Preseason Top 25: Trust us -- it's a work in progress
Jan. 15, 2007
By Dennis Dodd
CBS Sports
How do you rank teams when you don't know who is playing for them?
The early-entry deadline is the best thing the NFL ever did for colleges. And vice versa. The NFL wants to know who is coming. College coaches want to know who is leaving. Everyone will know for sure by the end of the week.
John David Booty and USC are Dennis Dodd's preseason No. 1. (Getty Images)
So why were some scribes cranking out 2007 Top 25s before the last Buckeye fan has cleared out of the Glendale, Ariz. Sizzler?
Either they were hungry or lazy. Maybe both.
Monday was the deadline for juniors to declare for the draft. That's why I waited until the last minute -- defined as mid-January in this case -- to pick a preseason top 25.
In the past few days, Ohio State lost three offensive starters (Ted Ginn Jr., Anthony Gonzalez, Antonio Pittman). USC lost a two-time All-American receiver (Dwayne Jarrett). Texas (Ramonce Taylor) and Minnesota (Gary Russell) lost a couple of former running backs who weren't even in school last season.
Louisville lost a back who barely played (Michael Bush) but retained its veteran quarterback. Consider Brian Brohm the first commitment for new coach Steve Kragthorpe.
It isn't over yet. Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Hawaii's Colt Brennan themselves waited until the last minute Monday. In terms of the Top 25, that means Notre Dame is in and Hawaii is out.
However, like Brennan, I reserve the right to change my mind. Hawaii's quarterback has until Friday to pull his name back out.
Me? Check back frequently.
1. USC: How do you pick a team that lost twice down the stretch and its top two receivers and featured a spotty running game? Easy. Ten starters return on defense. If John David Booty can't get the job done at quarterback, Mark Sanchez will.
2. Michigan: The Triplets (Chad Henne, Michael Hart, Jake Long) will have to outscore opponents. The defense takes a big hit, but the Ohio State game is at home. Rumors are circulating that the Wolverines really want to win that one.
3. West Virginia: R-Rod is back. So are juniors Patrick White and Steve Slaton. The defense will have to learn to tackle better. Eight returning starters get their chance.
4. Florida: Can the Gators be better? Probably not. The defense took a tremendous hit, especially since there's no Ohio State to pick on in '07. The offense will be more conventional because there is no Tim Tebow to back up ... Tim Tebow.
5. Wisconsin: A national championship berth is not out of the question for Bret Bielema in his second season. Outland winner Joe Thomas is gone, but that doesn't seem to matter in Madison. Some other beefcake will slip into his place and carve out a way for tailback P.J. Hill.
6. Louisville: It's not the coach, it's the AD. Tom Jurich moved quickly to replace traitor Bobby Petrino with Kragthorpe. Brohm's return makes a defense of the Big East title more than possible.
7. Texas: The 'Horns are loaded. Where have you read that before? Colt McCoy tied the freshman passing touchdown record in Texas' "rebuilding" year. Once again, it's get past Oklahoma (Oct. 6) and an undefeated season is in sight.
8. TCU: This year's version of Boise State has the schedule and the coach to make a run. Assuming Gary Patterson returns, this will be the best defense he has had in Fort Worth. Expect another 10-win season.
9. Arkansas: Two 1,000-yard rushers. A rising superstar at quarterback. If Houston Nutt wins the SEC, would that satisfy the parents? They already ran off o-coordinator Gus Malzahn, who went to Tulsa this week.
10. LSU: Senior Matt Flynn isn't the dynamic presence that JaMarcus Russell was but still has a chance to win 10 as the new quarterback. Bo Pelini is still coaching the defense. The SEC road games are at Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi State.
11. Virginia Tech: Frank Beamer is known for winning 10 and playing great defense. There's more of the same as Beamer welcomes back perhaps the nation's best set of linebackers.
12. Auburn: Trips to Arkansas and Florida keep the Tigers from the top 10 and the SEC title. Have faith in the defense and in Brad Lester and Ben Tate to replace tailback Kenny Irons.
13. Cal: No Marshawn Lynch? No problem. Jeff Tedford is the Bears' best coach since Pappy Waldorf. Defense is an issue, but excitement isn't. Watch PR/WR DeSean Jackson.
14. Oklahoma: This seems to be another rebuilding year, but if the Sooners find a quarterback, they are in contention. The loss of Peterson is eased by Allen Patrick (761 yards) and Chris Brown (4.9 yards per carry).
15. Rutgers: Ray Rice is a Heisman frontrunner. But the college football world has been alerted. No more sneaking up.
16. Georgia: The offensive line had better be rebuilt or Matthew Stafford will suffer in his first full season as the starter.
17. South Carolina: I expected the Gamecocks to contend for the SEC East by now. It won't happen just yet. The defense will have to carry Steve Spurrier.
18. Boise State: Overall, the Broncos will take some hits, but Ian Johnson will deliver some. It's the WAC; how far can the Broncos fall?
19. Nebraska: Steady progress by Bill Callahan's first three seasons. Expect another Big 12 North title in Year 4.
20. Ohio State: Smith, Ginn Jr., Gonzalez, Pittman: Gone. Get used to Todd Boeckman at quarterback. Also get used to three or four losses.
21. Texas A&M: Just when you wanted to buy in, the Aggies got punked by Cal in the Holiday Bowl. A lot coming back but I can't see better than third place in the Big 12 South.
22. Boston College: Matt Ryan might be the best quarterback in the ACC. BC gets an automatic spot with seven consecutive bowl wins.
23. Oklahoma State: Tremendous offensive talent. The defense can't stop air. The Pokes will upset someone but get embarrassed, too.
24. Notre Dame: No Brady. No Darius. No BCS bowl. A squeezably soft November schedule. The Irish will win at least seven. The real show is finding out how good a coach Charlie Weis really is in this transition year.
25. South Florida: You're wondering why Miami and Florida State aren't here? The Bulls return 16 starters from a team that won nine and beat West Virginia.
Ten to Watch
Alabama
Clemson
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Kentucky
Maryland
Miami
Penn State
Oregon State
Wake Forest
Jan. 15, 2007
By Dennis Dodd
CBS Sports
How do you rank teams when you don't know who is playing for them?
The early-entry deadline is the best thing the NFL ever did for colleges. And vice versa. The NFL wants to know who is coming. College coaches want to know who is leaving. Everyone will know for sure by the end of the week.
John David Booty and USC are Dennis Dodd's preseason No. 1. (Getty Images)
So why were some scribes cranking out 2007 Top 25s before the last Buckeye fan has cleared out of the Glendale, Ariz. Sizzler?
Either they were hungry or lazy. Maybe both.
Monday was the deadline for juniors to declare for the draft. That's why I waited until the last minute -- defined as mid-January in this case -- to pick a preseason top 25.
In the past few days, Ohio State lost three offensive starters (Ted Ginn Jr., Anthony Gonzalez, Antonio Pittman). USC lost a two-time All-American receiver (Dwayne Jarrett). Texas (Ramonce Taylor) and Minnesota (Gary Russell) lost a couple of former running backs who weren't even in school last season.
Louisville lost a back who barely played (Michael Bush) but retained its veteran quarterback. Consider Brian Brohm the first commitment for new coach Steve Kragthorpe.
It isn't over yet. Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson and Hawaii's Colt Brennan themselves waited until the last minute Monday. In terms of the Top 25, that means Notre Dame is in and Hawaii is out.
However, like Brennan, I reserve the right to change my mind. Hawaii's quarterback has until Friday to pull his name back out.
Me? Check back frequently.
1. USC: How do you pick a team that lost twice down the stretch and its top two receivers and featured a spotty running game? Easy. Ten starters return on defense. If John David Booty can't get the job done at quarterback, Mark Sanchez will.
2. Michigan: The Triplets (Chad Henne, Michael Hart, Jake Long) will have to outscore opponents. The defense takes a big hit, but the Ohio State game is at home. Rumors are circulating that the Wolverines really want to win that one.
3. West Virginia: R-Rod is back. So are juniors Patrick White and Steve Slaton. The defense will have to learn to tackle better. Eight returning starters get their chance.
4. Florida: Can the Gators be better? Probably not. The defense took a tremendous hit, especially since there's no Ohio State to pick on in '07. The offense will be more conventional because there is no Tim Tebow to back up ... Tim Tebow.
5. Wisconsin: A national championship berth is not out of the question for Bret Bielema in his second season. Outland winner Joe Thomas is gone, but that doesn't seem to matter in Madison. Some other beefcake will slip into his place and carve out a way for tailback P.J. Hill.
6. Louisville: It's not the coach, it's the AD. Tom Jurich moved quickly to replace traitor Bobby Petrino with Kragthorpe. Brohm's return makes a defense of the Big East title more than possible.
7. Texas: The 'Horns are loaded. Where have you read that before? Colt McCoy tied the freshman passing touchdown record in Texas' "rebuilding" year. Once again, it's get past Oklahoma (Oct. 6) and an undefeated season is in sight.
8. TCU: This year's version of Boise State has the schedule and the coach to make a run. Assuming Gary Patterson returns, this will be the best defense he has had in Fort Worth. Expect another 10-win season.
9. Arkansas: Two 1,000-yard rushers. A rising superstar at quarterback. If Houston Nutt wins the SEC, would that satisfy the parents? They already ran off o-coordinator Gus Malzahn, who went to Tulsa this week.
10. LSU: Senior Matt Flynn isn't the dynamic presence that JaMarcus Russell was but still has a chance to win 10 as the new quarterback. Bo Pelini is still coaching the defense. The SEC road games are at Mississippi, Alabama, Kentucky and Mississippi State.
11. Virginia Tech: Frank Beamer is known for winning 10 and playing great defense. There's more of the same as Beamer welcomes back perhaps the nation's best set of linebackers.
12. Auburn: Trips to Arkansas and Florida keep the Tigers from the top 10 and the SEC title. Have faith in the defense and in Brad Lester and Ben Tate to replace tailback Kenny Irons.
13. Cal: No Marshawn Lynch? No problem. Jeff Tedford is the Bears' best coach since Pappy Waldorf. Defense is an issue, but excitement isn't. Watch PR/WR DeSean Jackson.
14. Oklahoma: This seems to be another rebuilding year, but if the Sooners find a quarterback, they are in contention. The loss of Peterson is eased by Allen Patrick (761 yards) and Chris Brown (4.9 yards per carry).
15. Rutgers: Ray Rice is a Heisman frontrunner. But the college football world has been alerted. No more sneaking up.
16. Georgia: The offensive line had better be rebuilt or Matthew Stafford will suffer in his first full season as the starter.
17. South Carolina: I expected the Gamecocks to contend for the SEC East by now. It won't happen just yet. The defense will have to carry Steve Spurrier.
18. Boise State: Overall, the Broncos will take some hits, but Ian Johnson will deliver some. It's the WAC; how far can the Broncos fall?
19. Nebraska: Steady progress by Bill Callahan's first three seasons. Expect another Big 12 North title in Year 4.
20. Ohio State: Smith, Ginn Jr., Gonzalez, Pittman: Gone. Get used to Todd Boeckman at quarterback. Also get used to three or four losses.
21. Texas A&M: Just when you wanted to buy in, the Aggies got punked by Cal in the Holiday Bowl. A lot coming back but I can't see better than third place in the Big 12 South.
22. Boston College: Matt Ryan might be the best quarterback in the ACC. BC gets an automatic spot with seven consecutive bowl wins.
23. Oklahoma State: Tremendous offensive talent. The defense can't stop air. The Pokes will upset someone but get embarrassed, too.
24. Notre Dame: No Brady. No Darius. No BCS bowl. A squeezably soft November schedule. The Irish will win at least seven. The real show is finding out how good a coach Charlie Weis really is in this transition year.
25. South Florida: You're wondering why Miami and Florida State aren't here? The Bulls return 16 starters from a team that won nine and beat West Virginia.
Ten to Watch
Alabama
Clemson
Florida State
Georgia Tech
Kentucky
Maryland
Miami
Penn State
Oregon State
Wake Forest