Thread: US Economy: next 5 years - You Tell Us

Originally Posted by oufinny

LAM, I know you are a smart guy but you tend to SLAM any idea from the right just as easily as I do some from the left, admit is already .

they offer "fixes" but no solutions...anything that does not involve putting more money into the hands of labor is not a solution as that IS one of the primary problems. there is always going to be wage inequality but now it is so extreme it is causing systemic economic problems that are not going to go away until this is addressed.

to date I can not find one piece of legislation from either side that put more money in the pockets of the "middle class" that didn't just transfer the problem into the government like the EITC. government is the middle man between labor and capital and it's time that capital starts paying more to labor and not just shifting the liability onto government. apparently everyone has forgotten about the basics and things like the economic law of diminishing returns.

This is what LAM, has been saying. Only 3 companies are noted, but accurate general points.

A boom in corporate profits, a bust in jobs, wages

'I've never seen labor markets this weak in 35 years of research'


U.S. corporations such as McDonald's are expanding overseas, not so much at home.
By PAUL WISEMAN

The Associated Press
updated 7/22/2011


WASHINGTON — Strong second-quarter earnings from McDonald's, General Electric and Caterpillar on Friday are just the latest proof that booming profits have allowed Corporate America to leave the Great Recession far behind.

But millions of ordinary Americans are stranded in a labor market that looks like it's still in recession. Unemployment is stuck at 9.2 percent, two years into what economists call a recovery. Job growth has been slow and wages stagnant.

"I've never seen labor markets this weak in 35 years of research," says Andrew Sum, director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University.

Wages and salaries accounted for just 1 percent of economic growth in the first 18 months after economists declared that the recession had ended in June 2009, according to Sum and other Northeastern researchers.

In the same period after the 2001 recession, wages and salaries accounted for 15 percent. They were 50 percent after the 1991-92 recession and 25 percent after the 1981-82 recession.

Corporate profits, by contrast, accounted for an unprecedented 88 percent of economic growth during those first 18 months. That's compared with 53 percent after the 2001 recession, nothing after the 1991-92 recession and 28 percent after the 1981-82 recession.

What's behind the disconnect between strong corporate profits and a weak labor market? Several factors:

* U.S. corporations are expanding overseas, not so much at home. McDonalds and Caterpillar said overseas sales growth outperformed the U.S. in the April-June quarter. U.S.-based multinational companies have been focused overseas for years: In the 2000s, they added 2.4 million jobs in foreign countries and cut 2.9 million jobs in the United States, according to the Commerce Department.
* Back in the U.S., companies are squeezing more productivity out of staffs thinned out by layoffs during Great Recession. They don't need to hire. And they don't need to be generous with pay raises; they know their employees have nowhere else to go.
* Companies remain reluctant to spend the $1.9 trillion in cash they've accumulated, especially in the United States. They're unconvinced that consumers are ready to spend again with the vigor they showed before the recession, and they are worried about uncertainty in U.S. government policies.

"Lack of clarity on a U.S. deficit-reduction plan, trade policy, regulation, much needed tax reform and the absence of a long-term plan to improve the country's deteriorating infrastructure do not create an environment that provides our customers with the confidence to invest," Caterpillar CEO Doug Oberhelman said.

Caterpillar said second-quarter earnings shot up 44 percent to $1.02 billion— though that still disappointed Wall Street. General Electric's second-quarter earnings were up 21 percent to $3.76 billion. And McDonald's quarterly earnings increased 15 percent to $1.4 billion.

A boom in corporate profits, a bust in jobs - Business - Stocks & economy - msnbc.com

Smoothy check out the links below

Corporations make big money out of wars US is losing

Link to download a short video clip
http://rt.com/files/news/us-defense-...flv?download=1

^ Read the article, but the video failed.

Thanks, LAM.

The more Americans that become aware of this, the better. The MIC is a powerful machine. And, greedy.

Originally Posted by Big Smoothy

^ Read the article, but the video failed.

Thanks, LAM.

The more Americans that become aware of this, the better. The MIC is a powerful machine. And, greedy.

It's the same video that is embedded on the web page, try that.

the MIC controls televised media in the US and that is where the vast majority of Americans get almost all there information on economics and politics. the US ranks at the bottom of OECD countries in terms of the economic IQ and critical thinking, ideology trumps empirical data and logic here.

you should hear the garbage that comes out of the neo-liberal talking heads on the news and political tv shows, not a SINGLE one of them ever mentions wages, it's all about taxes.

An article. listing 10 reasons.....http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43946055...s-us_business/


But hey dumbshits....the US never got out of the first recession to begin with. Cunts.

10 signs the double-dip recession has begun

There is no double-dip recession. We've been in a depression since 2008 and there is no end in sight. This is the 2nd great depression.

Originally Posted by GearsMcGilf

There is no double-dip recession. We've been in a depression since 2008 and there is no end in sight. This is the 2nd great depression.

yup.

Originally Posted by GearsMcGilf

There is no double-dip recession. We've been in a depression since 2008 and there is no end in sight. This is the 2nd great depression.

it's also a global depression across all OECD countries not just in the US.

the US will get hit the worst because we have had the lowest wages for the longest time and started out with the highest poverty rate to begin with. we also have the lowest percentage of GDP going towards social protection out of the OECD.

Originally Posted by LAM

it's also a global depression across all OECD countries not just in the US.

the US will get hit the worst because we have had the lowest wages for the longest time and started out with the highest poverty rate to begin with. we also have the lowest percentage of GDP going towards social protection out of the OECD.

Dude, you're focusing on OECD countries. If I had to live in poverty, I'd rather do it in the US or a EU country, where I could still have a vehicle, a cell phone, and my own automobile. Come visit me in China. I can take you 100 miles outside of Beijing and show you what real poverty looks like.

Originally Posted by GearsMcGilf

Dude, you're focusing on OECD countries. If I had to live in poverty, I'd rather do it in the US or a EU country, where I could still have a vehicle, a cell phone, and my own automobile. Come visit me in China. I can take you 100 miles outside of Beijing and show you what real poverty looks like.

I've been to China and some ex-2nd world & 3rd world country's and the poverty in all of them suck. different countries have higher and lower levels of poverty for different reasons. some to a lack of industry combined with high population growth and others more resource and politically based.

As noted by some of us on this thread, economists like to say that there was a "first" recession that "ended," and now there is "another one happening."

Ahh....defining a "recession" based on 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Pretty convenient definition. Just like the Unemployment rate, inflation, etc.
---

America’s ‘Great Recession’ even greater than thought
Max Whittaker/Reuters files

Reuters Jul 29, 2011
By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON — The “Great Recession” was even greater than previously thought, and the U.S. economy has skated uncomfortably close to a new one this year.


New data on Friday showed the 2007-2009 U.S. recession was much more severe than prior measures had found, with economic output declining a cumulative of 5.1% instead of 4.1%.

The report also showed the current slowdown began earlier and has been deeper than previously thought, with growth in the first quarter advancing at only a 0.4% annual pace.

The data indicated the economy began slowing in the fourth quarter of last year before high gasoline prices and supply chain disruptions from Japan’s earthquake had hit, suggesting the weakness is more fundamental and less temporary than economists had believed.

The annual revisions of U.S. GDP data from the Commerce Department showed economic growth contracted at an annual average rate of 0.3% between 2007 and 2010. Output over that stretch had previously been estimated to have been flat.

At the depth of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2008, output plummeted at an annual rate of 8.9% — the steepest quarterly decline since 1958, and 2.1 percentage points more than previously reported.

The recession was already the deepest since the Great Depression and, while it still pales in comparison, the data help explain why it is taking so long to shake off its legacy.

“The general picture of the recession remains pretty much the same, it was a record decline before and now it is a even bigger decline,” Steven Landefeld, the director of the department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, told reporters.


America’s ‘Great Recession’ even greater than thought | Economy | Financial Post

OK, the 'big' debt ceiling news story is over. Now....back to reality. The Supple Managers' Purchasing Index is another one of those sites you can bookmark to get a quick check on how things are going...or...not going.
--


Manufacturing plunge a harsh dose of reality
Even without debt-ceiling uncertainty, economic data disappoint
By Kevin G. Hall
McClatchy Newspapers
Tuesday, Aug. 02, 2011

WASHINGTON The pending congressional deal to raise the national debt ceiling removes a layer of uncertainty that's hovered over the struggling economy, one that saw new signs of stalling Monday.

The 11th-hour deal that President Barack Obama announced Sunday night provided the briefest of bumps to stocks early Monday morning. But after opening higher, all three major indices immediately turned south after glum news from the manufacturing front.

The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index was down more than expected, to 50.9 from the previous month's rating of 55.3. A measurement of less than 50 usually signals an economy in contraction, so the plunge in the manufacturing number was a splash of cold water in the faces of investors.

"Now that the debt-ceiling deal (assuming it passes) has averted an imminent catastrophe, attention can return to the underlying state of the economy. The news there isn't good," Nigel Gault, the chief U.S. economist for forecaster IHS Global Insight, wrote Monday in a note to investors.

He added that manufacturing, "like the rest of the economy, looks stalled right now. And it's hard to see how the debt-ceiling deal will improve things - it just avoids making things much worse."

The congressional deal also appears to do little to address the big cost drivers behind growing federal budget deficits, such as Medicare, Medicaid and defense. This led many economists to worry that at least one of the three major credit-rating agencies - Standard & Poor's - might still downgrade the gold-plated AAA rating that U.S. government bonds historically get.

Read more: Manufacturing plunge a harsh dose of reality | CharlotteObserver.com & The Charlotte Observer Newspaper

OK, the 'big' debt ceiling news story is over. Now....back to reality. The Supple Managers' Purchasing Index is another one of those sites you can bookmark to get a quick check on how things are going...or...not going.
--


Manufacturing plunge a harsh dose of reality
Even without debt-ceiling uncertainty, economic data disappoint
By Kevin G. Hall
McClatchy Newspapers
Tuesday, Aug. 02, 2011

WASHINGTON The pending congressional deal to raise the national debt ceiling removes a layer of uncertainty that's hovered over the struggling economy, one that saw new signs of stalling Monday.

The 11th-hour deal that President Barack Obama announced Sunday night provided the briefest of bumps to stocks early Monday morning. But after opening higher, all three major indices immediately turned south after glum news from the manufacturing front.

The Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index was down more than expected, to 50.9 from the previous month's rating of 55.3. A measurement of less than 50 usually signals an economy in contraction, so the plunge in the manufacturing number was a splash of cold water in the faces of investors.

"Now that the debt-ceiling deal (assuming it passes) has averted an imminent catastrophe, attention can return to the underlying state of the economy. The news there isn't good," Nigel Gault, the chief U.S. economist for forecaster IHS Global Insight, wrote Monday in a note to investors.

He added that manufacturing, "like the rest of the economy, looks stalled right now. And it's hard to see how the debt-ceiling deal will improve things - it just avoids making things much worse."

The congressional deal also appears to do little to address the big cost drivers behind growing federal budget deficits, such as Medicare, Medicaid and defense. This led many economists to worry that at least one of the three major credit-rating agencies - Standard & Poor's - might still downgrade the gold-plated AAA rating that U.S. government bonds historically get.

Read more: Manufacturing plunge a harsh dose of reality | CharlotteObserver.com & The Charlotte Observer Newspaper

I thought that I'd throw this in also. I posted David Walkers 60 Minutes interview 3 1/2 years ago (anyone can do a search).

Here's more news from Walker.
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US Less Than 3 Years Away From Being Greece: Walker
Tuesday, 2 Aug 2011

By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Staff Writer

The US is only a few years away from reaching the same debt levels that pushed Greece to the brink of ruin, former comptroller general and head of the Comeback America Initiative David Walker said.

As the ratio of its debt to gross national product eclipsed 100 percent and surged toward 150 percent, Greece has twice in the last two years nearly defaulted on its debt. Only successive bailout packages from the European Union and International Monetary Fund prevented catastrophe.

When tolling up all the US debts [cnbc explains] , including huge unfunded liabilities to Social Security and Medicare, the US is on dangerous ground, Walker said in a CNBC interview.

"We are less than three years away from where Greece had its debt crisis as to where they were from debt to GDP," he said.

Entire: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43984077

Washington spent money of people that aren't even born yet. We are completely fucked.

US debt problem visualized: Debt stacked in 100 dollar bills

Biggest problem with this country is tax money isn't going to Defense or roads, its going right into someone else's pocket that didn't work for the money.

Politicians take money from us, then give it to someone else (stealing money to buy votes)

SSDI, section8, medicare, medicaid, pensions, even public k-12 education... Someone want to tell me why I should have to go to work and put in hours so the money can go right into the pocket of someone else sitting at home doing nothing?

Originally Posted by Big Smoothy

I thought that I'd throw this in also. I posted David Walkers 60 Minutes interview 3 1/2 years ago (anyone can do a search).

Here's more news from Walker.
--
US Less Than 3 Years Away From Being Greece: Walker
Tuesday, 2 Aug 2011

By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Staff Writer

The US is only a few years away from reaching the same debt levels that pushed Greece to the brink of ruin, former comptroller general and head of the Comeback America Initiative David Walker said.

As the ratio of its debt to gross national product eclipsed 100 percent and surged toward 150 percent, Greece has twice in the last two years nearly defaulted on its debt. Only successive bailout packages from the European Union and International Monetary Fund prevented catastrophe.

When tolling up all the US debts [cnbc explains] , including huge unfunded liabilities to Social Security and Medicare, the US is on dangerous ground, Walker said in a CNBC interview.

"We are less than three years away from where Greece had its debt crisis as to where they were from debt to GDP," he said.

Entire: News Headlines

Yep, and who's gonna bail out the USA?

Originally Posted by Big Smoothy

including huge unfunded liabilities to Social Security and Medicare, the US is on dangerous ground

this is all due to the declining GDP and loss of tax revenue.

25% of medicare costs are directly linked to administrative costs. the billing and accounting systems used in healthcare are just plan inefficient and wasteful. the US also has the least amount of Dr's (as a %) in the OECD yet we have one of the largest populations. US Dr's on average get paid 3X their foreign counterparts because of this. if they let in more foreign born Dr's to work in the private sector (and not just the VA hospitals) that would reduce the cost of healthcare by an additional 25%.

healthcare is very expensive in the US because it is designed to be that way, but it doesn't have to...

Originally Posted by mryar

Biggest problem with this country is tax money isn't going to Defense or roads, its going right into someone else's pocket that didn't work for the money.

Politicians take money from us, then give it to someone else (stealing money to buy votes)

SSDI, section8, medicare, medicaid, pensions, even public k-12 education... Someone want to tell me why I should have to go to work and put in hours so the money can go right into the pocket of someone else sitting at home doing nothing?

you have been brainwashed by the anti-government idiots on tv. only a small percentage of the US population is constantly on gov assistance something like 4%. the rest fall in and out of poverty depending on the economy. all these stats are in the yearly poverty report that the census puts out.

to say that because a few people abuse a system and it should be discontinued is ridiculous. you could apply that "logic" to just about everything: guns, drunk drivers and cars, bad banks and wallstreet traders, etc.

Originally Posted by LAM

you have been brainwashed by the anti-government idiots on tv. only a small percentage of the US population is constantly on gov assistance something like 4%. the rest fall in and out of poverty depending on the economy. all these stats are in the yearly poverty report that the census puts out.

to say that because a few people abuse a system and it should be discontinued is ridiculous. you could apply that "logic" to just about everything: guns, drunk drivers and cars, bad banks and wallstreet traders, etc.

Regardless of the amount, when it comes to things like social security, if you never worked you have not earned the right to receive this. It is not an entitlement program, it is a privilege that is earned because you paid for it. The thought somebody never works yet collects full benefits disgusts me and A LOT of Americans.

Originally Posted by oufinny

Regardless of the amount, when it comes to things like social security, if you never worked you have not earned the right to receive this. It is not an entitlement program, it is a privilege that is earned because you paid for it. The thought somebody never works yet collects full benefits disgusts me and A LOT of Americans.

So the best thing to do is gut the program so the 99.99999% of people using it properly suffer?

Originally Posted by oufinny

Regardless of the amount, when it comes to things like social security, if you never worked you have not earned the right to receive this. It is not an entitlement program, it is a privilege that is earned because you paid for it. The thought somebody never works yet collects full benefits disgusts me and A LOT of Americans.

Yea no shit, but just like LAM/dale said, it's not the majority.

There's always gonna be people taking advantage of any system. It's called survival instincts.

Are you gonna whine about abusers of other systems?

Originally Posted by oufinny

Regardless of the amount, when it comes to things like social security, if you never worked you have not earned the right to receive this. It is not an entitlement program, it is a privilege that is earned because you paid for it. The thought somebody never works yet collects full benefits disgusts me and A LOT of Americans.

nobody collects SS unless you have earned enough credits over the course of the lifetime, that's the way the program has always been.

http://www.ssa.gov/pubs/10072.html

Originally Posted by LAM

nobody collects SS unless you have earned enough credits over the course of the lifetime, that's the way the program has always been.

How You Earn Credits

Yeah, but there are 35 year old, unemployed black people with iPhones and Escalades lighting their cigars with the social security checks they get every month.

Originally Posted by Dale Mabry

Yeah, but there are 35 year old, unemployed black people with iPhones and Escalades lighting their cigars with the social security checks they get every month.

is not SS but welfare, they are totally different systems. welfare can be scammed while SS can not it is based on tax returns from the IRS.

I don't understand why people are "jealous" of someone because they drive one of the worst SUV's ever made and live in the ghetto...so what if they might have a nice vehicle, they are never financially independent, nor do they ever take vacations or get to retire....I laugh at them because they think they are getting over, but in the long run not even close...

Originally Posted by GearsMcGilf

There is no double-dip recession. We've been in a depression since 2008 and there is no end in sight. This is the 2nd great depression.

No it's not. Not at all. Do you see a mile long food line anywhere. Lets not get carried away in the government advocated fear mongering. Sure families are suffering, but during the great depression people were actually dying from hunger. I don't expect the American school system to teach their student's accurate history though.