Romney leads in Rasmussen polling one day before election

**Big Pimpin** · 11-05-2012, 10:37 AM

FWIW: Rasmussen was dead the day before the election in 2006, 2008 and 2010 but I guess we'll have to see tomorrow night.

The Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday, Nov. 5, 2012 ? one day before the election - gives GOP presidential challenger Mitt Romney 49% of the nation?s voters? support to President Barack Obama?s 48%. One percent favors another candidate while 1% are undecided as to who they will support on Election Day.

Obama and Romney tied in Sunday's Washington Post-ABC News Poll

This poll indicates a one percent decline for President Obama in the past day.

According to Scott Rasmussen, the polling web site will conduct the final tracking poll regarding the presidential election of 2012 this evening and post the results Tuesday morning. Additionally, later today there will be final polls conducted on three of the swing states: Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire.

The data includes not only people are likely voters but also people who have already voted. Romney leads with people who say they are likely to vote while Obama leads with people who have already voted.

Of the voters in the most recent daily poll, 39% say they are Democrats and 37% say they are Republicans. Mitt Romney has a 9% advantage with those who are not affiliated with either of the nation?s two primary political Parties.

Interestingly, Rasmussen reports that 27% of Americans report that this presidential election has had a negative impact on people?s relationship with a friend or a family member.

In today?s report, Rasmussen makes a comment regarding the importance of race in this presidential election. Last election, 74% of the voters were white. Opinions regarding an increase or decrease in the percentage of voters being white in this election varies. Previously, it has been reported by various pollsters that nearly all black voters are voting for Obama. It was also previously reported that less than half of white voters support Obama. Thereby, Rasmussen suggests that Obama will lose if white voters come out in force while Romney will lose if they do not.

According to Rasmussen, 46% say they are quite certain they are voting for Romney and 45% are certain they are voting for Obama.

It should be noted that in the final days leading up to the national election, Rasmussen doubles the number of polls it takes each night. Rather than the 500 daily contacts made worked into a three-day rolling average to arrive at its figures, Rasmussen is now contacting 1,000 people each day to arrive at the results of their three-day rolling average.

In recent state polls, most state contests are very close. As of Friday, Ohio is now tied with 50% supporting both candidates. Another poll result released on Friday is in regard to Michigan which has Obama at 52% and Romney at 47%. As of a poll conducted Thursday, in Wisconsin, both candidates have 49%. In other polls taken recently, Colorado is for Romney, 50% to 47%. Florida favors Romney, 50% to 48%. Iowa favors Romney, 49% to 48%. Nevada favors Obama 50% to 48%. New Hampshire favors Romney 50% to 48%. Virginia is for Romney, 50% to 48%.

In the all-important Electoral College count, President Barack Obama has 237 of the 270 needed to win, according to Rasmussen?s count. Mitt Romney now has 206. However, only 172 Electoral College votes are ?safely? Obama?s at this time and only 167 are ?safely? Romney?s as many state races are close.

A recent poll shows that 54% of voters want the Affordable Care Act, commonly referred to as Obamacare, repealed. This shows the same lack of support that has been polled since the law?s passage in March of 2010.

Eighty percent of voters think the law will likely be repealed if Mitt Romney is elected and Republicans take control of Congress in the 2012 national election. Half of those polls are opposed to the bill because they believe it is going to increase health care costs and the national deficit.

A recent poll shows that 51% of voters have a favorable opinion of Romney while 45% have a favorable opinion of Obama. In terms of election excitement, 67% of voters are excited about the choice between the two candidates ? Romney and Obama ? while 29% are not. Only 38% of independents ? those not affiliated with the two major parties ? say they are excited about the election.

President Obama has 97% of the Democrats? support while Romney has 90% of the Republicans? support. In terms of unaffiliated voters, Romney has an 11-point lead.

Of the many polls released throughout the election process, Rasmussen is one of very few that follows the desires of the electorate from day to day. Due to its extensive data collection process, Rasmussen is one of the most followed and respected presidential tracking polls.

In 2008, Rasmussen?s poll just prior to the election matched the final results in the national election.

**LAM** · 11-05-2012, 10:40 AM

popular vote does not equal more electorates

**Big Pimpin** · 11-05-2012, 10:46 AM

Originally Posted by LAM

popular vote does not equal more electorates

Yes, we know.

**DetMuscle** · 11-05-2012, 10:47 AM

Originally Posted by LAM

popular vote does not equal more electorates

In some states it does. Some states the electorals must side with the popular. Lot of people dont know that

**Little Wing** · 11-05-2012, 10:50 AM

ElectoralVote

**Little Wing** · 11-05-2012, 10:56 AM

Breaking down Mitt Romney's and President Obama's plausible chances of victory Tuesday reveal that the president has a much easier task of obtaining the required 270 electoral votes than his Republican challenger.

It seems the Romney camp has decided false hope is better than despair.

**DetMuscle** · 11-05-2012, 12:29 PM

^ but we Republicans are rigging the vote. I just the left the vote rigging meeting last night. We will win.

**ALBOB** · 11-05-2012, 01:28 PM

Originally Posted by Big Pimpin

FWIW: Rasmussen was dead the day before the election in 2006, 2008 and 2010

Yeah, I'm thinking if he was dead in '06, he was probably still dead in '08 & '10.

Has anyone told him he's dead yet?

**Swiper** · 11-05-2012, 03:36 PM

Rasmussen is the most accurate pollster in presidential elections.

**irish_2003** · 11-05-2012, 03:42 PM

i hope the black panthers try to use voter intimidation against me

**Big Smoothy** · 11-05-2012, 05:17 PM

Originally Posted by Big Pimpin

FWIW: Rasmussen was dead the day before the election in 2006, 2008 and 2010 but I guess we'll have to see tomorrow night.

The Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday, Nov. 5, 2012 ? one day before the election - gives GOP presidential challenger Mitt Romney 49% of the nation?s voters? support to President Barack Obama?s 48%. One percent favors another candidate while 1% are undecided as to who they will support on Election Day.

Big Pimpin,

There are 2 issues with this poll.

1. It's a national poll, which means it honestly, irrelevant. The relevant poll are now in a few of the battleground states. It's all about getting to 270.

2. Rasmussen has had different results that other polls and has been 'off' a bit (was off in 2008).

Personally, I follow realclearpolitics.com and sometime 'fivethirtyeight.'

I am not big on Nate Silver, but he has been spot on before.

Google Nate Silver if you want: He does a mathematical polling model.

**FUZO** · 11-05-2012, 06:06 PM

Originally Posted by little wing

breaking down mitt romney's and president obama's plausible chances of victory tuesday reveal that the president has a much easier task of obtaining the required 270 electoral votes than his republican challenger.

It seems the romney camp has decided false hope is better than despair.

seems you cant read correctly

**Little Wing** · 11-05-2012, 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by FUZO

seems you cant read correctly

and paralyzing your dick with steroids is rocket science? just because you can't use yours is no reason you need to be hanging all over mine. back off.

**Little Wing** · 11-05-2012, 07:54 PM

Note about Rasmussen

Rasmussen and Bias

After the 2010 elections, the New York Times statistics wizard, Nate Silver, analyzed the polls produced by various polling organizations, including Rasmussen Reports, which is the house pollster for Fox News. Silver's analysis covered only polls taken during the final three weeks of the campaign and compared them to the actual election results. For polls taken much earlier, say in June, no one knows what the true sentiment of the electorate was, so there is no way to tell if the polls were accurate or not. Also, any pollster deliberately falsifying the results for partisan advantage would be advised to reduce the bias as the election neared. After all, no one can tell if a June poll is accurate but everyone can tell if a poll released the day before the election is accurate.
Silver analyzed 105 polls released by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, for Senate and gubernatorial races in numerous states across the country. The bottom line is that on average, Rasmussen's polls were off by 5.8% with a bias of 3.9% in favor of the Republican candidates.

**Gissurjon** · 11-05-2012, 08:02 PM

Originally Posted by little wing

and paralyzing your dick with steroids is rocket science? Just because you can't use yours is no reason you need to be hanging all over mine. Back off.

oooooooooooo snap!

**Swiper** · 11-05-2012, 09:01 PM

Originally Posted by Little Wing

Note about Rasmussen

Rasmussen and Bias

After the 2010 elections, the New York Times statistics wizard, Nate Silver, analyzed the polls produced by various polling organizations, including Rasmussen Reports, which is the house pollster for Fox News. Silver's analysis covered only polls taken during the final three weeks of the campaign and compared them to the actual election results. For polls taken much earlier, say in June, no one knows what the true sentiment of the electorate was, so there is no way to tell if the polls were accurate or not. Also, any pollster deliberately falsifying the results for partisan advantage would be advised to reduce the bias as the election neared. After all, no one can tell if a June poll is accurate but everyone can tell if a poll released the day before the election is accurate.
Silver analyzed 105 polls released by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, for Senate and gubernatorial races in numerous states across the country. The bottom line is that on average, Rasmussen's polls were off by 5.8% with a bias of 3.9% in favor of the Republican candidates.

Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster in the 2008 presidential election.

**Little Wing** · 11-05-2012, 09:16 PM

even a broken clock is right twice a day. Rasmussen will poll a ten year old if they answer the phone. i do know they are uncannily accurate despite flaws.

**Big Smoothy** · 11-05-2012, 10:23 PM

Lot of pollsters are predicting different results, and some by wide margins. After the results come in, we'll know who was correct or closest and who was waaaayy off.

Huffpo-
Obama 277, Romney 191- tossers 70
Huffpo has it safe for Obama.

Rasmussen-
Obama 237, Romney 206- tossers 95
Rassie has it wide open- but Obama the favorite.

Unskewed has it-
Obama 179, Romney 359
A total landslide for Romney.

Real Clear Politics-
Obama 201, romney 191- tossers 146
Wishy washy, but wide open.

Nate Silver-
Obama 307, Romney 231

**Little Wing** · 11-05-2012, 10:31 PM

Today Nate Silver gives Obama a 92.2 percent chance of winning.

Nate Silver Gives Obama a 92.2 Percent Chance of Winning - Politics - The Atlantic Wire

**troubador** · 11-05-2012, 10:35 PM

You guys could just wait one day.

**LAM** · 11-06-2012, 12:06 AM

Originally Posted by irish_2003

i hope the black panthers try to use voter intimidation against me

odds are you will try to cast your vote at a one of those mini-photo booths they have at the mall, they wouldn't need to waste their time.

**Big Smoothy** · 11-06-2012, 01:50 AM

Originally Posted by Little Wing

Today Nate Silver gives Obama a 92.2 percent chance of winning.

Nate Silver Gives Obama a 92.2 Percent Chance of Winning - Politics - The Atlantic Wire

Nate Silver could end up with egg on his face. We'll see. And Troubadour is right....we could just wait one day. Oh, well. I got time on me hands.

*Note: Michale Gerson is a former speech writer for GWB and inserted many "christian code words" into GWB's speeches. I think he's a prick who sux.

Michael Gerson
Opinion Writer
The trouble with Obama?s Silver lining
By Michael Gerson,

On the eve of the election, Nate Silver ? baseball forecaster, online poker wiz, political handicapper ? placed President Obama?s chances of returning to office at 86.3 percent. Not 86.1 percent. Not 87.8 percent. At 86.3 percent.

Silver?s prediction is not an innovation; it is trend taken to its absurd extreme. He is doing little more than weighting and aggregating state polls and combining them with various historical assumptions to project a future outcome with exaggerated, attention-grabbing exactitude. His work is better summarized as an 86.3 percent confidence that the state polls are correct.

Entire: Michael Gerson: The trouble with Obama’s Silver lining - The Washington Post

**Zaphod** · 11-06-2012, 06:46 AM

Originally Posted by irish_2003

i hope the black panthers try to use voter intimidation against me

They'd tell you to fuck off and you would just turn around and go home.

**FUZO** · 11-06-2012, 08:23 AM

Originally Posted by Zaphod

They'd tell you to fuck off and you would just turn around and go home.

I know Irish he wouldnt turn around it would be you running coward

**Zaphod** · 11-06-2012, 02:39 PM

Originally Posted by FUZO

I know Irish he wouldnt turn around it would be you running coward

You're the same way. All talk.

**jay_steel** · 11-06-2012, 03:04 PM

Originally Posted by Zaphod

They'd tell you to fuck off and you would just turn around and go home.

Logically I would just ignore it and then post how fucked up they are on this forum if that happened to me, but realistically I am extremely calm until I get set over and then I will do some thing stupid like walk up to a group of 5 by my self. On drol, dbol, deca, and test... There is NO way I could keep a level head...

**Big Smoothy** · 11-06-2012, 05:05 PM

7 am where I am at Wed, Nove 7th....looks like it's tight enough to go on for a while before some states declare a weiner....I mean winner.

**hoyle21** · 11-07-2012, 05:19 AM

Originally Posted by Swiper

Rasmussen is the most accurate pollster in presidential elections.

Ate they still?

**Dale Mabry** · 11-07-2012, 06:02 AM

I guess we're done hearing how accurate Rasmussen is.

**Swiper** · 11-07-2012, 07:44 AM

Originally Posted by hoyle21

Are they still?

Originally Posted by Dale Mabry

I guess we're done hearing how accurate Rasmussen is.

yeah they lost some credibility this election.

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