YES...
This is no longer about a few low-wage or manufacturing jobs. Now, one out of three jobs is at risk
Economic evolution is inevitable. Companies will always pursue the lowest-cost structure, which means less skilled work will move out of the U.S. to emerging economies. And that's a good thing, because living standards around the world will rise. Workers in developing nations will get new and higher-paying jobs, and consumers in the U.S. will be able to buy products that are cheaper than if they were made at home. The shift first occurred in textiles and other manufacturing jobs, followed by low-end services such as telemarketing and data entry. Now, it's moving up the labor food chain, leaving white-collar workers increasingly nervous.
Is the angst justified? It's probably too early to know for sure whether this latest shift in jobs is qualitatively different from past offshore movements. But it certainly feels that way. Outsourcing is hitting skilled jobs that were once thought "safe" across a far wider swath of white-collar America. What's more, the new outsourcing is occurring at a breathtaking pace. Only a decade ago, writing computer code and software-application maintenance were considered complex and secure ways for aspiring Americans to make a living. Now, it's considered "rote work," and companies such as Microsoft Corp. and Netscape Communications (AOL ) Corp. have it done everywhere from Ireland to India.
The extent to which industries are moving a wide array of mid-level professional jobs offshore is troubling. We're talking about computers and other high tech, business services, and finance. Add those industries up, along with factory jobs, and you find that one out of three private-sector jobs is now at risk of being outsourced. And that doesn't count back-office functions such as accounts payable, marketing and sales, and human resources that exist in U.S.-grounded industries such as retailing, health care, and recreation. All of them could be shipped overseas in the name of cost-cutting.
From just-in-time inventories to nanosecond technologies, business practices now turn on a dime. As soon as work can be made routine -- whether it's reading an X-ray or creating blueprints -- the job can potentially be outsourced. That promises big, and often disquieting, changes ahead for many. It means the career you studied for -- and spent oodles of tuition money on -- in college probably won't sustain you for your working life. Someone in India or China will be able to do it far more cheaply.
Another reason for the speed and size of this shift is the nature of service work, especially in our Internet world. Manufacturers must spend years and billions of dollars erecting plants overseas and setting up distribution chains for supply and shipments before moving work offshore. But service jobs need much less infrastructure. Many need only a desk, computer, and Net access.
To be sure, much of today's job jitters are rooted in this rudderless economy. But a structural change is also afoot that could result in a worsening job picture 10 or 15 years down the road. Overall, the global economy will do much better, but the U.S. workforce may face frequent career changes and downward pressures on wages through every part of the economy subject to competition from foreign labor. And that's just as baby boomers will be counting on younger workers to pay a lot of money into the Social Security fund.
What can be done now to prevent such a dreary outcome? There are no quick or easy fixes. Legislation blocking jobs from moving overseas would amount to 1930s-style protectionism. "It would be foolish to stop companies from outsourcing," says Robert B. Reich, former Labor Secretary under President Bill Clinton. "It would make our companies less competitive."
Some in Congress suggest tax credits for companies who keep jobs in the U.S. The risk there is that companies will extort bigger breaks -- even for positions they never plan to move.
Instead, more attention should be paid to educating the U.S. workforce. America is on the cutting edge of the information and technology economy. But others are catching up. India and China award more natural science and engineering degrees than we do.
The only way the U.S. will keep one rung ahead of the rest of the world is to ensure that we have a broadly educated workforce that keeps learning. At the corporate level, training programs would help current employees move up to better positions. And the government should overhaul jobless benefits to allow displaced workers the time and money to enter new careers.
Optimists argue that the U.S. will keep its innovation lead because it has invented new products before. But that underestimates the risk of being overtaken as skill and education levels rise elsewhere. Unless we focus on maintaining a better-educated workforce, that risk will only rise.
By Kathleen Madigan
Business Outlook Editor Madigan still believes in free trade.



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