Tricky Machida stands a chance
By Brett Okamoto
ESPN.com
Right now, I give only three light heavyweights any real shot at beating Jon Jones. Of course, on any given night, any man weighing 205 pounds could conceivably land that "one punch." But as far as guys who could win, maybe, 4-6 out of 10 times -- there are three.
Those guys are Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans and Phil Davis (one year from now); in that order. Machida, because he's difficult to hit and can finish. Evans, because of athleticism and his familiarity with Jones as a former teammate. And Davis, after another year of development, because of his physical build and the possibility that he forces Jones to fight off his back.
Of the three, I give Machida the best shot. In a way, Jones reminds me of Machida in that no one has really figured out how to fight him. It's not that they have similar fighting styles; it's more that they are confusing to be in the cage with. For a long while, no one could solve the elusiveness of Machida's stance and movement. Similarly, no one can solve how to get inside Jones' 84-inch reach.
Maybe I'm crazy and saw something that wasn't there Saturday, but at UFC 135 I felt Quinton Jackson had moments to catch Jones. Jackson, more so than any other Jones opponent, was at times successful in slipping punches and setting up countering opportunities. The only problem was he wasn't quick enough to get inside. Jones would take a single step back, raise his arm in defense and already be out of range.
Consider Machida in those positions. He should have even more success in making Jones miss, given his reputation as perhaps the best defensive fighter in the UFC. When opportunities to counter come, I think Machida is a bit quicker than Jackson, a bit straighter with his punches and a bit more accurate. I can see him making Jones pay for mistakes he got away with against Jackson.
I can picture a fight between Jones and Evans; I can see Evans bobbing in and out and looking for a takedown. But for the most part, I see that fight ending with Jones defending a shot and cracking Evans on that somewhat questionable chin. I can also picture the fight with Davis. Maybe Davis is strong enough and long enough to tie up Jones and take him down. But more likely, Jones uses his footwork to keep Davis at bay and picks him apart from range.
I can't 100 percent picture how a fight against Machida would go. Even if the entire arena starts to boo, Machida will circle and make Jones come to him. If he can defend the takedown, make Jones miss with his strikes and counter him aggressively with punches in volume (instead of looking for just one, as Jackson did), he could certainly beat him.
Now let's not be mistaken here. I'd still pick Jones to win every single one of these matchups. But then again, I bought into the "Machida era" after he won the title at UFC 98 -- an era that lasted all of two fights. Jones is capable of losing, and I think Machida is equipped with the best tools to beat him.
From ESPN



Reply With Quote

