Sports Review Magazine - Cardinals can and should go after A-Rod this offseason
Yeah, I said it.
I meant it too.
Whether they will admit to it or not, the Cardinals have the means to sign the best all-around player in the game and make him their starting shortstop for the next 5-7 seasons. Not only can they do it, they should.
Why?
Two reasons: winning and money.
This team lacks production in the middle of the order and having someone like A-Rod hitting 4th would erase that gaping hole in the middle and put everyone else in a better place.
Who could better protect Albert Pujols than the youngest player to ever reach 500 home runs?
Regardless of what they would have to pay him - let's just say $30 million a year for the sake of argument even though I doubt that's going to happen - he would make the team money rather than drain them of it. This is a guy who is going to be chasing down 800 home runs 5-6 years from now and there hasn't been a hint of steroid abuse with A-Rod.
Coming off a tumultuous stint in New York, A-Rod would likely welcome the calm and friendly atmosphere of a great baseball town like St. Louis. He would love it here. People would love and cheer for him without feeling the need to peck at his every move in search of some flaw they could exploit.
Don't let Cards' ownership fool you. They have the money to make this happen if they want to. As I pointed out in this space two months ago (KMOX - Are the Cardinals cheapskates or not? You make the call, the money is there. It should also be pointed out that having someone of A-Rod stature chasing big time home run records will GUARANTEE strong attendance in the future regardless of whether or not the team is winning. Look at the Giants - everyone HATES Bonds but they sellout every home game and are the 4th highest drawing road team in baseball this season despite being a last place team. Imagine what that could be with A-Rod chasing 800 homers...
While A-Rod may or may not want to come to St. Louis, the Cards owe it to themselves and to their fans to make an honest effort to land this megastar. Here's how they can make it happen....
1) Allow David Eckstein, Kip Wells, Preston Wilson, So Taguchi, Russ Springer and Mike Maroth to walk at the end of this season. That will save them $13.75 million heading into 2008. These are all replaceable parts. Some have had solid tenures in St. Louis, some have not, but none of them are essential to the future of this franchise.
2) Find a way to deal RF Juan Encarnacion and free up at least a portion of the $6.5 million he is owed for next season. If they simply dump the salary without asking for anything significant in return they might find someone to take all of that contract. Heck, the Pirates took on nearly $14 million for Matt Morris so there has to be someone willing to take $6.5 million for a solid corner outfielder with playoff experience. Combine that with the above savings and you have $20.25 million to play with. If they can find anyone to take Adam Kennedy, even if the Cards have to eat half of his remaining salary (he is owed a little more than $6 million for the next two years) they can save $3 million. $1.5 million a year would not be too much for another team to add Kennedy as a reserve infielder, that's about what reserve infielders make anyway, and the Cards have Aaron Miles, Brendan Ryan and Jarrett Hoffpauir to play second base.
3) Raise the payroll from $96-100 million this season to $120 million for next season. As I pointed out in the article linked above, the money is there to make this kind of increase. If they say they can't afford that then they're lying.
It is also important to note that the team can also save another $36.8 million after the '08 season by letting Jim Edmonds, Juan Encarnacion (if he's not dealt before then), Jason Isringhausen, Mark Mulder, Braden Looper and Scott Spiezio walk away. They'll all be older, less valuable players after '08 than they are now anyway so I don't see any reason why letting them walk at that point would be terrible. If Mulder pitches like his old self in '08 then maybe you consider keeping him around for 2-3 more seasons but the others can be replaced by cheaper in-house options.
The team can also take solace in the fact that Scott Rolen's contract will come off the books about halfway through a 5-7 year deal for A-Rod. Rolen is up afte 2010 and that'll save $13 million a year.
With all the potential savings I've mentioned here the Cards could afford A-Rod and a veteran starting pitcher for the rotation. Aside from Carlos Zambrano, who I believe will stay in Chicago, there aren't any #1 starters available in free agency but there are some reliable veterans that could give the team some innings. Guys like Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte, Kenny Rogers and Livan Hernandez (not great, but guaranteed to save the bullpen) will be out there. That way you can piece together the rotation early in the season, rely on a deadly offense and deep, talented bullpen to get you by until someone (Dontrelle Willis? Johan Santana?) is available before the trading deadline.
So, with all of that out of the way, here is how I would envision this team looking in 2008 with A-Rod and a starting pitcher coming on board and raises due for several younger guys (some of those salaries are estimates by yours truly and they are marked with an * )...
C. Yadier Molina ($3,000,000) *
1B. Albert Pujols ($16,000,000)
2B. Brendan Ryan ($400,000) *
3B. Scott Rolen ($13,790,000)
SS. Alex Rodriguez ($30,000,000)
LF. Chris Duncan ($2,000,000) *
CF. Rick Ankiel ($500,000) *
RF. Jim Edmonds ($8,000,000)
B. Gary Bennett, C ($900,000)
B. Aaron Miles, IF ($1,500,000) *
B. Ryan Ludwick, OF ($500,000) *
B. Adam Kennedy, 2B ($3,500,000)
B. Skip Schumaker, OF ($400,000) *
B. Scott Spiezio, IF-OF ($2,400,000)
SP. Adam Wainwright ($2,500,000) *
SP. Mark Mulder ($6,500,000)
SP. Braden Looper ($5,500,000)
SP. (free agent) ($10,000,000) *
SP. Anthony Reyes ($400,000) *
CL. Jason Isringhausen ($8,000,000)
RP. Tyler Johnson ($600,000) *
RP. Josh Kinney ($400,000) *
RP. Ryan Franklin ($2,000,000)
RP. Randy Flores ($1,000,000)
RP. Brad Thompson ($500,000) *
RP. Chris Perez ($325,000) *
That comes to $120.6 million dollars of payroll for 2008. Now bear in mind that this is just a 1-year increase of that magnitude and that's assuming the addition of a $10 million starting pitcher. After '08 they have another $30 million coming off the books with players who can be replaced cheaply. Edmonds ($8 million in '08) is replaced by Colby Rasmus at the minimum. Izzy $8 million) is replaced by Chris Perez near the minimum. Spiezio ($2.4 million) is replaced by a younger, cheaper player. Looper ($5.5 million) can be replaced by Jaime Garcia making the minimum after '08. Adam Kennedy can be replaced after '09 by Jarrett Hoffpauir.
Once again, for the record, I don't believe that A-Rod will actually get $30 million a year in his next deal. I think it'll be more along the lines of the $25 million per season he makes now...
So, in closing, this team absolutely could get A-Rod to wear Cardinal Red. All it would take is a short-term committment to increasing the payroll. Long-term they would make obscene amounts of money by having him around - imagine all the A-Rod jerseys they would sell, all the sponsors they could have with a guy like that chasing home run records - and then everyone would be happy.
Even though it makes perfect sense (and cents) don't hold your breath waiting for it to happen. This team doesn't strike me as being forward-thinking enough to make this all happen.
Yeah, I said it.
I meant it too.
Whether they will admit to it or not, the Cardinals have the means to sign the best all-around player in the game and make him their starting shortstop for the next 5-7 seasons. Not only can they do it, they should.
Why?
Two reasons: winning and money.
This team lacks production in the middle of the order and having someone like A-Rod hitting 4th would erase that gaping hole in the middle and put everyone else in a better place.
Who could better protect Albert Pujols than the youngest player to ever reach 500 home runs?
Regardless of what they would have to pay him - let's just say $30 million a year for the sake of argument even though I doubt that's going to happen - he would make the team money rather than drain them of it. This is a guy who is going to be chasing down 800 home runs 5-6 years from now and there hasn't been a hint of steroid abuse with A-Rod.
Coming off a tumultuous stint in New York, A-Rod would likely welcome the calm and friendly atmosphere of a great baseball town like St. Louis. He would love it here. People would love and cheer for him without feeling the need to peck at his every move in search of some flaw they could exploit.
Don't let Cards' ownership fool you. They have the money to make this happen if they want to. As I pointed out in this space two months ago (KMOX - Are the Cardinals cheapskates or not? You make the call, the money is there. It should also be pointed out that having someone of A-Rod stature chasing big time home run records will GUARANTEE strong attendance in the future regardless of whether or not the team is winning. Look at the Giants - everyone HATES Bonds but they sellout every home game and are the 4th highest drawing road team in baseball this season despite being a last place team. Imagine what that could be with A-Rod chasing 800 homers...
While A-Rod may or may not want to come to St. Louis, the Cards owe it to themselves and to their fans to make an honest effort to land this megastar. Here's how they can make it happen....
1) Allow David Eckstein, Kip Wells, Preston Wilson, So Taguchi, Russ Springer and Mike Maroth to walk at the end of this season. That will save them $13.75 million heading into 2008. These are all replaceable parts. Some have had solid tenures in St. Louis, some have not, but none of them are essential to the future of this franchise.
2) Find a way to deal RF Juan Encarnacion and free up at least a portion of the $6.5 million he is owed for next season. If they simply dump the salary without asking for anything significant in return they might find someone to take all of that contract. Heck, the Pirates took on nearly $14 million for Matt Morris so there has to be someone willing to take $6.5 million for a solid corner outfielder with playoff experience. Combine that with the above savings and you have $20.25 million to play with. If they can find anyone to take Adam Kennedy, even if the Cards have to eat half of his remaining salary (he is owed a little more than $6 million for the next two years) they can save $3 million. $1.5 million a year would not be too much for another team to add Kennedy as a reserve infielder, that's about what reserve infielders make anyway, and the Cards have Aaron Miles, Brendan Ryan and Jarrett Hoffpauir to play second base.
3) Raise the payroll from $96-100 million this season to $120 million for next season. As I pointed out in the article linked above, the money is there to make this kind of increase. If they say they can't afford that then they're lying.
It is also important to note that the team can also save another $36.8 million after the '08 season by letting Jim Edmonds, Juan Encarnacion (if he's not dealt before then), Jason Isringhausen, Mark Mulder, Braden Looper and Scott Spiezio walk away. They'll all be older, less valuable players after '08 than they are now anyway so I don't see any reason why letting them walk at that point would be terrible. If Mulder pitches like his old self in '08 then maybe you consider keeping him around for 2-3 more seasons but the others can be replaced by cheaper in-house options.
The team can also take solace in the fact that Scott Rolen's contract will come off the books about halfway through a 5-7 year deal for A-Rod. Rolen is up afte 2010 and that'll save $13 million a year.
With all the potential savings I've mentioned here the Cards could afford A-Rod and a veteran starting pitcher for the rotation. Aside from Carlos Zambrano, who I believe will stay in Chicago, there aren't any #1 starters available in free agency but there are some reliable veterans that could give the team some innings. Guys like Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte, Kenny Rogers and Livan Hernandez (not great, but guaranteed to save the bullpen) will be out there. That way you can piece together the rotation early in the season, rely on a deadly offense and deep, talented bullpen to get you by until someone (Dontrelle Willis? Johan Santana?) is available before the trading deadline.
So, with all of that out of the way, here is how I would envision this team looking in 2008 with A-Rod and a starting pitcher coming on board and raises due for several younger guys (some of those salaries are estimates by yours truly and they are marked with an * )...
C. Yadier Molina ($3,000,000) *
1B. Albert Pujols ($16,000,000)
2B. Brendan Ryan ($400,000) *
3B. Scott Rolen ($13,790,000)
SS. Alex Rodriguez ($30,000,000)
LF. Chris Duncan ($2,000,000) *
CF. Rick Ankiel ($500,000) *
RF. Jim Edmonds ($8,000,000)
B. Gary Bennett, C ($900,000)
B. Aaron Miles, IF ($1,500,000) *
B. Ryan Ludwick, OF ($500,000) *
B. Adam Kennedy, 2B ($3,500,000)
B. Skip Schumaker, OF ($400,000) *
B. Scott Spiezio, IF-OF ($2,400,000)
SP. Adam Wainwright ($2,500,000) *
SP. Mark Mulder ($6,500,000)
SP. Braden Looper ($5,500,000)
SP. (free agent) ($10,000,000) *
SP. Anthony Reyes ($400,000) *
CL. Jason Isringhausen ($8,000,000)
RP. Tyler Johnson ($600,000) *
RP. Josh Kinney ($400,000) *
RP. Ryan Franklin ($2,000,000)
RP. Randy Flores ($1,000,000)
RP. Brad Thompson ($500,000) *
RP. Chris Perez ($325,000) *
That comes to $120.6 million dollars of payroll for 2008. Now bear in mind that this is just a 1-year increase of that magnitude and that's assuming the addition of a $10 million starting pitcher. After '08 they have another $30 million coming off the books with players who can be replaced cheaply. Edmonds ($8 million in '08) is replaced by Colby Rasmus at the minimum. Izzy $8 million) is replaced by Chris Perez near the minimum. Spiezio ($2.4 million) is replaced by a younger, cheaper player. Looper ($5.5 million) can be replaced by Jaime Garcia making the minimum after '08. Adam Kennedy can be replaced after '09 by Jarrett Hoffpauir.
Once again, for the record, I don't believe that A-Rod will actually get $30 million a year in his next deal. I think it'll be more along the lines of the $25 million per season he makes now...
So, in closing, this team absolutely could get A-Rod to wear Cardinal Red. All it would take is a short-term committment to increasing the payroll. Long-term they would make obscene amounts of money by having him around - imagine all the A-Rod jerseys they would sell, all the sponsors they could have with a guy like that chasing home run records - and then everyone would be happy.
Even though it makes perfect sense (and cents) don't hold your breath waiting for it to happen. This team doesn't strike me as being forward-thinking enough to make this all happen.
