Do humans have any impact on Global Warming?

BigDyl · 02-26-2007, 11:06 AM

Discuss.

DOMS · 02-26-2007, 11:12 AM

Where's the "Has yet to be determined" option?

goob · 02-26-2007, 11:15 AM

I think they do. But just how much is unknown, could be negligable, could be huge.

NeilPearson · 02-26-2007, 11:19 AM

Where is the "it is irrelevant" option?

BigDyl · 02-26-2007, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DOMS

Where's the "Has yet to be determined" option?

It's a yes or no question.

BigDyl · 02-26-2007, 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeilPearson

Where is the "it is irrelevant" option?

If humans do have an impact on it, then it's relevent.

BigDyl · 02-26-2007, 11:29 AM

An Inconvient Truth is a good movie.

It even won an Oscar.

DOMS · 02-26-2007, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigDyl

It's a yes or no question.

Next poll: Has BigDyl stopped beating his boyfriend?

Polls are only as good as their selection pool and their questions.

goob · 02-26-2007, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DOMS

Next poll: Has BigDyl stopped beating his boyfriend?

Polls are only as good as their selection pool and their questions.

What ABC's?????
Not from their last altrication.....

NeilPearson · 02-26-2007, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigDyl

If humans do have an impact on it, then it's relevent.

Why? It doesn't really matter if we are having an effect right now. Even if we are we won't be having an effect in another 20 years... so it doesn't really matter.

BigDyl · 02-26-2007, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeilPearson

Why? It doesn't really matter if we are having an effect right now. Even if we are we won't be having an effect in another 20 years... so it doesn't really matter.

Where did you hear this?

NeilPearson · 02-26-2007, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigDyl

Where did you hear this?

Lots of places. The writing is on the wall. The technology is getting there. The world needs to double it's amount of energy available in the next 20 years to keep up with growth. That is simply not achievable with fossil fuels. Nuclear is very unpopular... this means there is going to be a lot of money available for alternate energy. Solar cells are getting smaller and more efficient every year. Carbon nanotubes are starting to appear in solar cells which boosts their efficiency greatly. At that does not even mention hydrogen fuel cells.

So here is the trend... Solar is getting cheaper, more efficient and more widely available (not to mention more socially acceptable)

Fossil Fuels are getting more expensive, the quality is going down as the 'good' reserves are being used up first. They are also getting less available as we burn them and as wars make it more troublesome and expensive to extract it.

Couple that with exponentially shorter development times as technology progresses and it is going to happen. It has to... not because we want to save the environment or be responsible but because there is money to be made in alternate energy.

Take a look at this trend:

http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicato...tor12_data.htm

It's not a linear trend. Fossil fuel growth doesn't have this same kind of a curve.

Technology growth is an exponential curve made up from a series of S curves. A technology starts out slow and gradually builds then as it is begins to work and become profitable, it goes through an exponential growth period. As the limits of that technology are reached the curve slows down and you get an S shaped curve. But the amazing thing is that as that technology starts to slow down, a newer technology always emerges with a new S curve that starts to take off as the old one flattens. If you average these S curves together, you will notice that the overall trend is exponential and the new technology increases what the old one can do by several orders of magnitude.

We have seen the effects of this technology expansion on computation already. We started out with manual computations. They were slow... pencil and paper type of transactions. This lasted thousands of years. Electromechanical technology (punch cards) increased our computational power. These got faster and faster on an S curve but eventually topped out where relays took over and gave a new fresh S curve... which was replaced by S curves offered by vacuum tubes, then transistors, and eventually integrated circuits. Now as the physical limits of transistors are starting to be seem, new technologies in nanotech and quantum computing are starting to emerge promising to carry on the exponential scale

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:PPTMooresLawai.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acceler...rating_Returns

This is not just in computing. This trend can be seen in ALL forms of technology... it is just the most obvious in computing since that technology is the furthest along in its exponential curve. Many of the curves that look kind of linear are really exponential, they just look like the start of the curve we saw in early computing. It is exponential, though... and that will be much more obvious in the next 20-50 years.

The same kind of curve is now obvious in wireless computing.

And in 20 years, it will be obvious in energy production too. We are simply at a shifting point between fossil and clean energy production.

largepkg · 02-26-2007, 01:07 PM

Great post!

zombul · 02-26-2007, 01:33 PM

I'm really glad to see an original subject pop up that hasn't been discussed before!

DOMS · 02-26-2007, 01:50 PM

Stop global warming before Greenland thaws out...again.

Goodfella9783 · 02-26-2007, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DOMS

Next poll: Has BigDyl stopped beating his boyfriend?

Polls are only as good as their selection pool and their questions.

the nut · 02-26-2007, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DOMS

Next poll: Has BigDyl stopped beating his boyfriend?

Polls are only as good as their selection pool and their questions.

There is someone you should meet, Big D!

ReproMan · 02-26-2007, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the nut

There is someone you should meet, Big D!

Ouch.

the nut · 02-26-2007, 02:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DOMS

Stop global warming before Greenland thaws out...again.

They were talking about this on Bill Maher.... very interesting.

BigDyl · 02-26-2007, 02:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zombul

I'm really glad to see an original subject pop up that hasn't been discussed before!

brogers · 02-26-2007, 02:39 PM

Global Warming is the world's newest religion.

BoneCrusher · 02-26-2007, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeilPearson

Lots of places. The writing is on the wall. The technology is getting there. The world needs to double it's amount of energy available in the next 20 years to keep up with growth. That is simply not achievable with fossil fuels. Nuclear is very unpopular... this means there is going to be a lot of money available for alternate energy. Solar cells are getting smaller and more efficient every year. Carbon nanotubes are starting to appear in solar cells which boosts their efficiency greatly. At that does not even mention hydrogen fuel cells.

So here is the trend... Solar is getting cheaper, more efficient and more widely available (not to mention more socially acceptable)

Fossil Fuels are getting more expensive, the quality is going down as the 'good' reserves are being used up first. They are also getting less available as we burn them and as wars make it more troublesome and expensive to extract it.

Couple that with exponentially shorter development times as technology progresses and it is going to happen. It has to... not because we want to save the environment or be responsible but because there is money to be made in alternate energy.

Take a look at this trend:

http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicato...tor12_data.htm

It's not a linear trend. Fossil fuel growth doesn't have this same kind of a curve.

Technology growth is an exponential curve made up from a series of S curves. A technology starts out slow and gradually builds then as it is begins to work and become profitable, it goes through an exponential growth period. As the limits of that technology are reached the curve slows down and you get an S shaped curve. But the amazing thing is that as that technology starts to slow down, a newer technology always emerges with a new S curve that starts to take off as the old one flattens. If you average these S curves together, you will notice that the overall trend is exponential and the new technology increases what the old one can do by several orders of magnitude.

We have seen the effects of this technology expansion on computation already. We started out with manual computations. They were slow... pencil and paper type of transactions. This lasted thousands of years. Electromechanical technology (punch cards) increased our computational power. These got faster and faster on an S curve but eventually topped out where relays took over and gave a new fresh S curve... which was replaced by S curves offered by vacuum tubes, then transistors, and eventually integrated circuits. Now as the physical limits of transistors are starting to be seem, new technologies in nanotech and quantum computing are starting to emerge promising to carry on the exponential scale

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:PPTMooresLawai.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acceler...rating_Returns

This is not just in computing. This trend can be seen in ALL forms of technology... it is just the most obvious in computing since that technology is the furthest along in its exponential curve. Many of the curves that look kind of linear are really exponential, they just look like the start of the curve we saw in early computing. It is exponential, though... and that will be much more obvious in the next 20-50 years.

The same kind of curve is now obvious in wireless computing.

And in 20 years, it will be obvious in energy production too. We are simply at a shifting point between fossil and clean energy production.

The shift in any growth pattern has ALWAYS been industry driven with profit as the primary incentive. I have no recollection of any altruistic contributions to progress in any area of the human development ... it's always been all about the Benjamins. The most powerful people on this planet today are the heads of the oil industry. IF the Bush family dynasty was founded in cosmetics and I asked you about either one of the Georges you'd be all "Bush who?" ... you'd have no idea who I was talking abut. It's only because his family's dynasty was planted in the dusty ground of an oil field that they rose to power and political affluence. It would be a pretty safe bet to make that BushCo and the rest of the monsters that own that human food chain right now do not want to see any theoretical exponential shift away from fossil fuels come along and knock a dent in their profit/power structure.

Ain't gonna happen without a serious paradigm shift. This shift will not happen with the current political system in place ... the game is rigged. A green policy is what we need to own a cleaner planet, but that green policy would mean that gas in America would be the same as it is in other places around the planet. $5 a gallon ... any votes for $5 a gallon? Anyone?

Brachiisaurus · 02-26-2007, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DOMS

Where's the "Has yet to be determined" option?

DOMS, I remember your view on this from the last thread.

But voting no? I mean do you really believe we have ZERO effect?
I don't think humans "caused" global warming. It is a natural process.

But we did add at least a little to it, IMO.

View Poll Results: ?
Yes	22	75.86%
No	7	24.14%
Voters: 29. You may not vote on this poll

02-26-2007, 11:12 AM	#2
DOMS Metrosexual Elite Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: In a van, down by the river... Posts: 21,511 Photos: 5	Where's the "Has yet to be determined" option?
	I never lie because I don't fear anyone. You only lie when you're afraid.—John Gotti

02-26-2007, 01:50 PM	#15
DOMS Metrosexual Elite Member Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: In a van, down by the river... Posts: 21,511 Photos: 5	Stop global warming before Greenland thaws out...again.
	I never lie because I don't fear anyone. You only lie when you're afraid.—John Gotti

02-26-2007, 02:39 PM	#21
brogers Registered User Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 1,300	Global Warming is the world's newest religion.
brogers Registered User Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 1,300

02-26-2007, 11:15 AM	#3
goob Smartass anthropologist Elite Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Anywhere, everywhere, nowhere.... Posts: 5,995	I think they do. But just how much is unknown, could be negligable, could be huge.

02-26-2007, 11:19 AM	#4
NeilPearson Registered User Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 2,284	Where is the "it is irrelevant" option?

02-26-2007, 01:07 PM	#13
largepkg Senior Fucknut Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: S FLA Posts: 3,044 Photos: 2	Great post!

02-26-2007, 01:33 PM	#14
zombul SB MUSCLE REP Elite Member Join Date: Jun 2006 Location: Power Rack Posts: 1,937	I'm really glad to see an original subject pop up that hasn't been discussed before!

02-26-2007, 03:42 PM	#24
NeilPearson Registered User Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Phoenix, AZ