A-Rod comes through, grand slam!
Was it when it mattered?
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A-Rod comes through, grand slam!
Righty left Sunday's game against Rays with left hip injury.
Tie ball game.
Of course it mattered.
BY ANTHONY MCCARRON
DAILY NEWS SPORTS WRITER
Sunday, September 14th 2008, 10:23 PM
Cataffo/News
Derek Jeter
Derek Jeter said he'd never heard cheers during an at-bat in which he hit into a double play, so maybe that says something about the record Jeter tied during Sunday's victory over the Rays. Heck, even Jeter, who doesn't get overly jazzed about milestones, seemed touched.
Jeter had three more hits - he was 9-for-11 in the series - and matched Lou Gehrig's mark for career hits at Yankee Stadium with 1,269. Before he came to the plate in the seventh with a chance to break the record, fans showered him with encouragement as he warmed up in the on-deck circle. When he went to hit, everyone in the crowd of 54,279 stood and hollered, and they kept it up even though he bounced into a 5-4-3 twin kill.
The One About Win Probability -- The Hardball TimesHere's the basic idea. An average team, at any point in a game, has a certain likelihood of winning the game. For instance, if you're leading by two runs in the ninth inning, your chances of winning the game are much greater than if you're leading by three runs in the first inning. With each change in the score, inning, number of outs, base situation or even pitch, there is a change in the average team's probability of winning the game.
Christopher Shea has invented a "Win Expectancy Finder" to look up the actual Win Probability of every base/out, inning and score combination of all Major League games from 1979 to 1990. Chris used Retrosheet data that had been compiled by Phil Birnbaum, and his WE Finder simply looks up the percent of times a team in a given situation went on to win the game during those years. Next time you watch a ballgame, use it to track the ups and downs of the game. It will change the way you watch baseball.
Here's an example: Bottom of the ninth, score tied, runner on first, no one out. The home team has a 71% chance of winning according to the Win Expectancy Finder (in this situation, the home team won 1,878 of 2,631 games between 1979 and 1990). Let's say the batter bunts the runner to second. Good idea, right? Well, after a successful bunt, with a runner on second and one out, the Win Probability actually decreases slightly to 70% (home team won 1300 of 1,848 games), according to the WE Finder. The bunter hasn't really helped or hurt his team; his bunt was a neutral event.
If you're managing a team, or even following the game, you might want to know this sort of thing. Of course, the application of actual strategy (should he bunt or not?) depends on a lot of other factors, such as the skills of the batter, the pitcher and the baserunner, the following batters in the order, the game conditions and probably a number of other things. But Win Probability sets the baseline for evaluating each event on the field.
To really have fun with this system, you can take it one step further and track something Drinen calls "Win Probability Added" (WPA).
Once again, the concept is simple. Let's say our batter in the bottom of the ninth hits a single to put runners on first and third with no outs. This increases the Win Probability from 71% to 87%, for a gain of 16%. So, in a WPA system you credit the batter +.16 and debit the pitcher/fielder -.16. If you add up every positive and negative event from the beginning to the end of a game, you wind up with a total for the winning team of .5, and a total for the losing team of -.5. And the player with the most points will have contributed the most to his team's win.
By the way, that 87% with runners on first and third in the bottom of the ninth is on the low side for reasons I'll discuss in a minute.
If you were to track an entire season in this manner, you would have a Win Contribution metric that is more accurate than Win Shares, because it is based on how much each event actually contributed to the team's wins. In a way, WPA is the ultimate baseball statistic. And in a way, it is not.
Like Win Shares, WPA is not a good predictive statistic because it's not necessarily a good representation of a player's true talent. If a player hits a home run in the ninth inning of a 1-0 game, he is credited with more WPA points than if he hits a home run in the first inning of a 1-0 game. The talent is the ability to hit the home run; when it happens in a game is something that is pretty random. When you are thinking of acquiring a player for your fantasy team, you should rely more on the traditional sabermetric stats, like Linear Weights, Runs Created, DIPS, etc. etc.
Also, WPA measures the impact of an event while the game is in progress, not after the game is over. After the game is over, the score is 1-0, and it doesn't matter when the batter hit the home run. But during the game, it matters a lot. Good managerial strategies, for instance, are based on an implicit understanding of Win Probabilities. And if there is such a thing as clutch performance, WPA might unearth it.
As somebody who's fascinated by sabermetrics, I find this startling.
A-Rod's Win Probability Added for the last two seasons:
2007: 6.85
2008: 0.40
The One About Win Probability -- The Hardball Times
Going against everything I've been saying, this one statistic basically rates A-Rod at the bottom portion of the league in terms of how well he performs in late/"clutch" situations.
I also included his WPA from 2007 which was one of the highest in all of baseball last season.
What does this all mean?
It means A-Rod, despite leading the American League in slugging percentage and being tied for fourth in on-base percentage has been a considerably worse player in late game situations than he has been in early/"non-clutch" situations.
It also means, that even though he underperformed in the playoffs last year, A-Rod was one of the most effective players in the game in late/"clutch" situations in the regular season last year.
In 2006, he had a WPA rating similar to this season and in 2005, his numbers in late/"clutch" situations shot right back up reminiscent of last season.
I'm not a huge fan of this metric or of the word "clutch" because if somebody is having the kind of season that Alex Rodriguez is having, he's without question helping his team win ball games. Still, to have the MVP caliber season that he's having and to have a WPA so low is telling of just how bad he's performed in high leverage situations this season.
Given these numbers, can you say that A-Rod is an "unclutch" player? Absolutely not, because in high leverage situations last year he was tops in the league.
I'm rambling now, but basically put:
You can't say A-Rod is an unclutch player because he's been as clutch as they come every other year. You also can't say he's a clutch player because he's been as unclutch as they come every other year.
As somebody who's fascinated by sabermetrics, I find this startling.
A-Rod's Win Probability Added for the last two seasons:
2007: 6.85
2008: 0.40
The One About Win Probability -- The Hardball Times
Going against everything I've been saying, this one statistic basically rates A-Rod at the bottom portion of the league in terms of how well he performs in late/"clutch" situations.
I also included his WPA from 2007 which was one of the highest in all of baseball last season.
What does this all mean?
It means A-Rod, despite leading the American League in slugging percentage and being tied for fourth in on-base percentage has been a considerably worse player in late game situations than he has been in early/"non-clutch" situations.
It also means, that even though he underperformed in the playoffs last year, A-Rod was one of the most effective players in the game in late/"clutch" situations in the regular season last year.
In 2006, he had a WPA rating similar to this season and in 2005, his numbers in late/"clutch" situations shot right back up reminiscent of last season.
I'm not a huge fan of this metric or of the word "clutch" because if somebody is having the kind of season that Alex Rodriguez is having, he's without question helping his team win ball games. Still, to have the MVP caliber season that he's having and to have a WPA so low is telling of just how bad he's performed in high leverage situations this season.
Given these numbers, can you say that A-Rod is an "unclutch" player? Absolutely not, because in high leverage situations last year he was tops in the league.
I'm rambling now, but basically put:
You can't say A-Rod is an unclutch player because he's been as clutch as they come every other year. You also can't say he's a clutch player because he's been as unclutch as they come every other year.
Also,
the Yankees demise last season had little to do with Alex Rodriguez. The entire team struggled and as much as Yankee fans want to deny this, Derek Jeter was the worst player on that team last year in the playoffs.
IMO, the A-Rod hate stems from the fact that Jeter is such a respected Yankee. Given that A-Rod is twice the ball player that Jeter ever was, given that they played the same position and Rodriguez was better both offensively and defensively when originally coming over, etc. it makes sense that the New York media would (once again) paint Rodriguez as such a villain.
It happened with Maris/Mantle, and the Jeter/Rodriguez situation isn't very different.
Final thing before my class begins.
Looking at Derek Jeter' baseball reference page, the top players that compare to him in terms of numbers are Barry Larkin, Alan Trammell, Ray Durham, Ryne Sandberg and Roberto Alomar.
I'm not trying to take anything away from Derek Jeter, but if he hadn't been drafted by the Yankees, had Jeremy Giambi slid into homeplate in the ALDS years ago, etc. there is not one single chance we're talking about a nine time all-star here.
More than likely he'd be a very dynamic ball player who was tossed from team to team every 4-5 years, never won a World Series and made about half of the $140 million dollars he's made over the course of his career.
A-Rod's eighth-inning home run was his 35th of the season, giving him 11 straight seasons of 35 or more homers and 12 in his career (1996, 1998-2008), tying Babe Ruth for the most such seasons all-time and passing Hank Aaron and Mike Schmidt. He called the accomplishment "very humbling."
Jeter played in his 1,000th game at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday, joining only four other Yankees. With only four games remaining, Jeter will finish behind Mickey Mantle (1,213), Lou Gehrig (1,080), Yogi Berra (1,068) and Bernie Williams (1,039) for career games played at Yankee Stadium. ... Jeter is bidding farewell to the ballpark in style, hitting .444 (32-for-72) over his past 18 games at Yankee Stadium since Aug. 1, with 11 multihit games. ... Phil Coke has not allowed a run in his first seven Major League appearances (10 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 SO). ... The Yankees will welcome 102-year-old Emilio "Millito" Navarro to Yankee Stadium on Thursday, the first Puerto Rican to play in the Negro Leagues and the oldest living professional baseball player. Navarro was selected by the Yankees in MLB's 2008 Special Negro League Draft on June 5.
that game shouldn't have even been on prime time TV...how boring!
Seriously...who the fuck cares! The yanks aren't in the playoff picutre. they sucked this year and they were playing baltimore. Why even put that shit on TV? just because it is the skankees....i hate that team.
-- On the divisional setup: "... If you want to talk about things that infuriate me about the game today, revenue sharing doesn't top the list. The biggest problem is the divisional setup in major league baseball. I didn't like it in the 1970s, and I hate it now. Baseball went to a multidivision setup to create more races, rivalries and excitement. But it isn't fair. You see it this season, with plenty of people in the media pointing out that Joe Torre and the Dodgers are going to the playoffs while we're not. This is by no means a knock on Torre -- let me make that clear--but look at the division they're in. If L.A. were in the A.L. East, it wouldn't be in the playoff discussion. The A.L. East is never weak."
-- On Joe Torre: "I'm happy for Joe, but you have to compare the divisions and the competition. What if the Yankees finish the season with more wins than the Dodgers but the Dodgers make the playoffs? Does that make the Dodgers a better team? No."
-- On his case for the divisional setup not being good for the game: "Go back to the 2006 season. St. Louis winning the World Series -- that was ridiculous. The Cardinals won their division with 83 wins -- two fewer than the Phillies, who missed the postseason. People will say the Cardinals were the best team because they won the World Series. Well, no, they weren't. They just got hot at the right time. They didn't even belong in the playoffs. And neither does a team from the N.L. West this season."
A few points: The last Yankees team that won the World Series had 87 wins. There were eight other teams in baseball with more wins that season. So apparently the Yankees weren’t the best team that season, they just got hot at the right time, right Hank? I guess the Yankees should give that trophy back.
I’ll try to explain this as simply as I can.
Before the game, Joe Girardi told us that Mariano Rivera went back to New York to get his standard end-of-the-season physical. He wasn’t going to pitch anyway, the manager said, because he had a “cranky body.”
Girardi was asked several times and in several ways whether Rivera had an injury to his elbow and shoulder. He denied it every time. The questions were very exact. “He said his whole body was cranky,” Girardi said.
This made no sense. Rivera lives in New York all year, he can get his physical any time. Why leave now? I’ve never once heard of a player leaving a road trip to get a “standard physical.” Beyond that, this is Mariano Rivera. It made sense to check this out.
Most of the writers called Brian Cashman. The GM said the Rivera complained about a sore shoulder after Tuesday’s game and was sent back to New York to get an MRI. The Yankees wanted to make sure their closer is OK. Cashman said he isn’t too concerned but was waiting to get the results of the MRI.
Cashman said it was not a standard physical. The New York Times, meanwhile, is reporting that Rivera could need surgery.
After the game today, Girardi stuck to the “cranky body” story and denied that Rivera ever said his shoulder hurt, which contradicts what his boss said. Let’s assume for a second that this is true. If you were the manager of the Yankees and Rivera came to you and said he had a “cranky body” wouldn’t you ask him what was wrong? It is Mariano Rivera, after all. So either Girardi is not telling the truth or he’s irresponsible.
The LoHud Yankees BlogGirardi got contentious when asked about his misleading statements, slamming his fist down on his desk. It’s similar to what happened earlier this season when Phil Hughes, Brian Bruney, Chien-Ming Wang and Jorge Posada got hurt. Girardi’a first inclination is to be misleading.
It has gotten to the point where team officials now apologize to reporters for the manager’s actions. Nobody is sure why he does it because he gets caught every time.
This team is screwed.