getting a boost from people brave enough to venture into the market for homes in foreclosure.

Sales of high-end homes remain stagnant and new home purchases were flat in April.

And there may be more housing trouble down the pike. A record 12 percent of homeowners with a mortgage are behind on their payments or in foreclosure as the housing crisis spreads to borrowers with good credit.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday the foreclosure rate on prime fixed-rate loans doubled in the last year, and now represents the largest share of new foreclosures. Nearly 6 percent of fixed-rate mortgages to borrowers with good credit were in the foreclosure process.

At the same time, almost half of all adjustable-rate loans to borrowers with shaky credit were past due or in foreclosure.

The rising tide of foreclosures could threaten to drown the recovery before it begins in earnest, despite a bill signed by President Barack Obama aimed at helping millions of struggling borrowers keep their homes.

source

**maniclion** · 05-28-2009, 12:23 PM

Photovoltaic system sales are rising. That's $10,000 - $25,000 with paybacks 6-10 years. That folks are willing to drop money like that and not see a return for several years is a good sign. It never stopped here but it was slow for the first 3 1/2 months of 09

**Big Smoothy** · 05-29-2009, 02:33 AM

Whenever the recession officially ends (due to the definitions)

There still will be:

Declining wages & earnings for workers

Lack of job security

Unemployment in the 6-8% range

Little, if any chance at all to retire, even by savers

Higher taxes at all levels

Rising medical costs

My point: when the recession ends, the circumstances for American workers will be worse that it was before, and it was bad already to begin with. And after this recession, saving have been wiped out, 401K down 45-50%, and foreclosures and lost equity.

Much of the middle class will not ever rebound.

Baby Boomers in particular, never will.

Recession ending? When did it really start? 2000?

IMO, the decline started in 1970.

**Burner02** · 05-29-2009, 04:04 AM

...as long as I still get deal on a new truck next year when I go home on R&R....

**juggernaut** · 05-29-2009, 07:09 AM

Originally Posted by maniclion

Photovoltaic system sales are rising. That's $10,000 - $25,000 with paybacks 6-10 years. That folks are willing to drop money like that and not see a return for several years is a good sign. It never stopped here but it was slow for the first 3 1/2 months of 09

good point; I am looking into investing 40k into my home for a solar panel because my energy expense mirrors that of my gym in the summer. It's insane. However, I cant turn off my a/c or my computers because I rely so heavily on them.

**P-funk** · 05-29-2009, 09:01 AM

I feel like everyday someone writes an article saying: We are on our way out of this and someone else writes an article: It is all down hill from here.

I wish the "experts" would make up their minds.

patrick

**Prince** · 05-29-2009, 09:29 AM

Originally Posted by P-funk

I feel like everyday someone writes an article saying: We are on our way out of this and someone else writes an article: It is all down hill from here.

I wish the "experts" would make up their minds.

patrick

I hear ya, I am just trying to stay positive.

**bio-chem** · 05-29-2009, 09:46 AM

Originally Posted by P-funk

I feel like everyday someone writes an article saying: We are on our way out of this and someone else writes an article: It is all down hill from here.

I wish the "experts" would make up their minds.

patrick

whenever the experts do make up their minds they will be wrong. economics is less a science and more about reading tea leaves or chicken bones

**tucker01** · 05-29-2009, 09:47 AM

mmmmm chicken bones.

**P-funk** · 05-29-2009, 09:50 AM

Originally Posted by Prince

I hear ya, I am just trying to stay positive.

I am trying to stay positive as well. Both in spirit and in bank account.

patrick

**nkira** · 05-29-2009, 10:21 AM

I just got this month's energy bill.......$300, used to be something like average $80 a month.......

Summer sucks!!!

How much do you people pay per month on an average I mean?

Originally Posted by juggernaut

good point; I am looking into investing 40k into my home for a solar panel because my energy expense mirrors that of my gym in the summer. It's insane. However, I cant turn off my a/c or my computers because I rely so heavily on them.

**juggernaut** · 05-29-2009, 01:06 PM

Originally Posted by P-funk

I am trying to stay positive as well. Both in spirit and in bank account.

patrick

write another book like the one you just published and you'll be good to go!

**juggernaut** · 05-29-2009, 01:07 PM

Originally Posted by nkira

I just got this month's energy bill.......$300, used to be something like average $80 a month.......

Summer sucks!!!

How much do you people pay per month on an average I mean?

I have a/c on from May to September...I have computers running alllllll the time. It sucks. I pay about 500 to 600 a month.

**Yanick** · 05-29-2009, 01:10 PM

All I know is, every resume I send out, every follow up phone call I make, every Healthcare establishment I show up to says the same thing. We are not hiring right now, there is no more money left in the budget, call us in a year.

**Prince** · 05-29-2009, 01:32 PM

Originally Posted by Yanick

All I know is, every resume I send out, every follow up phone call I make, every Healthcare establishment I show up to says the same thing. We are not hiring right now, there is no more money left in the budget, call us in a year.

what kind of work do you do?

**P-funk** · 05-29-2009, 01:33 PM

Originally Posted by juggernaut

write another book like the one you just published and you'll be good to go!

LOl, that book was fun to write. I sure wish it paid the bills!

patrick

**Prince** · 05-29-2009, 01:40 PM

Originally Posted by P-funk

LOl, that book was fun to write. I sure wish it paid the bills!

patrick

if you market it well you can make $

did you get anywhere with CB?

**P-funk** · 05-29-2009, 01:46 PM

Originally Posted by Prince

if you market it well you can make $

did you get anywhere with CB?

Ivonne is getting it put together and then I can send it to you. She has been busy with other things lately and I tend to destroy computers when I do anything other than post on the internet.

patrick

**Prince** · 05-29-2009, 02:14 PM

Originally Posted by P-funk

Ivonne is getting it put together and then I can send it to you. She has been busy with other things lately and I tend to destroy computers when I do anything other than post on the internet.

patrick

ok, all I need is your CB hoplink URL when you get it.

**Yanick** · 05-29-2009, 02:16 PM

Originally Posted by Prince

what kind of work do you do?

Registered Nurse. Supposedly the #1 recession proof job there is. I'd really hate to see what its like in other profession.

**Dale Mabry** · 05-29-2009, 02:20 PM

Originally Posted by nkira

I just got this month's energy bill.......$300, used to be something like average $80 a month.......

Summer sucks!!!

How much do you people pay per month on an average I mean?

I live a condo building where it is included in rent, but the last place I lived in cost about 170 a month, but that was a while ago. I think condo fees are $600 a year, so that is the charge for utilities and such, but I rent.

**Prince** · 05-29-2009, 02:37 PM

Originally Posted by Yanick

Registered Nurse. Supposedly the #1 recession proof job there is. I'd really hate to see what its like in other profession.

that is surprising, I guess you could take an CNA job temporarily?

**Yanick** · 05-29-2009, 03:14 PM

Its a possibility. I'm inquiring about those types of positions too, but they pay very little and don't offer much in the way of experience. All CNA's really do is clean the patients, feed them, clothe them. Everything that I, and other Nurses, don't want to do lol.

**shiznit2169** · 05-29-2009, 03:18 PM

Originally Posted by P-funk

LOl, that book was fun to write. I sure wish it paid the bills!

patrick

You wrote a book? Where can i get a copy of one?

**maniclion** · 05-29-2009, 07:58 PM

Originally Posted by nkira

I just got this month's energy bill.......$300, used to be something like average $80 a month.......

Summer sucks!!!

How much do you people pay per month on an average I mean?

Before I got my Solar Water Heater and Solar Electric System I was paying $900 a month, now it's around $275-300 with 2 fridges, 3 A/C units, computer on all the time, a 40" LCD tv and a 50" Plasma.

**nkira** · 05-29-2009, 10:12 PM

I guess computer's just hate you.....they hated me too but then we settled....

Originally Posted by P-funk

Ivonne is getting it put together and then I can send it to you. She has been busy with other things lately and I tend to destroy computers when I do anything other than post on the internet.

patrick

**nkira** · 05-29-2009, 10:22 PM

Why does that need to be

????

Well I have a computer (almost always on, last uptime was 2 month's!) Water heaters 3(1.5kw each), 4 A/c, 40" LCD Tv, 3 Fridges, Dish Washer, 2 Washing m/c....that's the major load...

I guess a/c & fridges contribute a lot to bill, at least in summer....

Originally Posted by maniclion

Before I got my Solar Water Heater and Solar Electric System I was paying $900 a month, now it's around $275-300 with 2 fridges, 3 A/C units, computer on all the time, a 40" LCD tv and a 50" Plasma.

**P-funk** · 05-30-2009, 08:01 AM

Originally Posted by shiznit2169

You wrote a book? Where can i get a copy of one?

Yup.

Thanks for the interest!

Prince is actually going to be selling the book here, so I'll wait until he gets it up and then I can send you a link.

Patrick

**Prince** · 05-30-2009, 08:35 AM

Take Charge! Everything You Need to Know to Write Your Own Training Programs

**nkira** · 05-30-2009, 09:02 AM

I'll be buying that soon.....

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