Reply With Quoteodds are now 50/50
yes they changed, but your odds aren't better
The Monty Hall Problem
Results 1 to 7 of 7
Thread: The Monty Hall Problem
-
07-23-2005, 07:48 PM #1Senior Member ELITE MEMBER
- Join Date
- Dec 2002
- Posts
- 4,545
- Rep Points
- 3875126
The Monty Hall Problem
I just read this on Wiki and want to see who here knows the answer:
You are on Let's Make a Deal. There are three doors, behind two of them, there is a goat. Behind one, there is a new car.
You pick a door.
Monty then opens one of the other doors, revealing a goat.
Monty offers you the chance to switch doors. Do you do it? Do your odds of winning the car improve by switching?My Carb Cycling Progress - you can't hide from the numbers.
-
07-23-2005, 08:17 PM #2the unbanned
- Join Date
- May 2005
- Gender
- Location
- consumerville!
- Posts
- 11,492
- Rep Points
- 199306468
-
07-23-2005, 10:58 PM #3Registered Abuser
- Join Date
- Jan 2004
- Gender
- Location
- Inner Space
- Posts
- 7,334
- Rep Points
- 146340275
before your odds were 1 in 3 and now it is 1 in 2.
Your odds have improved.
-
07-24-2005, 01:07 AM #4Bohemian Extraordinaire ELITE MEMBER
- Join Date
- Aug 2003
- Gender
- Location
- Mēns Incognita
- Posts
- 25,581
- Rep Points
- 396412648
You start with 1/3 chances, eliminate one and now it's 2/3 odds.
Coarse edged youth, the irish pendants string from their smiles
not yet plucked as to slacken the seams
and drag down the features of age,
no folds or creases from unkempt wear
eyes of tranquilty, crystalline-beads
no sign of despair in their hair, nor their hearts
but oh they have yet to be experienced and that makes aging so very worth it...ML circa2012
-
07-24-2005, 01:12 AM #5the unbanned
- Join Date
- May 2005
- Gender
- Location
- consumerville!
- Posts
- 11,492
- Rep Points
- 199306468
nah dude, if he would've showed you the goat before letting you pick your chances would of improved.
Originally Posted by myCATpowerlifts
initially you had 1 in 3 chances, 33.33%. you then made your pick.he then shows you a goat, now the 2 remaining are each 33.33% out of a possible 66.66% or 50-50
so you have your pick of a door, and you can switch, its now 50-50, your chances havnt improved, but they have from your fist pick
its tricky, but from your logic ur asuming that he revealed the goat before you picked.
-
07-24-2005, 06:10 PM #6Senior Member ELITE MEMBER
- Join Date
- Dec 2002
- Posts
- 4,545
- Rep Points
- 3875126
The answer is:
Once he shows you a goat, your odds of winning a car DOUBLE if you change doors. It is not intuitive, but true.
You have a 1 in 3 chance if you stay and a 2 in 3 chance if you change.
I will find the link to the explanation.My Carb Cycling Progress - you can't hide from the numbers.
-
07-24-2005, 06:12 PM #7Senior Member ELITE MEMBER
- Join Date
- Dec 2002
- Posts
- 4,545
- Rep Points
- 3875126
My Carb Cycling Progress - you can't hide from the numbers.
Similar Threads
-
US Government - Spending Problem or a Corporate Taxing Problem? Part 2
By LAM in forum Open ChatReplies: 11Last Post: 04-21-2011, 12:05 AM -
US Government - Spending Problem or a Corporate Taxing Problem?
By LAM in forum Open ChatReplies: 0Last Post: 04-14-2011, 08:26 AM -
Hall of shame
By TJ Cline in forum Open ChatReplies: 7Last Post: 12-05-2005, 03:26 PM -
NFL Hall inductees '04
By gr81 in forum SportsReplies: 0Last Post: 08-08-2004, 12:46 AM
Posting Permissions
DISCLAIMER:
All health, fitness, diet, nutrition & supplement information presented on IronMagazineForums.com's pages is intended as an educational resource and is not intended as a substitute for proper medical advice. We do not condone the use of anabolic steroids (AAS), all information about AAS is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consult your physician or health care professional before performing any of the exercises, or following any diet, nutrition or supplement advice described on this website. As well as any exercise technique or regimen, diet, supplement, etc., particularly if you are pregnant or nursing, or if you are elderly or have chronic or recurring medical conditions. Discontinue any exercise that causes you pain or severe discomfort and consult a medical expert. The statements made about products have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration (U.S.). They are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any condition or disease. Please consult with your own physician or health care practitioner regarding the suggestions and recommendations made at IronMagazineForums.com. Neither the author of the information, nor the producer, nor distributors of such information make any warranty of any kind in regard to the content of the information presented on this website. Except as specifically stated on this site, neither IronMagazineForums.com, nor any of its authors or other representatives will be liable for damages arising out of, or in connection with the use of this site. This is a comprehensive limitation of liability that applies to all damages of any kind, including (without limitation) compensatory, direct, indirect or consequential damages, loss of data, income or profit, loss of or damage to property and claims of third parties. Sponsors pay for advertising space, we have no affiliation with the companies that have banners displayed on our websites. Please be advised it is your responsibility to check the laws that govern your country, state, or province in regards to items offered by some companies you may read about on this site.