Do voters lie about racial concerns?

**min0 lee** · 10-07-2008, 04:38 PM

Do voters lie about racial concerns? - David Paul Kuhn - Politico.com

By: David Paul Kuhn
October 7, 2008 12:45 PM EST

Less than a week before the 1989 election for Virginia governor, two newspaper polls showed L. Douglas Wilder, a black Democrat, comfortably ahead of his GOP opponent by between 9 and 11 points. But when the ballots were counted, it was a nail-biter that Wilder won by fewer than 7,000 votes.

Political scientists dubbed it “the Wilder effect,” or referred to it by its earlier name, “the Bradley effect,” after Tom Bradley, the black mayor of Los Angeles who lost the 1982 California governor’s contest despite being up in the polls by as much as 22 points in the weeks before Election Day.

“The Wilder effect, the Bradley effect, is on the minds of everybody, without exception,” Neil Newhouse, who directs NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling, said, referring to what pollsters say is the phenomenon of some white people lying to pollsters about their support for black candidates.

The experiences of Bradley and Wilder loom ominously over Barack Obama’s presidential campaign, although opinion about the evidence of racially skewed polling in the election is mixed, political analysts said, and it was not seen in the Democratic primaries.

A GOP pollster, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, said that his surveys suggested polls were slightly overestimating support for Obama.

A Democratic pollster, who also would not be quoted by name, said that when he surveyed Pennsylvania union members — who as a group tend to be older, white and working class — he found a striking 20 percent difference between how whites responded when questioned by blacks and how they responded when questioned by other whites.

But many pollsters, citing the vastly improved track record among black politicians in elections over the past decade, said they believed that the problem of whites lying to pollsters about their support for black candidates was largely a thing of the past.

“The Bradley effect is an historical artifact,” said David Bositis, one of the top analysts of black demographics, polling and politics.

“The race question is a bit dated,” said Steve Elmendorf, deputy campaign manager for 2004 Democratic nominee John F. Kerry.

“Conventional wisdom is that race will cost any African-American candidate 1 to 5 points,” Elmendorf said. But Obama was drawing new voters to the rolls, particularly young people and African-Americans, and his Democratic primary victory showed a new political calculus at play. “I think this election is a little different,” he said.

Still, the memory is fresh, and political analysts said they remain concerned that the first presidential bid by a black major-party nominee could lead to old problems re-emerging.

“I have a concern that going into Election Day, in a dead heat, there could be some drop-off in support of Obama, of 1 or 2 points, because some voters are conflicted about race in this election,” said Joe Trippi, a Democratic strategist who was Bradley’s deputy campaign manager in 1982.

Pollsters said they remain especially sensitive to the Bradley effect, saying that some portion of whites claim to back Obama because they believe that’s what black interviewers want to hear.

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said her polling found that “whites interviewed by blacks are 3 to 5 percent more supportive of Obama than whites interviewed by whites.” She said the effect was “most concentrated” among older whites who did not attend college.

But officials at other polling companies said they had not detected major problems with whites lying to black questioners.

In a review of 26,000 interviews conducted in September, the Gallup Poll “found no difference in the presidential vote choice of either black or white respondents based on the race of the interviewer,” said Gallup chief Frank Newport.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal pollsters studied thousands of their interviews and came to the same conclusion.

“We took a hard look ourselves — it’s too important,” Newhouse said. “I was surprised to see that there was literally no difference. It was within a point or two,” and therefore not statistically significant.

Obama’s own internal polling similarly did not detect a significant Bradley effect, a campaign source said in an interview in August.

“Race of interviewer may make some difference, but I’m not a great believer that pollsters are being lied to because of the Bradley effect,” said Andy Kohut, a former director of Gallup who now heads the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. Sampling error is a bigger problem, he said. “My continuous concern are the people we are not getting, because I know the people who are more likely not to do surveys have more negative views about African-Americans.”

Bositis agreed, in part because “the novelty of black candidates has worn off.”

“This election is, for the most part, not about Barack Obama. This election is about throwing the in team out,” he said. “And Barack Obama is the captain of our team.”

Wilder, now the mayor of Richmond, said that pre-election polls in his 1989 gubernatorial race undersampled GOP voters in Virginia, although there was a Bradley effect, as well, he said.

“I didn’t believe double-digit figures,” Wilder recalled. “Our internal polling showed us plus or minus 2 — a dead heat.”

But, he added, “I think quite honestly there was more of the Bradley effect than bad polling, in terms of exit polls.” And Wilder said he remains concerned that “raw racism, ... coupled with fears about who is going to be a leader, coupled with who has the right experience,” could alter the November election.

“Racism has not gone away,” Wilder said, “nor will it ever.”

© 2008 Capitol News Company, LLC

**IronAddict** · 10-07-2008, 04:51 PM

Sad but true. Its a sad commentary this still goes on in 2008.

**DOMS** · 10-07-2008, 05:38 PM

I know quite a few Dems who simply won't vote for a black man. Especially one that shows the taint of racism.

**maniclion** · 10-07-2008, 06:09 PM

On NPR the other day they interviewed some 60+ year old man and he said something like "I don't think Palin is qualified to be second in line so I'm voting for Obama, I don't care that he's colored. I worked with coloreds before as long as they do their job then they are fine with me. As long as they don't bother me I'm fine with them people..." then he kept sounding more and more racist as the interview trailed off and the commentator took over again.....

I was laughing thinking "This poor guy is probably sick to his stomach trying to figure out what he hates worse a woman who could end up president or a black man as president...."

**ALBOB** · 10-07-2008, 06:42 PM

I'm ashamed of myself for feeling this way, but I'm counting on racism to win this election for McCain. He's certainly not done anything to win it on his own, so I have to count on the Bradley effect to help him win. So, my answer to the original question is yes, it exists.

P.S. In case anyone is wondering, I'm not for McCain simply because Obama is black. I just think Obama is a dangerous man and would be one of the worst presidents in history.

**TexanTA1996** · 10-07-2008, 06:43 PM

Originally Posted by DOMS

I know quite a few Dems who simply won't vote for a black man. Especially one that shows the taint of racism.

Talk about racism...Every black person I know doesn't know a godamn thing about Obama's politics, they only know he's black. There is a LARGE population of black citizens in this country who are simply voting for him because he's black.

**ALBOB** · 10-07-2008, 06:54 PM

Originally Posted by TexanTA1996

Talk about racism...Every black person I know doesn't know a godamn thing about Obama's politics, they only know he's black. There is a LARGE population of black citizens in this country who are simply voting for him because he's black.

I've heard estimates as high as 95% of blacks are voting for him simply because he's black. Sorry, blacks in America are the most racist people on the planet.........IMHO

**maniclion** · 10-07-2008, 06:55 PM

Obama is African-American and Caucasian. I have african-american heritage too though I have blond hair and blue eyes so you wouldn't tell from my appearance. But I guess it doesn't matter according to most people one drop rules.....

**DOMS** · 10-07-2008, 07:06 PM

Originally Posted by maniclion

Obama is African-American and Caucasian. I have african-american heritage too though I have blond hair and blue eyes so you wouldn't tell from my appearance. But I guess it doesn't matter according to most people one drop rules.....

Okay...yeah...right.

"He's only half black so he can't be racist against whites."

Bullshit.

Never mind that he has a black preacher that hates on white in his Sunday sermons.

Never mind that he hires from the Nation of Islam. An organization that openly talks about killing whites.

Never mind that he referred to his wife's mother, who didn't want her daughter to marry a black man, as a "typical white person."

Yeah, keep shoveling that shit.

**min0 lee** · 10-07-2008, 07:22 PM

Originally Posted by ALBOB

I've heard estimates as high as 95% of blacks are voting for him simply because he's black. Sorry, blacks in America are the most racist people on the planet.........IMHO

At work I kept stressing to everyone to vote for the issues and not the skin color or even the party, vote for who you think is the most qualified.

The majority of Blacks at work said they would vote for Obama no matter what.

Originally Posted by maniclion

Obama is African-American and Caucasian. I have african-american heritage too though I have blond hair and blue eyes so you wouldn't tell from my appearance. But I guess it doesn't matter according to most people one drop rules.....

I have a Puerto rican friend who to whites he's black and to black he's white, now that's what you call a racial bastard.

**maniclion** · 10-07-2008, 08:37 PM

Originally Posted by DOMS

Okay...yeah...right.

"He's only half black so he can't be racist against whites."

Bullshit.

Never mind that he has a black preacher that hates on white in his Sunday sermons.

Never mind that he hires from the Nation of Islam. An organization that openly talks about killing whites.

Never mind that he referred to his wife's mother, who didn't want her daughter to marry a black man, as a "typical white person."

Yeah, keep shoveling that shit.

Thats far off base from the point I was making... That even though he's a half&half decaf mocchiato almost everyone is saying he's black.....

**DOMS** · 10-07-2008, 09:04 PM

Originally Posted by maniclion

Thats far off base from the point I was making... That even though he's a half&half decaf mocchiato almost everyone is saying he's black.....

Not, it's not off base.

I'm sure the hue of skin makes some people proclaim his ethnicity. But to the educated, it's his actions and associates that show his true color.

**TexanTA1996** · 10-07-2008, 09:39 PM

Originally Posted by min0 lee

A

The majority of Blacks at work said they would vote for Obama no matter what.
.

What a shocker. Talk about ignorance.

**AKIRA** · 10-07-2008, 10:02 PM

Maniclion, you notice that type long entries almost all the time? How come?

Originally Posted by min0 lee

I have a Puerto rican friend who to whites he's black and to black he's white, now that's what you call a racial bastard.

Pretty nice observation.

**The Monkey Man** · 10-07-2008, 11:20 PM

You talk about racist stuff...
Obama is linked to some of the hardest groups around.
(as is his wife)

I REALLY don't think he would do anything special for blacks that
might promote racism as president...

In fact I don't think he would do anything for anyone much at all.

**lnvanry** · 10-07-2008, 11:51 PM

Originally Posted by The Monkey Man

You talk about racist stuff...
Obama is linked to some of the hardest groups around.
(as is his wife)

I REALLY don't think he would do anything special for blacks that
might promote racism as president...

In fact I don't think he would do anything for anyone much at all.

That's b/c he has little to do with typical black americans

**maniclion** · 10-08-2008, 06:06 AM

Originally Posted by AKIRA

Maniclion, you notice that type long entries almost all the time? How come?

I don't understand the question?
My entries are generally as concise as I can make them...

**Doublebase** · 10-08-2008, 06:12 AM

Did any of you hear Howard Stern show from last week? They sent one of their guys to Harlem to ask who the people are voting for. When they asked questions they would switch Obama's policies with Mccains. i.e What do you think about Obama picking Pallin as his running mate? The people would all say "I think that it was a good choice". He also asked them what they thought about Obama wanting to stay in Iraq for as long as it takes. I doubt any of the people he asked are even registered to vote.

**2truSoldier** · 10-08-2008, 07:06 AM

Originally Posted by ALBOB

I'm ashamed of myself for feeling this way, but I'm counting on racism to win this election for McCain. He's certainly not done anything to win it on his own, so I have to count on the Bradley effect to help him win. So, my answer to the original question is yes, it exists.

P.S. In case anyone is wondering, I'm not for McCain simply because Obama is black. I just think Obama is a dangerous man and would be one of the worst presidents in history.

Originally Posted by ALBOB

I've heard estimates as high as 95% of blacks are voting for him simply because he's black. Sorry, blacks in America are the most racist people on the planet.........IMHO

This absolutely makes no sense.

**mcguin** · 10-08-2008, 07:13 AM

It's not the fact that hes black that makes me want to strangulate him, its the fact that for quite some years he went to one of those crazy churches filled with domestic terrorists.

**IronAddict** · 10-08-2008, 09:32 AM

Originally Posted by maniclion

On NPR the other day they interviewed some 60+ year old man and he said something like "I don't think Palin is qualified to be second in line so I'm voting for Obama, I don't care that he's colored. I worked with coloreds before as long as they do their job then they are fine with me. As long as they don't bother me I'm fine with them people..." then he kept sounding more and more racist as the interview trailed off and the commentator took over again.....

I was laughing thinking "This poor guy is probably sick to his stomach trying to figure out what he hates worse a woman who could end up president or a black man as president...."

Yeah bro., some people just don't know when to shut up! I heard that also, and it's just so sad.

**min0 lee** · 10-08-2008, 02:43 PM

Originally Posted by TexanTA1996

What a shocker. Talk about ignorance.

It can go the other way, the Black guy be great but Whites would not vote for him.

Union voting is a lot like that.

**min0 lee** · 10-08-2008, 02:51 PM

Sorry, blacks in America are the most racist people on the planet

Originally Posted by 2truSoldier

This absolutely makes no sense.

Everyone has their bias, the Whites vs. Blacks, North vs. South, Black Americans Vs. Caribean Blacks, Irish Vs. English, East coast vs. West coast.

I mess around but I really am the Anti-DOMS (No offense big guy) I try to get along with any race. Racism is a turnoff to me.
I can understand it but sometimes I see unfair stuff going on.

**DOMS** · 10-08-2008, 05:55 PM

Originally Posted by min0 lee

Everyone has their bias, the Whites vs. Blacks, North vs. South, Black Americans Vs. Caribean Blacks, Irish Vs. English, East coast vs. West coast.

I mess around but I really am the Anti-DOMS (No offense big guy) I try to get along with any race. Racism is a turnoff to me.
I can understand it but sometimes I see unfair stuff going on.

Don't worry, I still love you.

The two biggest racial rivalries that I know of:

Black Americans vs. Black Africans

Latin Americans vs. Spannish

**ALBOB** · 10-08-2008, 07:58 PM

Originally Posted by 2truSoldier

This absolutely makes no sense.

It does if you take each statement in context.

In the first statement I was referring to the Bradley effect which, when boiled down to it's most basic elements, is racism. I'm counting on the Bradley effect to win the election for McCain.

In the second statement I cited estimates of up to 95% of blacks who say they will vote for Obama for no other reason than because he's black. My opinion is American blacks are the most racist group on the planet.

The two are completely separate issues. Any more questions from the audience?

**maniclion** · 10-08-2008, 08:16 PM

Originally Posted by DOMS

Don't worry, I still love you.

The two biggest racial rivalries that I know of:

Black Americans vs. Black Africans

Latin Americans vs. Spannish

Anglo-Saxon Americans vs the british and their bad teeth, tea tottling and wig wearing judges and their goofy accents....

**bio-chem** · 10-09-2008, 11:19 AM

Commentary: Voting against Obama doesn't make you a racist - CNN.com

**2truSoldier** · 10-09-2008, 11:28 AM

Originally Posted by ALBOB

It does if you take each statement in context.

In the first statement I was referring to the Bradley effect which, when boiled down to it's most basic elements, is racism. I'm counting on the Bradley effect to win the election for McCain.

In the second statement I cited estimates of up to 95% of blacks who say they will vote for Obama for no other reason than because he's black. My opinion is American blacks are the most racist group on the planet.

The two are completely separate issues. Any more questions from the audience?

I will comment on your second statement 95% of blacks vote democrat period. Do you honestly believe that if McCain were black that black voters would vote for him I don't think so.

**2truSoldier** · 10-09-2008, 11:38 AM

Originally Posted by ALBOB

It does if you take each statement in context.

In the first statement I was referring to the Bradley effect which, when boiled down to it's most basic elements, is racism. I'm counting on the Bradley effect to win the election for McCain.

In the second statement I cited estimates of up to 95% of blacks who say they will vote for Obama for no other reason than because he's black. My opinion is American blacks are the most racist group on the planet.

The two are completely separate issues. Any more questions from the audience?

Originally Posted by min0 lee

Everyone has their bias, the Whites vs. Blacks, North vs. South, Black Americans Vs. Caribean Blacks, Irish Vs. English, East coast vs. West coast.

I mess around but I really am the Anti-DOMS (No offense big guy) I try to get along with any race. Racism is a turnoff to me.
I can understand it but sometimes I see unfair stuff going on.

I think you are a pretty cool person. Hell I even respect DOMS for his beliefs, don't agree with them, but I respect them. Its the assholes that hide behind there beliefs that pisses me off.

**bio-chem** · 10-09-2008, 12:11 PM

Originally Posted by 2truSoldier

I will comment on your second statement 95% of blacks vote democrat period. Do you honestly believe that if McCain were black that black voters would vote for him I don't think so.

i do. had colin powel run for president 8 years ago as a republican i think 90 percent of blacks would have voted for him regardless of his politics. the best example of this is charles barkley. up until now he has been an outspoken republican even contemplating getting into politics of his home state as a republican. the guy immediately did a 180 and now is doing everything but sexual favors in support of obama.

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