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so then basically 50 shades of grey and twighlight saved your mill not obama.
A Las Vegas "oddsmaker" gives his reasons for big win by Romney in
November.
Interesting analysis.
Most political predictions are made by biased pollsters, pundits, or
prognosticators who are
either rooting for Republicans or Democrats.
I am neither. I am a former Libertarian Vice Presidential nominee, and a
well-known Vegas odds maker with one of the most accurate records of
predicting political races.
But as an odds maker with a pretty remarkable track record of picking
political races, I play no favorites. I simply use common sense to call
them as I see them. Back in late December I released my New Year's
Predictions. I predicted back then - before a single GOP primary had been
held, with Romney trailing for months to almost every GOP competitor from
Rick Perry to Herman Cain to Newt - that Romney would easily rout his
competition to win the GOP nomination by a landslide. I also predictedthat
the Presidential race between Obama and Romney would be very close until
election day. But that on election day Romney would win by a landslide
similar to Reagan-Carter in 1980.
Understanding history, today I am even more convinced of a resounding Romney
victory. 32 years ago at this moment in time, Reagan was losing by 9 points
to Carter. Romney is right now running even in polls. So why domost
pollsters give Obama the edge?
First, most pollsters are missing one ingredient- common sense. Here is my
gut instinct. Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago willswitch
to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people whovoted
for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or
scared about the future. Voters know Obama now - and that is a bad
harbinger.
Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:
**Black voters. Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His
endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going
Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in2008.
This is not good news for Obama.
**Jewish voters. Obama has been weak in his support of Israel . ManyJewish
voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish
support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60's. This is not good news for
Obama.
**Youth voters. Obama's biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years
ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are
disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is
long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual
voting percentages. This is not good news for Obama.
**Catholic voters. Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won't
happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the
Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic
Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.
**Small Business owners. Because I ran for Vice President last timearound,
and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small
business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and
supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to give someone different a chance.
As I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize
anyone who owned a business...that he'd support unions over the private
sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and
debt; my friends didn't listen. Four years later, I can't find one person
in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Notone.
This is not good news for Obama.
**Blue collar working class whites. Do I need to say a thing? White
working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans
feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.
**Suburban moms. The issue isn't about contraception, it's having a jobto
pay for contraception. Obama's economy frightens these moms. They are
worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children's
future. This is not good news for Obama.
**Military Veterans. McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney iswinning
by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the morethey
disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.
Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008?Will
anyone in America wake up on election day saying, I didn't vote for Obama 4
years ago, but he's done such a fantastic job, I can't wait to vote for him
today? Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job moresecure?
Forget the polls. My gut instincts as a Vegas odds maker and common sense
small businessman, tell me this will be a historic landslide and a
world-class repudiation of Obama's radical and risky socialist agenda. It's
Reagan-Carter all over again.
But I'll give Obama credit for one thing - he is living proof that
familiarity breeds contempt.
This whole fact vs lie thing wont work for anybody...except for the people who belived Obama would pay for their mortage and gas after he got elected. You cant change dumb.
This whole fact vs lie thing wont work for anybody...except for the people who belived Obama would pay for their mortage and gas after he got elected. You cant change dumb.
Obama has-been see below![]()