I don't think the Presidency will be decided on the basis of how the minority conservatives vote - especially those posturing on the Right. If the primaries have shown anything, it is how weak conservatives are, even in the Republican Party. McCain was their least favorite candidate, with the exception of Ron Paul. They can claim to make all the "points" they want, but all of the whining and gnashing and threatening from the favorite wingnut broadcasters hasn't slowed McCain down at all. Conservative columnists are furious, conservative broadcasters are livid - in their own words, there is no conservative candidate. There are even hints that Flip-floppin Mitt will rejoin the battle. He might have endorsed McCain, but he hasn't released his convention delegates. And the Huckster is still praying for a miracle, since he's this year's self-appointed representative from God.
It really doesn't matter if the hard-core conservative base votes for McCain. Judging from primary participation and inability of the RNC to raise money, the Republican party is in major trouble. And conservatives alone cannot elect a President - they couldn't even get one of their own through the primaries.
McCain was the least favorite of the conservatives (our slate sucked), but don't discount their importance. The evangelicals were credited with Bush's election in 2004 & 2008. They have excellent organization & are successful in getting out the vote. With how close this election will be, their support will very much be key.
McCain didn't win the conservative vote until just recently. He was getting far less than a majority. You can't say they aren't important.
I don't really think McCain will pander too much more to the right.. really not necessary. Unlike Obama who claims to "reach across the aisle" when he NEVER has, McCain has a clear history of doing so... he should do well with the Independants.
For the far right, it's going to come down to the judges. Their problem with him is his stance on stem cell research & not supporting a Constitutional ban on same-sex marriage. But again, against Obama or Clinton, the choice is pretty clear.
Primary participation does make me a little nervous, but like you said, we weren't happy with our candidates. That doesn't mean we will gift wrap the presidency.
You must have seen the support & donations McCain got after the New York Times published that pathetic story on him. He's going to rally the base, especially if Clinton pulls off an upset next week . It may be unlikely, but you'd would be foolish to count her out. She's leading in Texas & Ohio. Either way, Clinton will drive us to the polls, and when Obama is properly scrutinized, he will do the same.
Again, I agree this year doesn't look good for us, but I have hope: not Obama's kind of empty hope, but substantive hope.