Economic Downturn and Bush Policies Continue to Drive Large Projected Deficits

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    Economic Downturn and Bush Policies Continue to Drive Large Projected Deficits






    Some lawmakers, pundits, and others continue to say that President George W. Bush’s policies did not drive the projected federal deficits of the coming decade — that, instead, it was the policies of President Obama and Congress in 2009 and 2010. But, the fact remains: the economic downturn, President Bush’s tax cuts and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq explain virtually the entire deficit over the next ten years (see Figure 1).

    The deficit for fiscal year 2009 — which began more than three months before President Obama’s inauguration — was $1.4 trillion and, at 10 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the largest deficit relative to the economy since the end of World War II. At $1.3 trillion and nearly 9 percent of GDP, the deficit in 2010 was only slightly lower. If current policies remain in place, deficits will likely resemble those figures in 2011 and hover near $1 trillion a year for the next decade.

    The events and policies that pushed deficits to these high levels in the near term were, for the most part, not of President Obama’s making. If not for the Bush tax cuts, the deficit-financed wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the effects of the worst recession since the Great Depression (including the cost of policymakers’ actions to combat it), we would not be facing these huge deficits in the near term. By themselves, in fact, the Bush tax cuts and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will account for almost half of the $20 trillion in debt that, under current policies, the nation will owe by 2019. The stimulus law and financial rescues will account for less than 10 percent of the debt at that time.

    President Obama, however, still has a responsibility to propose, and put the weight of his office behind, policies that will address our key long-term fiscal challenge — preventing the relentless rise of debt as a share of GDP that will occur under current policies. The President and Congress could make major progress toward stabilizing the debt for the coming decade by letting all of the Bush tax cuts expire on schedule at the end of 2012. That would just be a first (although a substantial) step. To keep the debt stable over the longer run, when the fiscal impacts of an aging population and rising health care costs will continue to mount, policymakers will need to take large additional steps on both the expenditure and revenue sides of the budget.

    Having said that, policymakers should not mistake the causes of the swollen deficits that we face in the decade ahead — nor make policy based on mistaken impressions.

    Economic Downturn and Bush Policies Continue to Drive Large Projected Deficits
    Economic Downturn and Bush Policies Continue to Drive Large Projected Deficits — Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
    William F. Buckley describes a conservative as, "someone who stands athwart history, yelling Stop." - and then proceeds to drag civilization back to times best left in history's dungheap.

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    No question the three wars and tax cuts account for most of the deficit, but it was the Fed that ultimately caused the crash IMO. Unfortunately, the Obama admin has done effectively nothing to turn any of it around. There needs to be some growth in the economy before they can have a shred of hope in taxing us out of this mess. Simply allowing the tax cuts to expire won't solve anything without aggressive policies aimed at stimulating growth in the private sector.

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    the Feds monetary policies are definitely a major cause.

    interest rates are so low we (fed gov) didn't need to stop spending at this time. the personal savings rate has been slowly increasing the past couple of years when you combine that with decreased spending from the gov GDP growth is going to slow to a crawl with personal consumption fueling 70% of our economy.

    the last report the BLS put out shows output in productivity constantly increasing even with work force reductions and the use of part-time workers. this is due to technology, etc. the US produces many products but we don't make a lot of things. along with manufacturing levels at all time lows combined with outsourcing, etc. we now have a huge supply of idle labour and many underemployed.

    the national savings rate has been so low for so many decades there are no monies to fund capital projects which could put a decent amount of people to work.
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    Bush has ruined the economy of the USA.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 99raptor View Post
    Bush has ruined the economy of the USA.

    And you would kiss Barrys ass if he asked you to Liberal.You weak minded Liberals have no clue what reality really is in life.Its a shame that people like you want to live off the Gov

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    Quote Originally Posted by DEATH MATCH View Post
    And you would kiss Barrys ass if he asked you to Liberal.You weak minded Liberals have no clue what reality really is in life.Its a shame that people like you want to live off the Gov
    this is reality....

    Critics Still Wrong on What’s Driving Deficits in Coming Years
    Critics Still Wrong on What
    William F. Buckley describes a conservative as, "someone who stands athwart history, yelling Stop." - and then proceeds to drag civilization back to times best left in history's dungheap.

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    Been a while since I have seen some propaganda from LAM, same shitty reasons and pro-liberal rhetoric, different day. I am not even going to argue, it's like trying to tell Hitler to stop killing people, not ever going to happen. And this is why we are so fucked, it's impossible to reason with idealists that refuse to see the light.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GearsMcGilf View Post
    No question the three wars and tax cuts account for most of the deficit, but it was the Fed that ultimately caused the crash IMO. Unfortunately, the Obama admin has done effectively nothing to turn any of it around. There needs to be some growth in the economy before they can have a shred of hope in taxing us out of this mess. Simply allowing the tax cuts to expire won't solve anything without aggressive policies aimed at stimulating growth in the private sector.
    Totally agree well said

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    Quote Originally Posted by oufinny View Post
    And this is why we are so fucked, it's impossible to reason with idealists that refuse to see the light.
    So it's not because it's impossible to reason with people who view data as propaganda and Fox News as fair and balanced?
    If sense were common, everyone would have it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 99raptor View Post
    Bush has ruined the economy of the USA.
    way to go about explaining your opinion

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    Quote Originally Posted by oufinny View Post
    Been a while since I have seen some propaganda from LAM, same shitty reasons and pro-liberal rhetoric, different day. I am not even going to argue, it's like trying to tell Hitler to stop killing people, not ever going to happen. And this is why we are so fucked, it's impossible to reason with idealists that refuse to see the light.
    you must be talking about those on the right the rigid ideals that never waiver and don't change as the economy, globalization and world changes around them....

    as our current deficit shows from the past tax cuts are not deficit neutral so how are they magically going to NOT increase the deficit in the future? this is not what I say but what all the non-partisan economists say from the EPI, Brookings Institute and the CBPP..

    Ryan gets his data from the conservative Heritiage Foundation which is the economic equivalent to Fox news
    William F. Buckley describes a conservative as, "someone who stands athwart history, yelling Stop." - and then proceeds to drag civilization back to times best left in history's dungheap.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oufinny View Post
    And this is why we are so fucked, it's impossible to reason with idealists that refuse to see the light.
    You do realize that an idealist is someone striving for the ideal or best situation don't you? What is seeing the light, realizing it's going to be difficult so just saying fuck it and screwing everyone below you on the socioeconomic ladder will suffice?
    If sense were common, everyone would have it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dale Mabry View Post
    You do realize that an idealist is someone striving for the ideal or best situation don't you? What is seeing the light, realizing it's going to be difficult so just saying fuck it and screwing everyone below you on the socioeconomic ladder will suffice?
    you can't argue with retards that believe in magical economic polices
    William F. Buckley describes a conservative as, "someone who stands athwart history, yelling Stop." - and then proceeds to drag civilization back to times best left in history's dungheap.

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    Because you lazy liberals can't make it in this world you want to suck the money out of my veins.You deserve nothing, you get what you make of yourself in this country i work hard and take care of my family and issues with no problems i'm not a lazy ass i live within my means so should you .If you can only afford to rent a small 2 bedroom house than thats all you get! If you don't like it move to Europe you dumb ass after living there you'll wish you were a republican in the great U.S.A .We won't let you spoiled asses ruin this country anymore wait until the elections !

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigeddie View Post
    Because you lazy liberals can't make it in this world you want to suck the money out of my veins.You deserve nothing, you get what you make of yourself in this country i work hard and take care of my family and issues with no problems i'm not a lazy ass i live within my means so should you .If you can only afford to rent a small 2 bedroom house than thats all you get! If you don't like it move to Europe you dumb ass after living there you'll wish you were a republican in the great U.S.A .We won't let you spoiled asses ruin this country anymore wait until the elections !
    programs for LMI Americans account for 45% of the US population..you sir are an idiot
    William F. Buckley describes a conservative as, "someone who stands athwart history, yelling Stop." - and then proceeds to drag civilization back to times best left in history's dungheap.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigeddie View Post
    Because you lazy liberals can't make it in this world you want to suck the money out of my veins.You deserve nothing, you get what you make of yourself in this country i work hard and take care of my family and issues with no problems i'm not a lazy ass i live within my means so should you .If you can only afford to rent a small 2 bedroom house than thats all you get! If you don't like it move to Europe you dumb ass after living there you'll wish you were a republican in the great U.S.A .We won't let you spoiled asses ruin this country anymore wait until the elections !
    Relax, grab a cold pbr, and go bang your sister.
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    If our dear elected leaders could get past ideology and focus on solving the actual problems that are in front of us, the USA could remain the world's #1 superpower for at least another century.

    Every other country in the world explores their own energy reserves. All the while we support them and promise to be their "best customer. (eg. Brazil). At the same time, we have enough oil to last centuries right off of our shores, yet we won't tap into it because of environmental special interest groups. In the meantime, we talk about "green renewable energy", which does not actually exist at this point, and pretend to believe in Obama's plan, which we have heard is to make "energy prices necessarily skyrocket. (not paraphrasing)" As usual, he gets a pass on this, along with so much else.
    It felt good to pay $80 to fill up my Explorer today, because I know that as soon as it reaches $100, I'll be able to fill my tank with green juice and not only will it be cheaper and enviro-friendly, but the planet won't implode in the next 5 years, as Al predicted.

    You libs are an amazing breed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GearsMcGilf View Post
    If our dear elected leaders could get past ideology and focus on solving the actual problems that are in front of us, the USA could remain the world's #1 superpower for at least another century.

    Every other country in the world explores their own energy reserves. All the while we support them and promise to be their "best customer. (eg. Brazil). At the same time, we have enough oil to last centuries right off of our shores, yet we won't tap into it because of environmental special interest groups. In the meantime, we talk about "green renewable energy", which does not actually exist at this point, and pretend to believe in Obama's plan, which we have heard is to make "energy prices necessarily skyrocket. (not paraphrasing)" As usual, he gets a pass on this, along with so much else.
    It felt good to pay $80 to fill up my Explorer today, because I know that as soon as it reaches $100, I'll be able to fill my tank with green juice and not only will it be cheaper and enviro-friendly, but the planet won't implode in the next 5 years, as Al predicted.

    You libs are an amazing breed.
    do some research on the environmental effects of shale processing then tell me how you fell about it, all the easy oil in the US is long gone...creating problems to solve one, isn't a solution. eventually tomorrow becomes today.

    the country right now is experiencing the "after effects" or the tomorrow of wage suppression from the fall of labor unions in the 80's along with the continued loss of manufacturing. and now the credit has been cut off to the middle class, no surprise with stagnant wages.

    regardless that is only one issue. as wages have remained stagnant and decreased in some sectors the taxes have become less progressive along with the fact that the CPI is ineffective for determining wages as it tries to do so linearly.

    there is a fundamental fight between labor and capital in "capitalism" the loss of a progressive tax system in the US has added to this natural occurring event.

    the US produces a lot of good but we don't manufacture much. the products that we do produce along with technology has caused less of a demand on labor so we now have a huge surplus of labor in this country and no place to send them to work. we need to bring back manufacturing but company's don't just want to make a little profit, it's either balls to the wall or none in the country because we have created a society of greed. capital projects would put many to work but because of 30 years of near zero national savings there are no monies for that.

    the corporate tax rate is at an all time low and unemployment is at a high, so that obvious doesn't spur job creation as we have 30 years of data showing it doesn't along with a surplus of labor.

    Given all of that and a GOP House that hasn't done squat to create jobs please do tell how does Obama reverse 30 years of neo-liberal economic policy's?

    reduced taxs, subsidies to special interest groups and billion dollars company's total up to 1T a year...

    your the one with the MBA, any realistic solutions besides blaming Obama for inheriting the worst economy since the great depression...
    Last edited by LAM; 05-15-2011 at 10:12 PM.
    William F. Buckley describes a conservative as, "someone who stands athwart history, yelling Stop." - and then proceeds to drag civilization back to times best left in history's dungheap.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LAM View Post
    you can't argue with retards that believe in magical economic polices
    Retards, wow you really are showing your stripes buddy. Now go give half your paycheck to the government so it can be redistributed to people who don't work or intend on it and tell me about that warm fuzzy if gives you while your bank account dwindles. I don't like the left agenda, I don't particularly like the right agenda either, if you feel that makes me and idealist or rigid in my beliefs so be it. I don't answer to you, you are just an avatar and some words. The ideas you so strongly represent are questionable at best and your constant criticism continues to produce just that, criticism, yet no solutions.
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    Quote Originally Posted by LAM View Post
    do some research on the environmental effects of shale processing then tell me how you fell about it, all the easy oil in the US is long gone...creating problems to solve one, isn't a solution. eventually tomorrow becomes today.

    the country right now is experiencing the "after effects" or the tomorrow of wage suppression from the fall of labor unions in the 80's along with the continued loss of manufacturing. and now the credit has been cut off to the middle class, no surprise with stagnant wages.

    regardless that is only one issue. as wages have remained stagnant and decreased in some sectors the taxes have become less progressive along with the fact that the CPI is ineffective for determining wages as it tries to do so linearly.

    there is a fundamental fight between labor and capital in "capitalism" the loss of a progressive tax system in the US has added to this natural occurring event.

    the US produces a lot of good but we don't manufacture much. the products that we do produce along with technology has caused less of a demand on labor so we now have a huge surplus of labor in this country and no place to send them to work. we need to bring back manufacturing but company's don't just want to make a little profit, it's either balls to the wall or none in the country because we have created a society of greed. capital projects would put many to work but because of 30 years of near zero national savings there are no monies for that.

    the corporate tax rate is at an all time low and unemployment is at a high, so that obvious doesn't spur job creation as we have 30 years of data showing it doesn't along with a surplus of labor.

    Given all of that and a GOP House that hasn't done squat to create jobs please do tell how does Obama reverse 30 years of neo-liberal economic policy's?

    reduced taxs, subsidies to special interest groups and billion dollars company's total up to 1T a year...

    your the one with the MBA, any realistic solutions besides blaming Obama for inheriting the worst economy since the great depression...
    You would fail all the economics classes I took when I got my BBA in Economics, even attempting to argue with you will prove fruitless. You can throw a million statistics out, make some grandiose assumptions yet again, I see NO SOLUTIONS PRESENTED. Present a fucking plan of action, do what no one has done yet in Washington, then sir you will be a voice of reason instead of one of discontent.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dale Mabry View Post
    Relax, grab a cold pbr, and go bang your sister.
    PBR is good, I like people from the country who call liberals lazy and if your sister is hot (assuming you have one), I would bang the shit out of her.
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    Quote Originally Posted by oufinny View Post
    Retards, wow you really are showing your stripes buddy. Now go give half your paycheck to the government so it can be redistributed to people who don't work or intend on it and tell me about that warm fuzzy if gives you while your bank account dwindles. I don't like the left agenda, I don't particularly like the right agenda either, if you feel that makes me and idealist or rigid in my beliefs so be it. I don't answer to you, you are just an avatar and some words. The ideas you so strongly represent are questionable at best and your constant criticism continues to produce just that, criticism, yet no solutions.
    1st you can go choke on a big fat cock....I pay my contractors under the table and assume all of the tax liability. I sent the IRS a check for $167K this year so as a small business owner I do everything I can at greatly reduced income for myself. I pay as much as I can not as little like most company's in the US.

    but seriously do you guy read anything or get all your news from the tv? the US has been bleeding jobs for decades, we never recovered from the recession of 2001. why do you think we have a 10% unemployment rate 3 years after the end of the recession? the jobs lost to outsourcing are not counted by the BLS so the real unemployment rate is closer to 15%. technology along with outsourcing has created a serious excess of labor in this country.

    there are no jobs....the college loan default rate is at it's highest ever. 10% of college grads are now unemployed. 5% was the highest rate of this before.

    GWB left Obama with the worst economy and economic expansion since WWII. so please do tell how does the President reverse the effects of globalization and outsourcing that has been going on for 3 decades? Greed has ruined this country. Profits and short-term economic growth (increased dividends to shareholders) have taken priority over planning for the countries future.

    You would learn a lot if you even read a fraction of the information that I post.

    Jobs data send mixed messages

    Reasons for Skepticism about Structural Unemployment
    http://epi.3cdn.net/c1218e8213c58051e4_tlm6b5tf9.pdf
    Last edited by LAM; 05-16-2011 at 08:50 AM.
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    having to "explain" these things is very hard for me. it is relatively easy for me to piece these things together but not so easy putting it in writing, kind of like having to show your math in HS algebra.

    capitalism is fundamentally flawed in nature, once you add in the human nature and greed and globalization you end up with the economy we have today in the US.

    you can not have a "successful" consumption based economy, when there has been decades of wage suppression, a loss of tax progressive and unequal income distribution.

    factor in the loss of manufacturing jobs to China over the decades and the outsourcing of many high tech jobs to other countries like India were the standards of education are substantially higher than the US and the cost of employment is much lower. When I worked at Agilent in silicon valley I had buddies at sister company HP that went to India to train there replacements. they have Dr's working in tech support because they get paid more due to the overcrowding in that field there.

    the production jobs that we do have in the US are requiring less and less man power. you can tell this by looking at the data from the BEA and BLS. productivity and worker output is constantly increasing while the number of hours worked and number of workers has decreased. capital expenditures are in the link below so we can rule that out.

    U.S. CAPITAL SPENDING PATTERNS— 1999-2008
    http://www.census.gov/econ/aces/repo...report2010.pdf

    then add in a increasing population and an increased life span due to advances in medicine.

    * people also have to realize that the US is the 1st country to ever try having a consumption based economy and as it turns out it was a very bad idea...
    William F. Buckley describes a conservative as, "someone who stands athwart history, yelling Stop." - and then proceeds to drag civilization back to times best left in history's dungheap.

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    We can agree to one thing: Imagine a nice big black cauldron that is the USA. What fills the pot is our economy and stability. The politicians past and present have been mostly filling the cauldron with shit and piss and what you see present time is what they have been brewing. President Bush has not helped with the first volley of bailouts (or other constituents) or wars where we were supposedly supposed to get an oil honeypot? - and certainly President Obama has not with his expenditures. The problem is that there are so many dumpings of manure into the pot, there are not too many root causes to finger and resolve. There are seemingly thousands of issues that lead up to the mess we're in. People on tv, radio and on these forums pick the kernels of corn out of the shit to prove some point nobody fucking cares about anyways - without of course looking at all the other myriad of issues that point directly to their parties crap they dumped in the pot.

    One side wants to ass-blast the rich and keep shoveling shit and gub'ment assists to the poor (and keep select fat cats happy), the other side wants to keep fat cats happy and distribute cuts down the line - rich to middle class (poor don't pay shit for taxes and get mucho bennies, so it doesn't matter).

    It's all a load of shit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oufinny View Post
    Retards, wow you really are showing your stripes buddy. Now go give half your paycheck to the government so it can be redistributed to people who don't work or intend on it and tell me about that warm fuzzy if gives you while your bank account dwindles. I don't like the left agenda, I don't particularly like the right agenda either, if you feel that makes me and idealist or rigid in my beliefs so be it. I don't answer to you, you are just an avatar and some words. The ideas you so strongly represent are questionable at best and your constant criticism continues to produce just that, criticism, yet no solutions.
    All you ever have to say is Left this or Right that.
    You never have anything of value to say, just retarded judgements.
    For this I am banning you....(ignore list)

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    Quote Originally Posted by myCATpowerlifts View Post
    All you ever have to say is Left this or Right that.
    You never have anything of value to say, just retarded judgements.
    For this I am banning you....(ignore list)
    ... So, how's the weather doing? Kinda cool over here today (55.44F to be exact). Didn't get to mow over the weekend because it rained and we had a garage sale anyways that my wife wanted to participate in. Made over $200 though, so it's all good. Gotta mow after work, but will have to godamn rake it up because it's too long now from the rains. Hate it when that happens.

  27. #27
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    tax receipts always decrease during and after recessions, this is nothing new but US economic history. increased gov spending kept the country out of a double-dip recession. of course Obama spent more, as each recession hits the economy for the middle class gets worst as the population grows and there are less jobs to return to.

    many world economists said the fed gov should have continued to spend since interest rates are so low while the private sectors paid down consumer debt. personal consumption accounts for 70% of our GDP. if you look at the personal savings rate on the graph below it shows a marked decline from the 80's until now but the personal consumption rate (PCE) continued to increase as credit was made readily available.

    U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis

    there's simply is no quick fix to the economy and putting all the unemployed people back to work, forget about the underemployed for now. this thing did not happen over-night and it will take many, many years to fix if ever.

    the US and UK are now feeling the full effects of globalization, prosperity for some and austerity for the rest...

    people had very unrealistic expectations of Obama but that is the nature of our society here, everybody wants everything fast and they want it now.

    the economic problems caused by the long marriage of big corp and the gov traded the financial future of the middle class for short-term economic growth. we now have a huge surplus of labor on one end and a huge surplus of capital on the other, both sitting idle..what a brilliant long term plan
    William F. Buckley describes a conservative as, "someone who stands athwart history, yelling Stop." - and then proceeds to drag civilization back to times best left in history's dungheap.

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by LAM View Post
    tax receipts always decrease during and after recessions, this is nothing new but US economic history. increased gov spending kept the country out of a double-dip recession. of course Obama spent more, as each recession hits the economy for the middle class gets worst as the population grows and there are less jobs to return to.

    many world economists said the fed gov should have continued to spend since interest rates are so low while the private sectors paid down consumer debt. personal consumption accounts for 70% of our GDP. if you look at the personal savings rate on the graph below it shows a marked decline from the 80's until now but the personal consumption rate (PCE) continued to increase as credit was made readily available.

    U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis

    there's simply is no quick fix to the economy and putting all the unemployed people back to work, forget about the underemployed for now. this thing did not happen over-night and it will take many, many years to fix if ever.

    the US and UK are now feeling the full effects of globalization, prosperity for some and austerity for the rest...
    Well put.

    In short, we put off moderate pain for horrible long-term pain. Very stupid. And by "we", I mean the government and corporations.

    Quote Originally Posted by LAM View Post
    people had very unrealistic expectations of Obama but that is the nature of our society here, everybody wants everything fast and they want it now.
    I really, really wanted to believe in him.

    Quote Originally Posted by LAM View Post
    the economic problems caused by the long marriage of big corp and the gov traded the financial future of the middle class for short-term economic growth. we now have a huge surplus of labor on one end and a huge surplus of capital on the other, both sitting idle..what a brilliant long term plan
    I made my comment above before reading this last part.


    Oh, wait...


  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by phosphor View Post
    ... So, how's the weather doing? Kinda cool over here today (55.44F to be exact). Didn't get to mow over the weekend because it rained and we had a garage sale anyways that my wife wanted to participate in. Made over $200 though, so it's all good. Gotta mow after work, but will have to godamn rake it up because it's too long now from the rains. Hate it when that happens.
    It's pretty damn hot down in here in south Texas.
    Not too hot yet, and luckily (or not) I will be getting a new vehicle soon.
    old one was totalled (not from a wreck, oil leaked out while driving chewed up engine).
    So at least I'll have A/C.

    I haven't had A/C for TWO FUCKING years man.
    And it the first summer, it was 100+ degrees for 40 straight days...
    That was hell.

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    Quote Originally Posted by myCATpowerlifts View Post
    All you ever have to say is Left this or Right that.
    You never have anything of value to say, just retarded judgements.
    For this I am banning you....(ignore list)
    Glad to help.
    AY Fan Club President.

    "Damn, sometimes I think you guys make being stupid seem like a skill set." - Troubador

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