The end of middle America?

**min0 lee** · 12-19-2010, 08:18 AM

The end of middle America? Working class white families are unraveling before our eyes

Foreclosures, plant closings, offshored jobs, underwater mortgages, miserable rates of unemployment, stagnating incomes: Is there any end to the woes of the struggling American middle? Apparently not, because now comes news of a trend guaranteeing trouble ahead for the more than half of the nation that make up the moderately educated and moderately earning middle — even if the economy improves.

That seismic shift, outlined in a new report from the National Marriage Project and the Institute for American Values, is towards more divorce, more out of wedlock births and, ipso facto, fewer kids with a hopeful future.

Family breakdown, to put it simply, has hit white middle America big time.

Researchers have known for a while now that there is a significant "marriage gap" between affluent couples and low-income, largely minority, ones. The children of well-to-do college educated couples are considerably more likely to be growing up in a home with both their mother and father present than the children of the poor — who are more often than not living without their fathers. It surprises most people to hear it, but rates of divorce among college-educated women have actually been declining since 1980.

The proportion of degreed women having children outside of marriage, always very low, remains at a very modest 6%, while among those without a high school degree the rate stands at a much, much higher 54%.

In the past, middle America — the report means by that the "moderately educated," those with at least a high school but less than a college degree — resembled the more highly educated in their sexual and marital habits.

No more. In 1982, 13% of the births to those in the economic middle were out-of-wedlock. Today, that number is 44%; that’s a startling increase in such a short period of time. The middle folks are more likely to divorce than both the educated and high school dropouts. Only 58% of the 14-year-old daughters of moderately educated mothers are living with both parents. Not only is that down significantly from 1982 when the number was 74%; it is appreciably closer to the 52% of the daughters of the least educated than it is to the 81% of the girls of the college educated.

The middle Americans in the study are choosing to cohabit rather than to marry; the proportion living together is up 29 percentage points in just 20 years. This increase also well surpasses the numbers for both the most and least educated women.

That is not just surprising; it is deeply threatening to the nation as we know it.

This is, after all, mom and apple pie America; the moderately educated are "the silent majority," "values voters," people who dedicate themselves to the hard work, thrift and delayed gratification that will provide their children a chance to achieve the American Dream. An economy shifting away from manufacturing and a nasty recession has made that dream recede; family breakdown promises to erase it entirely.

Children growing up in single parent homes are at greater risk of a host of social ills, including educational failure and emotional problems. They are also more likely to become single parents themselves.

Making this scenario even more likely are the increasingly permissive attitudes of the moderately educated middle. Americans at all education levels remain fans of marriage; more than three-quarters of them describe it as a very important life goal.

But in other respects it’s the highly educated who wind up sounding traditional. Seventy-six percent of the teenaged children of highly educated parents say they would be embarrassed if they got — or got someone — pregnant. Only 61% of the kids of moderately educated parents said the same. Though premarital sex has become a widely accepted fact of American life, the few who disapprove of it are now about as likely to be from the brie and chardonnay crowd as the Budweiser and Doritos group.

On the subject of divorce, too, it’s the college educated who are trending more socially conservative. Close to half of both groups believe it ought to be harder to get a divorce. But while the highly educated group has grown substantially more anti-divorce, the moderately educated have not. One more example of the twilight of middle American traditionalism: In 1995, 62% of 25-to-44-year-old moderately educated women reported having three or more sexual partners; by 2008 the number was 70%. Among college grads, on the other hand, the percentages have gone down in the same period, from 59% to 57%.

The title of the National Marriage Project report, "When Marriage Disappears," is an echo of an influential 1996 book by then-University of Chicago sociologist William Julius Wilson, with clear implications for the moderately educated middle. In that work, Wilson argued that the loss of manufacturing jobs was helping to create a dearth of "marriageable men," mainly among minorities. Not only were there few men with a steady job earning decent wages in the poor, black neighborhoods of the nation’s cities; their joblessness coincided with more criminal and anti-social behavior. As women looked over the pool of available husbands, they often chose to have children on their own — that is, outside of marriage.

Wilson's thesis helped to explain the ballooning rates of single-parent families among blacks; today, 72% of black children are born to unmarried mothers.

Though the numbers are lower for middle American children, the trends, unfortunately, now look similar. But Wilson's theory tells us only part of the story. It underplays just how much marital breakdown is itself a cause of downward mobility. Manufacturing jobs may have disappeared, but knowledge economy jobs have grown in number and complexity. Those jobs require higher education, which in turn requires good primary and secondary schools, which for their part depend on families who support their children’s stability and learning. As families unravel, so do the chances of children thriving in school and, ultimately, in a complex economy.

Not so long ago, the moderately educated were the imagined heroes of the American Dream. With marriage disappearing, that dream is ending.

Read more: The end of middle America? Working class white families are unraveling before our eyes

**Dale Mabry** · 12-19-2010, 08:38 AM

What will become of Frodo or that guy from Rudy?

**MDR** · 12-19-2010, 10:21 AM

The "American Dream" is dead. Love my country, hate my government.

**LAM** · 12-19-2010, 10:38 AM

Originally Posted by MDR

The "American Dream" is dead. Love my country, hate my government.

I feel the same way except I don't hate my government I hate the fact that leaders in our government handed the reigns of this country over to corporate special interest groups which use the middle class as an ATM. we started down a path I see no return from

**MDR** · 12-19-2010, 11:36 AM

Originally Posted by LAM

I feel the same way except I don't hate my government I hate the fact that leaders in our government handed the reigns of this country over to corporate special interest groups which use the middle class as an ATM. we started down a path I see no return from

Exactly. The political process has been corrupted by special interests and powerful lobbyists. It is all about money these days. I also think that the government has gotten in the habit of lying to mainstream America to avoid explaining their actions. Maybe I'm just niave, but honesty and personal honor seems to have disappeared from American government, at all levels, and that really bothers me.

**IronAddict** · 12-19-2010, 01:06 PM

I Echo the sentiments of the last two posters...It's getting harder and harder to even watch these news shows nowadays, cause they're liars both left and right..and they don't care that people caught on, cause it gets even worse .. we can't do shit about it....

**Dark Geared God** · 12-19-2010, 01:43 PM

Its all them mexicans fault taking all the white ladies, with they're tacos burritos and low riders

**KelJu** · 12-19-2010, 01:45 PM

They took er jobs!

**Dark Geared God** · 12-19-2010, 01:51 PM

they took Ur jurb

**DOMS** · 12-19-2010, 02:29 PM

Originally Posted by Dark Geared God

Its all them mexicans fault taking all the white ladies, with they're tacos burritos and low riders

**Big Smoothy** · 12-19-2010, 10:14 PM

Min0's article, OP:

Not so long ago, the moderately educated were the imagined heroes of the American Dream. With marriage disappearing, that dream is ending.

The dream is ended in earnest, now. Meaning, it's become apparent to much of the US population.,

But the "American Dream" started eroding in the mid-1970s. Slowly eroding.

Up to the 1970s, an American working & middle class person could learn a trade, get a job, buy a house in a decent neighborhood, and send their kids to a decent public school. These families could even save some funds for the kids college or future training. The working parents actually had a thing called a pension.

What is happening now is no surprise. Perhaps the surprise among some is that that pace during this "Great Recession" has been accelerated.

**min0 lee** · 12-20-2010, 06:23 AM

Originally Posted by Big Smoothy

Min0's article, OP:

The dream is ended in earnest, now. Meaning, it's become apparent to much of the US population.,

But the "American Dream" started eroding in the mid-1970s. Slowly eroding.

Up to the 1970s, an American working & middle class person could learn a trade, get a job, buy a house in a decent neighborhood, and send their kids to a decent public school. These families could even save some funds for the kids college or future training. The working parents actually had a thing called a pension.

What is happening now is no surprise. Perhaps the surprise among some is that that pace during this "Great Recession" has been accelerated.

That's how I remember it.

**Big Smoothy** · 12-20-2010, 07:16 AM

^ Min0 it's true.

And the New York metro area was a prime example.

Fast forward to to recent years.

People were making tens of millions per year on Wall Street, while blue-collar jobs were disappearing, and white collar jobs were slipping down the rungs of the economic ladder with pay and benefit.

The Income Gap in the US is the widest in the industrialized world.

For stability, a nation needs a solid middle class that comprises a certain (and sizeable portion) of the population.

What will the US look like in 25 years? What will life be like in 15, 20, or 25+ years?

**DOMS** · 12-20-2010, 07:59 AM

Originally Posted by min0 lee

That's how I remember it.

And what happened during the 50s and 60s? Women joined the workforce. If one person could afford to pay $10,000 for a house, then a two income family could afford to pay $20,000.

That's one of the two major changes to income between the prosperous late 40s, 50s, and early 60s. The other is the government took mortgage and car payments out of the standard of living.

**LAM** · 12-20-2010, 08:43 AM

Originally Posted by Big Smoothy

^ Min0 it's true.

And the New York metro area was a prime example.

Fast forward to to recent years.

People were making tens of millions per year on Wall Street, while blue-collar jobs were disappearing, and white collar jobs were slipping down the rungs of the economic ladder with pay and benefit.

The Income Gap in the US is the widest in the industrialized world.

For stability, a nation needs a solid middle class that comprises a certain (and sizeable portion) of the population.

What will the US look like in 25 years? What will life be like in 15, 20, or 25+ years?

for those on the lower quintiles of the middle income and lower, not very good...these families don't have much room for upward mobility in the US

the job perspective for many new students is not very good and getting worst every year. not sure about other sectors of work but here in Vegas all of my teacher friends have to get their Masters just to make a decent wage. then many of them can't even afford the loan payments so they have to return to school to differ the payments, etc.

I joined the Navy in '89 after graduating from college 1 year early. my best friend and I were both on delayed entry. he was working in construction and I was landscaping in the day and we both worked at the same restaurant as cooks at night 3-5 days a week to supplement our income. back then just about all my friends in the Philly suburbs that wanted to work multiple jobs could, today that is impossible as there are just too many people fighting for just one job.

the US has a post-industrial economy right now that is fueled by consumer spending and consumption. the only problem is that the majority of the people doing the spending can not afford it and are doing so at the expense of their own savings, retirement funds, etc. and these are 2 income families. 55% of single mothers currently "retire" in poverty right now. there will be plenty of elderly homeless people in the US in the next 25-40 years.

**min0 lee** · 12-20-2010, 08:52 AM

Two obvious things that need to be addressed, the out sourcing of our jobs and the illegal migration.

**LAM** · 12-20-2010, 08:55 AM

Originally Posted by DOMS

And what happened during the 50s and 60s? Women joined the workforce. If one person could afford to pay $10,000 for a house, then a two income family could afford to pay $20,000.

That's one of the two major changes to income between the prosperous late 40s, 50s, and early 60s. The other is the government took mortgage and car payments out of the standard of living.

from 1970 to 2010 the price of the average home in the US has increased 1000% when wages in many markets have remained stagnant when adjusted. the average cost of a new car is almost 50% of the average per capita income in the US.

good and services have been priced out of the range of those that make modest wages

**LAM** · 12-20-2010, 09:21 AM

Originally Posted by min0 lee

Two obvious things that need to be addressed, the out sourcing of our jobs and the illegal migration.

illegal immigration really only effects the competition for low wage jobs. this of course hurts those directly out of high school, HS drop outs, elderly workers trying to supplement SS, etc.

but then when teen kids have to stay at home longer this causes a greater financial drain on the parents, etc.

the loss of manufacturing jobs in the US has been replaced by service jobs and the difference in the wages is only about 10%. off the top of my head I don't know the numbers in regards to white collar jobs that have "gone away" in the US but we all know this has and/is happening.

Most of the problems in the US can be solved by increasing education but we need to invest in our countries future as this process takes generations. China has invested almost 2T dollars in education while the US continues to cut funding from the university level on down.

**GearsMcGilf** · 12-20-2010, 09:21 AM

Originally Posted by min0 lee

Two obvious things that need to be addressed, the out sourcing of our jobs and the illegal migration.

Werd. What might happen if we had a 20% tariff on Chinese made goods or Jap/German vehicles? The worst thing that might happen is our relations would be hurt with them, but we'd have an industry back in this country. The idea that there is really a such thing as free trade is asinine. It benefits the fat cat execs but fucks the average consumer and worker at home. One thing for sure is the Chinese are fucking us with no kissing or reach around.
China's Not-So-Fair Trade - Forbes.com

**DOMS** · 12-20-2010, 09:44 AM

Originally Posted by LAM

from 1970 to 2010 the price of the average home in the US has increased 1000% when wages in many markets have remained stagnant when adjusted. the average cost of a new car is almost 50% of the average per capita income in the US.

How about from 1970 to 1996? You know, before the housing bubble? You can't use the housing bubble as a reference for expenses in the US. Especially for the average family that just buys a home and stays in it for a decade or more.

It was an artificially manipulated part of the economy that was disjointed from everything else. Even then, there was plenty of reasonably prices housing, and employment, if you could do without living in the top 20 largest cities in the nation (which is kind of a big place).

I stand by my point of women in the workplace and the removal of items form the standard of living as being the real motivators of the change of the cost of living in the USA.

Originally Posted by LAM

good and services have been priced out of the range of those that make modest wages

Really? Have you actually shopped for vegetables, fruits, or meats? It's affordable to even someone living on minimum wage. Can you buy fillet minion and cherry tomatoes? Of course not, but you can buy lower cuts of beef and regular tomatoes. And I'm not even talking about the low cost of the pre-made processes crap that you can buy.

What you can't do if you make minimum wage is eat out everyday. We have to spend time learning how to cook and actually doing the cooking. Oh, the humanity! We can't survive that way! It's what killed off the dinosaurs!

Don't confuse the cost of being lazy with the cost of the actual basic goods. We have the cheapest cost of food on the planet.

**DOMS** · 12-20-2010, 09:52 AM

Originally Posted by LAM

illegal immigration really only effects the competition for low wage jobs.

No, you're absolutely wrong.

It puts a multi-billion dollar drain on the whole country in the form of higher infrastructure expenses on prisons, hospitals, welfare, and policing. As well as effecting the number of murders, rapes, burglaries, traffic accidents, insurance costs (home, auto, and medical) and quality of life statistics such as infant mortality. Just to name a few things.

Low wages, my ass...

**DOMS** · 12-20-2010, 09:54 AM

Also, as for the topic of middle class America. The more low class illegals that come here, the lower the percentage of middle class Americans. That's basic math.

**LAM** · 12-20-2010, 09:55 AM

Originally Posted by DOMS

How about from 1970 to 1996? You know, before the housing bubble? You can't use the housing bubble as a reference for expenses in the US. Especially for the average family that just buys a home and stays in it for a decade or more.

It was an artificially manipulated part of the economy that was disjointed from everything else. Even then, there was plenty of reasonably prices housing, and employment, if you could do without living in the top 20 largest cities in the nation (which is kind of a big place).

I stand by my point of women in the workplace and the removal of items form the standard of living as being the real motivators of the change of the cost of living in the USA.

Really? Have you actually shopped for vegetables, fruits, or meats? It's affordable to even someone living on minimum wage. Can you buy fillet minion and cherry tomatoes? Of course not, but you can buy lower cuts of beef and regular tomatoes. And I'm not even talking about the low cost of the pre-made processes crap that you can buy.

What you can't do if you make minimum wage is eat out everyday. We have to spend time learning how to cook and actually doing the cooking. Oh, the humanity! We can't survive that way! It's what killed off the dinosaurs!

Don't confuse the cost of being lazy with the cost of the actual basic goods. We have the cheapest cost of food on the planet.

the housing bubble was a credit bubble...credit markets were intentionally opened up so home owners could use the equity in their homes to continue spending. middle class America is out of money and the government is well aware of this. food costs can vary but overall energy (food, heating/cooling/gas, etc) costs increase annually.

all this data on consumer spending and consumption and wages is on the BEA website. the post WWII economy slowed to a crawl in the 70's and the US has been living on credit and debt ever since.

we are also a nation of excess which is why the US with 4% of the world's population consumes 20% of the crude oil...this coincides with the increasing obese population in the US and the love of excess here. we need to get out of the mentality of "more of everything is better" because it isn't.

from a purely social perspective the US has much higher crime, etc. than many other countries with far more liberal governments. were are plagued with numerous social problems (decline of the family, violent crimes, etc.) and economic problems now in the US

**Dark Geared God** · 12-21-2010, 06:14 PM

Originally Posted by LAM

illegal immigration really only effects the competition for low wage jobs. this of course hurts those directly out of high school, HS drop outs, elderly workers trying to supplement SS, etc.

but then when teen kids have to stay at home longer this causes a greater financial drain on the parents, etc.

the loss of manufacturing jobs in the US has been replaced by service jobs and the difference in the wages is only about 10%. off the top of my head I don't know the numbers in regards to white collar jobs that have "gone away" in the US but we all know this has and/is happening.

Most of the problems in the US can be solved by increasing education but we need to invest in our countries future as this process takes generations. China has invested almost 2T dollars in education while the US continues to cut funding from the university level on down.

nOW YOUR GETTING gych

**LAM** · 12-21-2010, 07:12 PM

Originally Posted by DOMS

No, you're absolutely wrong.

It puts a multi-billion dollar drain on the whole country in the form of higher infrastructure expenses on prisons, hospitals, welfare, and policing. As well as effecting the number of murders, rapes, burglaries, traffic accidents, insurance costs (home, auto, and medical) and quality of life statistics such as infant mortality. Just to name a few things.

Low wages, my ass...

the Federal Minimum wage determines the rate of pay so remember that an illegal with a SS# makes the same hourly wage as an US Citizen. if you are talking about construction jobs being taken by illegal there are tons of studies on the net about this and the actual rate is very low across the nation and only occurs in specific trades.

in regards to illegal immigrants and crime all that data is on the DOJ website and is severely exaggerated by the media and various politicians, etc.

Census data has the drain on the federal budget deficit as being only 10B in 2002. not sure that that number is now but in terms of the budget deficit 10's of billions is a joke. not saying that illegal immigration isn't a problem because it it but it has nothing at all to do with why the US is in the predicament its in economically.

**DOMS** · 12-21-2010, 08:08 PM

Originally Posted by LAM

the Federal Minimum wage determines the rate of pay so remember that an illegal with a SS# makes the same hourly wage as an US Citizen. if you are talking about construction jobs being taken by illegal there are tons of studies on the net about this and the actual rate is very low across the nation and only occurs in specific trades.

I wasn't talking about jobs at least. That ranks near the bottom of my concern about illegals.

Originally Posted by LAM

in regards to illegal immigrants and crime all that data is on the DOJ website and is severely exaggerated by the media and various politicians, etc.

If if it's exaggerated by 100%, that's to say if it's only 50% of what they report, it's still horrific.

I've seen first hand the effects of illegals time and again. Screw what's reported, I've seen it. The gun crime in Salt Lake City (where I lived for 8 years) had only 1 or 2 gun-related crimes per year. As of 2007, there was a gun-related incident nearly every weekend. And it was alway "Juan" or "Carlos".

Hell, I live in a very, very nice neighborhood. In the past three years, there's only been one burglary or theft. A house a couple of blocks over had their floors retiled by Mexicans. Two night later, their house was burglarized. The police went to the Mexicans' home and recovered most of the property.

As for my own house, I had experienced zero crime in three years. Then two or three (I can't tell) Mexican families moved into a rental. In the last week I've had a shovel, a sled, and bicycle stolen off my front lawn.

Yes, those are anecdotal, but I'll refer to the reports that you say are exaggerated.

Originally Posted by LAM

Census data has the drain on the federal budget deficit as being only 10B in 2002. not sure that that number is now but in terms of the budget deficit 10's of billions is a joke. not saying that illegal immigration isn't a problem because it it but it has nothing at all to do with why the US is in the predicament its in economically.

10 billion for what? The cost of welfare? That can only be a single aspect of the effect of illegals. I've read through report after report. No sum total of the effects of Illegals on the USA is anywhere near that low.

**LAM** · 12-22-2010, 08:32 AM

we caused the problem with illegal immigration, if small business owners that needed low skilled workers wouldn't of hired them initially there would not have as much of a problem with low-skilled immigrants now.

but this is exactly why we need to invest in education and create a healthier environment for innovation here in the US. low skilled workers and wages regardless if they are illegal or not do not contribute much in terms of taxes.

**sprayherup** · 12-22-2010, 08:41 AM

And when the govt takes away the mortgage interest deduction very soon it'll be the nail in the coffin...

**Big Smoothy** · 12-22-2010, 08:53 AM

Originally Posted by sprayherup

And when the govt takes away the mortgage interest deduction very soon it'll be the nail in the coffin...

This was discussed in in the mid-90s, then dropped.

Is this being discussed again with a trial balloon?

I don't think it will fly now. In the future? Surely. The UK did it years ago.

More money for the gov to take. Sad, but true.

**sprayherup** · 12-22-2010, 09:28 AM

Originally Posted by Big Smoothy

This was discussed in in the mid-90s, then dropped.

Is this being discussed again with a trial balloon?

I don't think it will fly now. In the future? Surely. The UK did it years ago.

More money for the gov to take. Sad, but true.

Yeah it's being talked about again. I hope it doesn't fly. If it does why even bother buying a house? It'll just be another huge expense. It'll be more cost effective to rent.

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