GOP bracing for worst

**min0 lee** · 11-05-2006, 08:05 AM

War, scandals point to defeat
BY THOMAS M. DeFRANK
DAILY NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF
WASHINGTON - Two days before the polls open, Democrats are poised to ride an unpopular war and GOP congressional scandals to a stinging rebuke of President Bush in midterm elections.
Barring a major reversal in the final hours of an exceedingly nasty campaign season, Republicans expect to lose the House on Tuesday for the first time since 1994.
"Keep practicing this phrase: Speaker Pelosi," said an aide to a Republican governor, referring to the liberal Democrat who would become the first female Speaker of the House.
GOP desperation - and Democratic determination to finally win - is evident in some of the ads flooding the airwaves, a below-the-belt barrage that has even jaded political veterans shaking their heads in laughter or dismay.
Political experts agree that massive voter discontent over Iraq has demolished the calculation of Bush and his political gurus that the "security issue" would be their trump card for the third straight election of the post-9/11 era.
"Iraq is the dominant issue, and two-thirds of the country believes we have failed there," a senior GOP official said. "Failure is never good at election time."
Republicans hope Bush's eleventh-hour campaign blitz will energize just enough members of the party's dispirited base to tip several close races and contain the damage. They predict that Bush's weekend incursion into Missouri's most conservative enclaves will turn out just enough voters to save Sen. Jim Talent - and the Senate.
Democrats counter that Bush is an enormous GOP albatross. The party has spent millions of dollars on ads linking Bush with Republican candidates.
One of the GOP's savviest vote-counters predicted Democrats will gain at least 25 House seats - comfortably more than the 15 needed to oust the GOP from power and propel Harlem's Charles Rangel to chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee.
The GOP situation is more hopeful in the Senate, where most political pros still predict the Democrats will fall just short of flipping the six seats needed to capture the upper chamber.
"It's hanging by a thread," said Jennifer Duffy, who monitors Senate races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter. "The margin will be one seat either way."
The Democrats are likely to win at least four Senate seats, but need two of three in Virginia, Missouri and Tennessee to gain the majority.
Some Republicans continue to believe their vaunted get-out-the-vote operation, spearheaded by five frenzied days of Bush campaigning in 10 bellwether states, will yet surprise pundits who have largely counted the Republicans out.
"We've pulled it off in the past two elections," a White House strategist said, "and we can do it again, this time under far worse conditions."
That's an understatement: Republican candidates are saddled not only with voter anger with Iraq and Bush, but also a string of scandals analysts say have soured many voters on the status quo.
Most recently, the congressional-page scandal that cost Florida Rep. Mark Foley his safe seat provided fresh fodder for the Democrats' "culture of corruption" attack line.
Moreover, the Foley affair, which dominated the political debate for two weeks, detracted from Bush's spirited "terror card" offensive after Labor Day that was beginning to close the gap for Republicans.
"People have tuned him out," said legendary political consultant Stu Spencer, who helped manage campaigns for three Republican presidents. "Even if he holds the Senate, he's dead politically for his last two years."

**min0 lee** · 11-05-2006, 08:06 AM

With hundreds of races across the country up for grabs on Tuesday, here's a guide of key races to watch:
GOVERNORS
California: Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is expected to easily be a two-Term-inator.
Texas: Loopy novelist and singer Kinky Friedman has entertained Texas with his wacky campaign for governor, but he's expected to come up short.
SENATE
Connecticut: Sen. Joe Lieberman, who lost the Democratic primary, is expected to keep his seat by running as an independent against anti-war candidate Ned Lamont.
Missouri: Race has been roiled by a Michael J. Fox TV ad in which the Parkinson's-afflicted actor endorsed Democrat Claire McCaskill, who supports the state's referendum on embryonic stem-cell research. Republican incumbent James Talent opposes it.
New Jersey: Democrats must keep this hotly contested seat if they have any hopes of controlling the Senate. Dem Bob Menendez is battling Tom Kean Jr., son of popular former GOP governor.
Ohio: Series of state scandals and Iraq war have been bad news for GOP Sen. Mike DeWine, who's badly trailing Democratic rival Rep. Sherrod Brown in polls.
Pennsylvania: Voters seem fed up with outspoken conservative Rick Santorum, the third-ranking Republican in the Senate. Democrat Bob Casey, whose father was a longtime governor, is expected to prevail.
Tennessee: Democratic Rep. Harold Ford is vying to become the first black elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction. He's trailing Bob Corker.
Virginia: GOP Sen. George Allen was seen as a presidential contender, but after some bizarre comments, anti-war Democrat Jim Webb has made the race a tossup.
Rhode Island: Lincoln Chafee, the most liberal GOP senator and the only one to vote against the Iraq war, is likely to lose because of his GOP link to President Bush.
Montana: GOP Sen. Conrad Burns trying to overcome ties to Bush and lobbying scandal to fend off Democrat Jon Tester.
HOUSE
New York: Democrats may really strike back in the Empire State. The party likes the looks of three races, but five or six are in play.
Connecticut: There are three Republican House seats in the Nutmeg State and they are all in deep trouble.
Pennsylvania: Democrats are intensely focused on three incumbents in Republican-leaning districts within short drives of Philadelphia.
Ohio: The state that helped Bush to his second term in office could lose three GOP seats.
Indiana: Three districts could change from red to blue if everything goes wrong for the GOP.
Illinois: Iraq war vet and amputee Tammy Duckworth is leading a Democratic charge and two GOP seats are up for grabs.
Texas: Indicted ex-Majority Leader Tom DeLay pulled out of the race too late to put another GOP name on the ballot.
Florida: Ex-Rep. Mark Foley quit in the congressional page sex scandal — too late to take his name off the ballot, and two other seats are in trouble for the GOP.
North Carolina: Ex-pro quarterback Heath Shuler is an evangelical Christian and a Democrat and leading in Asheville.
ISSUES
Stem cells: Missouri votes on stem cell research.
Abortion: South Dakota votes on complete abortion ban.
Gay marriage: Eight states vote on banning gay marriage.
Minimum wage: Six states vote to raise minimum wage.

Originally published on November 5, 2006

**DOMS** · 11-05-2006, 08:12 AM

"Prepare for the worst. Expect the best."

**viet_jon** · 11-05-2006, 02:04 PM

10 consecutive political threads.

**min0 lee** · 11-05-2006, 02:08 PM

Originally Posted by Viet_Jon

10 consecutive political threads.

It's that time of the year when Friends get together and chat about good times.

**chems=strength** · 11-05-2006, 02:16 PM

Politics in this country is a weird game, and clearly out of hand. If nothing else, we should have been taught by politics of the last few years is that NEVER AGAIN should one Party - either of them - have total control!

**viet_jon** · 11-05-2006, 02:30 PM

Just kidding mino. You've earned the right to post whatever you like around here.

I have no say. Viet_jon is still in newb mode.

**min0 lee** · 11-05-2006, 02:34 PM

Originally Posted by viet_jon

Just kidding mino. You've earned the right to post whatever you like around here.

I have no say. Viet_jon is still in newb mode.

There's no such thing, only the Mods and Rob run this place and you still have the right to voice your opinion.

How you use that right is on you. Newb....please.

**KelJu** · 11-05-2006, 10:03 PM

It is ingrained into my brain to think the worst. I want to have faith in our government. I want to root for a side. I want to believe that I am not being fucked by every decision made in congress and the Whitehouse.
Maybe one day when I have enough cash to where I don’t panic every fucking time my car makes a funny noise, I will be a little less pessimistic.

**min0 lee** · 11-05-2006, 10:19 PM

Originally Posted by KelJu

It is ingrained into my brain to think the worst. I want to have faith in our government. I want to root for a side. I want to believe that I am not being fucked by every decision made in congress and the White house.
Maybe one day when I have enough cash to where I don’t panic every fucking time my car makes a funny noise, I will be a little less pessimistic.

So freaking true, if I get lucky like I find money or I get a good deal on something or when things are going real good I expect a crash, so sort of bad event that will be hard to fix.

paranoia

**KelJu** · 11-05-2006, 10:24 PM

Originally Posted by min0 lee

So freaking true, if I get lucky like I find money or I get a good deal on something or when things are going real good I expect a crash, so sort of bad event that will be hard to fix.

paranoia

I don't know about you, but my paranoia comes from being shit on over and over again.

**min0 lee** · 11-05-2006, 10:25 PM

Originally Posted by KelJu

I don't know about you, but my paranoia comes from being shit on over and over again.

Yup, same here.

**andyo** · 11-06-2006, 08:44 AM

I hope they lose all seats in both houses, and I hope all the Dems lose all of their seats too, let the independents rule!

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