American Empire, Lifestyle, & Peak Oil Theory

maniclion · 04-16-2008, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeilPearson

True enough... but it is still getting better and better. Much of the technology that makes solar feasible does not come from research into solar energy. A lot of it just comes from the microprocessor industry. Government rebates and tax credits help a lot and can speed up the process but without them, the enabling technologies are still developed and it will still happen... it just might take a little longer.

Ultimately the dollar drives everything. As fossil fuels get more expensive and solar gets cheaper, it will make financial sense for solar and then it is game over for fossil fuels. It is just a matter of time.

I'm not talking about the development, I am talking about the implementation. I know that the equipment gets better due to advances in electronics and computers. I've watched most inverters go from knobs and dials to lcd and membrane buttons, from pin and jumpers programming to digital menus, from those large coke can capacitors and relays to smaller and fewer digitally controlled. The cells in the modules get thinner and thinner allowing a 20% decrease per year in cost per watt due to less need for silicon per watt, almost like Moore Laws for Processors.....it's all silicon right?

NeilPearson · 04-17-2008, 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by maniclion

I'm not talking about the development, I am talking about the implementation. I know that the equipment gets better due to advances in electronics and computers. I've watched most inverters go from knobs and dials to lcd and membrane buttons, from pin and jumpers programming to digital menus, from those large coke can capacitors and relays to smaller and fewer digitally controlled. The cells in the modules get thinner and thinner allowing a 20% decrease per year in cost per watt due to less need for silicon per watt, almost like Moore Laws for Processors.....it's all silicon right?

Moore's Law... yup that is exactly what it is. Yeah it has been silicon mostly but that is changing too. Bring on carbon nanotubes!

squanto · 04-17-2008, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeilPearson

Much of the technology that makes solar feasible does not come from research into solar energy. A lot of it just comes from the microprocessor industry.

Elaborate on this.

squanto · 04-17-2008, 03:55 PM

What? There's a third page?

Big Smoothy · 04-26-2008, 12:14 AM

Supply cannot meet demand.

Quote:

Oil prices to double by 2012: Canadian study

The price of oil is likely to hit 150 dollars (Canadian, US) a barrel by 2010 and soar to 225 dollars a barrel by 2012 as supply becomes increasingly tight, a Canadian bank said Thursday.

The CIBC report says the International Energy Agency's current oil production estimates overstate supply by about nine percent, since it wrongly counts natural gas liquids -- which are not viable for transportation fuel -- in its numbers.

Analyst Jeff Rubin in his report noted accelerating depletion rates in many of the world's largest and most mature oil fields. He estimates oil production will hardly grow at all, with average daily production between now and 2012 rising by barely a million barrels per day.

"Whether we have already seen the peak in world oil production remains to be seen, but it is increasingly clear that the outlook for oil supply signals a period of unprecedented scarcity," said Rubin.

"Despite the recent record jump in oil prices, oil prices will continue to rise steadily over the next five years, almost doubling from current levels."

The CIBC report also notes that while production increases are at a virtual standstill, global demand continues to grow.

Entire: Oil prices to double by 2012: Canadian study

brogers · 04-26-2008, 09:20 AM

Brazil found giant reserves, we're sitting on tons of oil in the rockies and ANWR, and of course tons of oil offshore. Supply CAN meet demand, but our politicians are tying our hands.

DOMS · 04-26-2008, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brogers

Brazil found giant reserves, we're sitting on tons of oil in the rockies and ANWR, and of course tons of oil offshore. Supply CAN meet demand, but our politicians are tying our hands.

And Bingo was his name-o.

There is a massive amount of shale-oil in the Rockies. So few people seem to know that. Perhaps the government is using that a trump card when oil really does start to become scarce?

danzik17 · 04-26-2008, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DOMS

And Bingo was his name-o.

There is a massive amount of shale-oil in the Rockies. So few people seem to know that. Perhaps the government is using that a trump card when oil really does start to become scarce?

I have no problem with them doing that, but they need to invest more money into finding efficient ways to extract that oil. We may need our current supply of oil in order to begin the process of extracting that oil if you follow what I mean. We need to take pre-emptive action in this case.

I do know that the quantity of shale oil is like triple what all of Saudi Arabia has. We also have Alaska that we can tap, although I'd prefer we didn't just for natural reasons. There is also the Arctic which is becoming more and more available, but I foresee a conflict coming with that oil between the US, Canada, and Russia.

DOMS · 04-26-2008, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danzik17

I have no problem with them doing that, but they need to invest more money into finding efficient ways to extract that oil. We may need our current supply of oil in order to begin the process of extracting that oil if you follow what I mean. We need to take pre-emptive action in this case.

I do know that the quantity of shale oil is like triple what all of Saudi Arabia has. We also have Alaska that we can tap, although I'd prefer we didn't just for natural reasons. There is also the Arctic which is becoming more and more available, but I foresee a conflict coming with that oil between the US, Canada, and Russia.

All very true. Hell, just the open Bearing Straight alone is going going to pose a problem, at least just as much as the minerals.

It's my understanding that the problem behind the high price of oil isn't supply, or even demand, it's the weak US dollar. Any truth to that?

danzik17 · 04-26-2008, 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DOMS

All very true. Hell, just the open Bearing Straight alone is going going to pose a problem, at least just as much as the minerals.

It's my understanding that the problem behind the high price of oil isn't supply, or even demand, it's the weak US dollar. Any truth to that?

There is a lot of truth to that. It's actually a "perfect storm" where we have a combination of decreasing supply, increasing demand, and a weakening dollar.

I don't want to bring this up again, but that's why I am so against the Iraq War. We just don't have the money to finance it, so we are borrowing it from other countries. By doing that, we decrease strength of the dollar because other countries begin to doubt the US government's ability to pay back the loans they have which is what backs our dollar. By that same reasoning, I am against the Fed lending billions of dollars to these huge banks that quite frankly deserve to collapse. I would rather see enforcing the FDIC guarantees in the event that the banks collapse rather than preventing the banks from collapsing in the first place.

Big Smoothy · 04-26-2008, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DOMS

It's my understanding that the problem behind the high price of oil isn't supply, or even demand, it's the weak US dollar. Any truth to that?

To all of the above quotes on other oil finds around the world, and to this post above.

Yes, DOMS.

The weak dollar is a significant part of the rise in oil prices. OPEC countries have been very quietly shifting the allocation of oil bourse (money) from US dollar to Euro. (But don't talk about it in public.)

But....

There are other factors: production. Worldwide production.

The world is using 88 mbp - 88 Million barrels per day.

And this number is rising, and will rise.

And demand, cannot keep up.

Shale in the Dakotas won't do anything to suppress prices. It will be very expensive, logistically and technologically to extract this shale oil. And it will be years down the road before this oil meets the market.

Brazil: this doesn't matter either.

Canadian oil sands: doesn't matter. Expensive, time consuming.

Alaska ANWAR: doesn't matter.

All of the example above, are like putting drops into a big bucket.

I am not being a pessimist. I am not negative.

I am being a realist. I am saying what Matt Simmons, Hubbert, Deffeyes, and Dick Cheney have been saying for years.

$5 dollar per gallon gas will happen within 2-3 years.

HialeahChico305 · 04-26-2008, 03:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Smoothy

$5 dollar per gallon gas will happen within 2-3 years.

Damm........time to trade my lincon towncar for a little ugly toyota. FUCK!.

Big Smoothy · 04-26-2008, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HialeahChico305

Damm........time to trade my lincon towncar for a little ugly toyota. FUCK!.

Honestly, I see $5 per gallon gas happening in the US in less than 2 years.

brogers · 04-26-2008, 11:39 PM

Glad you're an expert with your genius comments like "this doesn't matter" etc. Yes it does matter when Brazil finds a gigantic field of oil which may be the 3rd biggest EVER found, yes it does matter we have tons and tons and tons of oil sitting in the rockies (enough for 110 yrs at present consumption), yes ANWR does matter. These are not insignificant matters, with the price of oil where it is, and rising fast, more supply matters.

We need to tap the resources we have now to alleviate the pressure on our economy, and develop the alternatives (NOT ETHANOL) on the side. There is a wealth of possibilities, I've even heard of using algae to grow fuel.

Big Smoothy · 04-27-2008, 12:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brogers

Glad you're an expert with your genius comments like "this doesn't matter" etc.

It's not about "genius." I am piggy-backing this info from geologists and life-long experts, and oil industry people.

Quote:

Yes it does matter when Brazil finds a gigantic field of oil which may be the 3rd biggest EVER found, yes it does matter we have tons and tons and tons of oil sitting in the rockies

This is not light sweet crude that sits on top. The cost of extraction.

Quote:

(enough for 110 yrs at present consumption)

Oil is not going to run out in our lifetimes. There will be still be oil 200 years from now. But production has already fallen behind demand.

Quote:

yes ANWR does matter. These are not insignificant matters, with the price of oil where it is, and rising fast, more supply matters.

It's the amount of supply. And it isn't enough.

Quote:

We need to tap the resources we have now to alleviate the pressure on our economy, and develop the alternatives (NOT ETHANOL) on the side. There is a wealth of possibilities, I've even heard of using algae to grow fuel.

I agree with you that ethanol subsidies in the US, which started in 1995, have created many problems, and this has even caused wheat to go up.

More research is being done for energy alternatives because of the necessity and potential profits involved. Too bad it didn't start before the peak.

brogers · 04-27-2008, 08:56 AM

Cost of extraction/processing is becoming a lot less of an issue as the price is going $120/barrel+. That's the whole point.

Big Smoothy · 04-27-2008, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brogers

Cost of extraction/processing is becoming a lot less of an issue as the price is going $120/barrel+. That's the whole point.

This is part of the point. Yes, higher prices mean more motivation. Rightfully, so.

But how long does it take, and how much will it cost to go deep and implement the technology needed?

I'll post more article tomorrow.

maniclion · 04-28-2008, 02:10 AM

Ethanol is a horrible idea, they end up putting more energy into it than they get back from it.....

"Adding up the energy costs of corn production and its conversion to ethanol, 131,000 BTUs are needed to make 1 gallon of ethanol. One gallon of ethanol has an energy value of only 77,000 BTU."

danzik17 · 04-28-2008, 07:05 AM

Not only that but we have a food crisis going on right now. I'm sure we can find a better use for all of that farmland than burning it in our cars.

DOMS · 04-28-2008, 07:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by danzik17

Not only that but we have a food crisis going on right now. I'm sure we can find a better use for all of that farmland than burning it in our cars.

Food crisis?

We (the US) produce enough food to overfeed our country, export billions of dollars worth, give to the poor of our country, give to the poor of other countries, and still leave some rotting in the fields.

The only "crisis" is that it costs more to ship and that we can buy less, of crops that we don't produce enough of locally, from third-world countries because of world-wide demand a weak dollar.

It's not pleasant, but it's certainly not a crisis.

NeilPearson · 04-28-2008, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by squanto

Elaborate on this.

It's about silicon, conductors, etc... solar cells are just electronics after all

Big Smoothy · 04-29-2008, 06:19 AM

It's about worldwide demand. Demand has not been dented in the least by higher prices and more production has not happened.

Quote:

By JAD MOUAWAD
April 29, 2008

As oil prices soared to record levels in recent years, basic economics suggested that consumption would fall and supplies would rise as producers drilled for more oil.

But as prices flirt with $120 a barrel, many energy experts are becoming worried that neither seems to be happening. Higher prices have done little to suppress global demand or attract new production, and the resulting mismatch has sent oil prices ever higher.

That has translated into more pain at the pump, with gasoline setting a fresh record of $3.60 a gallon nationwide on Monday. Experts expect prices above $4 a gallon this summer, and one analyst recently predicted that gasoline could reach $7 in the next four years.

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/bu.../29oil.html?hp

**dg806** · 04-29-2008, 07:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Big Smoothy

It's about worldwide demand. Demand has not been dented in the least by higher prices and more production has not happened.

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/bu.../29oil.html?hp

It has been dented in the US. People can't afford to drive like they use to at $4 a gallon. Sure, people with money will continue to drive, but the average person can't pay that or more for gas. And they also can't heat their homes here with fuel oil at $4 a gallon. A large percentage of people in this country are being hurt badly and are doing everything they can to get by, and this is going to put a big hurt on the economy very soon. It takes times for things like this to show. It doesn't appear overnight.

Big Smoothy · 04-29-2008, 07:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dg806

It has been dented in the US. People can't afford to drive like they use to at $4 a gallon. Sure, people with money will continue to drive, but the average person can't pay that or more for gas. And they also can't heat their homes here with fuel oil at $4 a gallon. A large percentage of people in this country are being hurt badly and are doing everything they can to get by, and this is going to put a big hurt on the economy very soon. It takes times for things like this to show. It doesn't appear overnight.

I agree with you, dg806.

People have cut back on driving in the US. But it's like a drop in the bucket of world consumption.

I also agree on putting a big hurt on the economy. In addition to rising gasoline and diesel prices, we have inflation. (The US government pushes down the real rate of inflation because of SS and TIP payments.)

And Bernanke is likely to cut another .25 off the rates at the next meeting.

Add the rising costs of food, and other commodities, and you have less disposable income. This will slow the US economy, which is now 70% dependent on consumer spending.

Add the subprime mortgage, CDO, and financial industry mess,

04-26-2008, 09:20 AM	#66
brogers Registered User Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 1,253	Brazil found giant reserves, we're sitting on tons of oil in the rockies and ANWR, and of course tons of oil offshore. Supply CAN meet demand, but our politicians are tying our hands.
brogers Registered User Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 1,253

04-26-2008, 11:39 PM	#74
brogers Registered User Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 1,253	Glad you're an expert with your genius comments like "this doesn't matter" etc. Yes it does matter when Brazil finds a gigantic field of oil which may be the 3rd biggest EVER found, yes it does matter we have tons and tons and tons of oil sitting in the rockies (enough for 110 yrs at present consumption), yes ANWR does matter. These are not insignificant matters, with the price of oil where it is, and rising fast, more supply matters. We need to tap the resources we have now to alleviate the pressure on our economy, and develop the alternatives (NOT ETHANOL) on the side. There is a wealth of possibilities, I've even heard of using algae to grow fuel.
brogers Registered User Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 1,253

04-27-2008, 08:56 AM	#76
brogers Registered User Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 1,253	Cost of extraction/processing is becoming a lot less of an issue as the price is going $120/barrel+. That's the whole point.
brogers Registered User Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 1,253

04-28-2008, 07:05 AM	#79
danzik17 Gender: MALE Elite Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Connecticut Posts: 1,898 Blog Entries: 5	Not only that but we have a food crisis going on right now. I'm sure we can find a better use for all of that farmland than burning it in our cars.
	Ron Paul 2008 Journal: Boom goes the dynamite

04-17-2008, 03:55 PM	#64
squanto Fitness Celebrity Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Cheese Cottage Posts: 1,461	What? There's a third page?

04-28-2008, 02:10 AM	#78
maniclion Catalyst Elite Member Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Hawaii, selling munitions for the war on EcoTerror Posts: 17,660 Photos: 10	Ethanol is a horrible idea, they end up putting more energy into it than they get back from it..... "Adding up the energy costs of corn production and its conversion to ethanol, 131,000 BTUs are needed to make 1 gallon of ethanol. One gallon of ethanol has an energy value of only 77,000 BTU."