Ohio's economic fears trump race card in Presidential race

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    Ohio's economic fears trump race card in Presidential race

    Ohio's economic fears trump race card in Presidential race

    BY DAVID SALTONSTALL
    DAILY NEWS SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

    Tuesday, October 14th 2008, 1:56 AM

    DAYTON, Ohio - Suddenly, the presidential contest here is less about black and white and more about green, as in the frightening evaporation of trillions of Americans' dollars.

    The nation's economic tsunami is muddying old assumptions about how race will sway voters in this mother of all electoral battlegrounds and other hard-hit swing states.

    "It's not unusual for people here to express racist beliefs openly," said Bill Clemmens, 60, a white, small businessman who supports Democrat Barack Obama. "But I also believe many of those who 10 years ago might have been described as abject bigots will vote for Obama."


    "The economy just trumps racism at this point," said Clemmens, adding that many Republicans he knows in his Dayton neighborhood simply feel "suckered" by the last eight years.

    In short, said Clemmens and other Ohioans, many white voters who wouldn't have dreamed of supporting Obama even a year ago are looking at their ravaged 401(k) and IRA accounts and taking a second look at the Democrat's pitch to the working class.

    It's a dangerous trend for Republican John McCain, for whom winning Ohio looks do or die, given how economic storm clouds have already altered the electoral map, many experts believe.



    A Marist poll Monday showed Obama up by 4 points in Ohio, which President Bush won by 118,000 votes in 2004.

    Earlier this month, voters in the Buckeye State began casting ballots under an early voting law. It is a window Democrats seem to be exploiting better than Republicans.

    Example: of 9,280 voters who asked for early ballots in Franklin County - a swing region around Columbus - only 3% were Republican, officials said.


    Republicans insist they can still win here.

    "It is no coincidence that John McCain has visited the state over 30 times since becoming the presumptive nominee," said McCain spokesman Paul Lindsay."

    But suggestions of a bump among white voters for the Democrat can be seen in the proliferating Obama lawn signs in traditionally Republican neighborhoods around Dayton, and in the mostly white faces at Obama's rallies in Ohio cities with significant black populations.

    "Dayton has traditionally been a very divided city racially," said Mark Begley, 50, as he surveyed a diverse throng of 8,500 at Dayton's Dragon Stadium last week. "But if you look around, this crowd cuts across all lines."

    dsaltonstall@nydailynews.com

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    Just another point to support the fact that the average joe has zero understanding of economics in general. If the average joe had a 4 year business degree, this article would state the exact opposite. Unfortunately, you have a bunch of morons out there with little or no understanding of the economy.

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    It's a shame this country is full of your average Joes.....at least your safe high up there in your pedestal.

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    Just shows you how much distrust people have for this administration...even the KKK supports Obama.

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    Dont worry, McCain has them Right where he wants them... lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by pyromaniac327 View Post
    Dont worry, McCain has them Right where he wants them... lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by min0 lee View Post
    Just shows you how much distrust people have for this administration...even the KKK supports Obama.
    That's because people are ignorant. This economic meltdown was largely a part of several economic policies put into place by democrats, but I'm sure you already knew that. Do you read anything except the headlines that the media uses to fool people like you?

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    Quote Originally Posted by TexanTA1996 View Post
    That's because people are ignorant. This economic meltdown was largely a part of several economic policies put into place by democrats, but I'm sure you already knew that.
    Oversimplified.

    The US government is complicated. Both parties are responsible, and honestly, the GOP is a very large part of this de-regulation.

    US culture is also a BIG factor: it's the way Americans have been living for 30 years. borrow and spend, and don't save.

    American saved 1% of their disposable income last year. In some recent years, that number was -.02.

    The days of easy and cheap credit are likely over.
    It's an accurate statement that our current spending will not be increasing the debt We've stopped spending money that we don't have.

    -- Jack Lew, then director of the Office of Management and Budget, in Feb. 16, 2011 testimony before the Senate Budget Committee.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TexanTA1996 View Post
    That's because people are ignorant. This economic meltdown was largely a part of several economic policies put into place by democrats, but I'm sure you already knew that. Do you read anything except the headlines that the media uses to fool people like you?
    Yes, I read the whole article. Like Smoothy said both parties are responsible but some sexually repressed Clinton-blaming totalitarians just can't come to terms with that. These incompetent male-page-seducing blowhards are just too blind to see how the current administration destroyed this country, instead of taking care of us they start a war with the wrong country.
    Are you one of those bloodthirsty cousin-marrying hypocriticle confused FOX News-humping McCarthistic inbred bathroom-sex-seeking revisionists wide-stanced deficit-expanding moron?

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    Just gibberish but I just had to use The Conservative Insult Generator on TexanTa.


    You keep calling me a fool ans idiot but live with the fact that your President will be a Black Democrat, and if he doesn't become one your daughter will wed a Black unemployed Democrat with a huge cock.

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    Discontent Buffets the Nation; Bush Craters, Obama Benefits
    Obama in Drivers Seat Amid Economic Worry

    ANALYSIS by GARY LANGER
    Oct. 13, 2008 —

    A tornado of economic discontent is buffeting the nation, sending satisfaction with the country's direction to a 35-year low, George W. Bush's approval rating below Richard Nixon's worst  and Barack Obama, boosted by economic empathy, to his best-yet advantage in the presidential race.

    Given the global economic crisis, a record 90 percent of registered voters say the country is seriously off on the wrong track, the most since this question first was asked in 1973. At 23 percent, Bush's job approval rating has fallen below Nixon's lowest; it's a point away from the lowest in 70 years of polling, set by Harry Truman in early 1952. Bush's disapproval, meanwhile, is at an all-time record  73 percent.

    Click here for a PDF with charts and full questionnaire.

    Powered chiefly by the public's economic concerns, Obama leads John McCain by 10 points among likely voters, 53-43 percent, in this ABC News/Washington Post poll. Though every race is different, no presidential candidate has come back from an October deficit this large in pre-election polls dating to 1936.

    Still, Obama's lead depends upon a shift in basic partisanship that will need to stand the test of turnout come Nov. 4. And while movable voters  those who haven't definitely made up their minds  have inched down to 13 percent, that's still more than enough to change the shape of the race.

    Given the critical elements at play, attention to the contest is extraordinary. Ninety-two percent of registered voters are following the election closely, 59 percent "very" closely  both mid-October records in ABC and ABC/Post pre-election polls back to 1988.

    WOE  Economic concerns are paramount. Nearly nine in 10 registered voters are worried about the economy's direction; nearly seven in 10 are worried about their own family finances. Fifty-five percent call the economy the single most important issue in their vote, with all other mentions in the single digits.

    Reflecting these economic worries, just 44 percent of Americans are confident they'll have enough money to carry them through retirement, down sharply from a high of 69 percent three years ago. At the same time, the public's economic concerns are long-running  consumer confidence hit a 22-year-low back in May  and not directly related to the stock market crash. As in the past, people are keeping the market in perspective; just 16 percent say it's hurt them "a great deal." (See separate analysis.)

    As first evident in an ABC/Post poll three weeks ago, Obama holds the reins on economic woe. Registered voters trust him over McCain to handle the economy by 53-37 percent. Obama holds his largest lead yet, a remarkable 30-point margin, in better understanding the economic problems Americans are having, 58-28 percent. He leads McCain by about as much, 59-31 percent, in trust to help the middle class, and by 11 points on taxes, two prime points of contention in the last presidential debate.

    WIND  The economy is not the only wind at Obama's back. McCain's receiving blowback for what's perceived as negative campaigning; registered voters by 59-35 percent say he's been mainly attacking Obama rather than addressing the issues. Obama, by contrast, is seen by an even wider margin as issue-focused. (See separate analysis.)

    The issue advantage helps Obama another way; among likely voters who say they care more about the candidates' positions on the issues than their personal qualities he leads McCain by a huge 39 points, 68-29 percent. McCain leads broadly among those who say personal qualities matter more, but there are fewer of them.

    The debates also seem to have helped Obama; 32 percent say they have a better opinion of him as a result of the two debates so far, vs. just 8 percent worse. For McCain it's 12 percent better, 26 percent worse. Their third and final debate is Wednesday.

    One apparent result of these factors is a drop in McCain's favorability rating, to 52 percent, a loss of 7 points since the Republican convention; 45 percent now see him unfavorably, a new high for McCain in polls since 1999. Obama's rating, meanwhile, is 64 percent favorable, near its high and up 6 points in the same time frame.

    Enthusiasm for McCain's candidacy, never strong, has softened alongside his favorability rating. Just 29 percent of his own supporters are "very enthusiastic" about his campaign, the fewest since August and down a sharp 17 points from his post-convention peak. By contrast, 63 percent of Obama's backers are very enthusiastic, steady since September.

    McCain's portrayal of Obama as a risky choice, further, is not resonating, and indeed may be backfiring. By 55-45 percent registered voters see Obama as safe rather than risky; by contrast, they divide 50-50 on whether McCain himself is safe or risky  down from 57-41 percent "safe" at McCain's best on this measure in June.

    Among other factors, part of this may relate to concerns about McCain's age; registered voters also divide 50-50 on whether they'd be comfortable with his taking office at age 72, his weakest rating to date on this question. It was 56-42 percent after his convention.

    AMMUNITION  McCain's not entirely out of ammunition. Even with the aura of negativity they've produced, there are some areas in which his criticisms have scored. He's moved closer on who's more honest and trustworthy, 44-40 percent Obama-McCain; that compares to a 47-36 percent Obama lead in an ABC/Post poll Sept. 22.

    McCain's also moved up (though still trails) on who would better stand up to lobbyists and special interest groups  the "maverick" pitch  and he remains competitive on handling Iraq, terrorism and an unexpected crisis, all potential selling points if he can overcome the current dynamic.

    Obama's greatest vulnerability remains experience, but McCain's failed to capitalize on it so far. Despite McCain's efforts, 54 percent say Obama has the experience it takes to serve effectively as president  a new high, albeit by a scant 2 points. Still, 45 percent say Obama lacks adequate experience, a lot to lose on this most basic qualification.

    Obama, though, has opened a 14-point lead as the stronger leader; maintains his broad advantage on bringing "needed change" to Washington; and holds significant advantages in trust to handle health care, Social Security and  notably  taxes, another point they've sharply debated. Forty-five percent think their taxes would go up under Obama, but about as many, 42 percent, think they'd go up under McCain, too.

    In terms of basic approach to governance, registered voters by 47-38 percent see a bigger risk that McCain would put in too few regulations than Obama putting in too many. And 47 percent are concerned McCain would do too much to represent the interests of large business corporations, up 6 points from June.

    Just 14 percent, meanwhile, think Obama would do too much to represent the interests of African-Americans. And, in contrast with concerns about McCain's age, 91 percent say they're comfortable with the idea of Obama being the first African-American president.

    BUSH AND PARTY ID  Another way to look at the challenge facing McCain is via the shadow of George W. Bush. Fifty-one percent of registered voters think McCain as president would lead the nation in the same direction as the profoundly unpopular Bush  as persistent a problem for McCain as experience has been for Obama.

    Among likely voters who approve of Bush, McCain's supported by 91 percent  but there are precious few of them. Those who disapprove of Bush, meanwhile, favor Obama over McCain by a 70-25 percent margin. All else equal, to pull into the barest lead over Obama, McCain needs to boost his share of Bush disapprovers to 38 percent or more.

    Other measures of discontent underscore the challenge. Among likely voters who say the country's off on the wrong track, Obama has a 16-point lead; ditto among those who are worried about the economy's direction. And among those who cite the economy as their top voting issue he leads McCain by 61-34 percent.

    Long-running dissatisfaction with Bush (he hasn't seen majority approval in 45 months, a record by far), the Iraq war and the economy has prompted a flight from the Republican Party. On average in 2003, for the first time since ABC News started polling in 1981, equal numbers of Americans identified themselves as Democrats and Republicans. That's turned around; on average this year there's been a 10-point advantage in Democratic self-identification.

    Specifically among likely voters, this poll finds a 9-point advantage for the Democrats  39 percent identify themselves as Democrats, 30 percent as Republicans, the rest as independents or something else. If that holds on Election Day it'll be a departure from turnout in presidential elections since 1984, in which Democrats have held at most a 4-point edge. But given the level of current discontent with Bush, and the overall trend in party identification the last five years, it could.

    One factor that's tended to help Republicans is the fact that the country is more center-right than center-left ideologically; on average, half again as many voters call themselves conservatives as liberals. But McCain nonetheless places less well than Obama does: Just 39 percent of registered voters call McCain "about right" ideologically, compared with 55 percent for Obama. A key reason is that 47 percent of moderates call McCain too conservative, more than the 29 percent who call Obama too liberal.

    GROUPS  A note of caution in this election is the unusual movability in key swing groups  especially, again, independents, white Catholics and married women, all of which at various points have moved markedly in vote preference.

    Obama now leads by 10 points among independents, 51-41 percent, and runs a competitive 51-46 percent against McCain among married women. White Catholics, however, favor McCain by 54-41 percent  worth watching, as they've backed the winner in each of the last eight presidential elections.

    Obama makes it back, perhaps surprisingly, among non-evangelical white Protestants; normally a Republican group, they now tilt toward the Democrat  for the first time in ABC/Post polls this cycle  by 53-44 percent.

    Among all white voters, McCain leads Obama by 7 points, 52-45 percent; that, however, is a bit less than the average Republican advantage among whites in presidential elections. Obama makes it back with 95 percent of blacks, as well as clear majority support among Hispanics.

    There's a big gender gap. McCain and Obama are even among men; among women, who are more apt to be Democrats, Obama holds an 18-point lead, tying his biggest of the campaign. And Obama holds his best support to date, 81 percent, among sought-after Clinton Democrats  Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who preferred Hillary Clinton for the nomination.

    Again, though, there are the movables, disproportionately likely to include some of the swing groups  20 percent of white Catholics and 22 percent of independents. Movables may be a hard sell; while they could change their minds, half say it's "pretty unlikely." But movable they are, and until they settle, McCain may be down  but not out.

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    Yes, BOTH parties are responsible...But there are a large number of people out there who don't realize that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TexanTA1996 View Post
    Yes, BOTH parties are responsible...But there are a large number of people out there who don't realize that.
    Me, the one you call idiot knows that.
    You seem to take it personal when I post anything negative about your party, I do it to both parties kid.

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    Quote Originally Posted by min0 lee View Post
    Bill Clemmens, 60, a white, small businessman who supports Democrat Barack Obama.

    He's gonna be singing a different tune when his small business gets taxed into extinction.
    Rules? You mean we have RULES for that???

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    Once you vote black it will never go back.

    Last edited by Hoglander; 10-15-2008 at 09:17 PM.

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