40 years "LIMITS TO GROWTH" - this is a flash presentation and a summary of the book (Limits to Growth) which was written by analysts at MIT in the early 70's.
40 years "LIMITS TO GROWTH"
THE COUNT-UP TO 2052: AN OVERARCHING FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION. | THE CLUB OF ROME (www.clubofrome.org)
THE NEW REPORT TO THE CLUB OF ROME
BASIC ASSUMPTIONS
Humanity?s systems, which uphold ?business-as usual? are very resilient towards real change. Rapid change does not happen until people?s patience caused by the negative consequences of ?business-as-usual? (climate change effects, inequity, resource depletion) runs out. Society?s main institutions: democracy and economy are based on short-termism, resulting in a slow societal response to challenges, which need long-term solutions and investments.
SOME FINDINGS
?Limits to Growth? addressed an important question: Is the world in overshoot and if yes, will the landing be soft or will it be hard? Randers clearly believes, that humanity is in overshoot (mainly climate-related) and that the landing will not be soft, but less hard than feared. He believes, that
Humanity has a forty-year window to avoid the most serious negative consequences of its decades-long overconsumption splurge
The process of adapting humanity to the planet?s limitations may be too slow to stop planetary decline. Currently the human demand on the biosphere exceeds the global bio-capacity by some 40%
Global population will grow, peaking at 8.1 billion people in 2042 because of rapid decline in urban fertility
Global GDP will grow, but much slower than generally expected because of slow productivity growth in mature economies, and lack of take-off in the 186 poorer countries.
Global GDP will peak after 2052, and investment share of the GDP will grow as society is gradually forced to handle issues of depletion, pollution, biodiversity decline, climate change and inequity, slowing growth in consumption growth will slow, with fall in disposable income in some places
Global energy use will reach a peak in 2040, because of continued increase in energy efficiency
CO2 emissions will peak in 2030, because of a shift toward low-carbon sources of power and heat. Nevertheless, CO2 concentrations will grow, and the global average temperature will pass the danger threshold of +2 C by 2050, and peak at 2.8 C in 2080, which could trigger self-reinforcing ?run-away? warming with a possible collapse in the second half of the 21st century
The United States will experience the greatest stagnation, while the process of stagnation will occur more gradually in the other OECD countries. China and Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and ten leading emerging economies will progress, but this will still leave 3 billion people in severe poverty.
40 years "LIMITS TO GROWTH"
THE COUNT-UP TO 2052: AN OVERARCHING FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION. | THE CLUB OF ROME (www.clubofrome.org)
THE NEW REPORT TO THE CLUB OF ROME
BASIC ASSUMPTIONS
Humanity?s systems, which uphold ?business-as usual? are very resilient towards real change. Rapid change does not happen until people?s patience caused by the negative consequences of ?business-as-usual? (climate change effects, inequity, resource depletion) runs out. Society?s main institutions: democracy and economy are based on short-termism, resulting in a slow societal response to challenges, which need long-term solutions and investments.
SOME FINDINGS
?Limits to Growth? addressed an important question: Is the world in overshoot and if yes, will the landing be soft or will it be hard? Randers clearly believes, that humanity is in overshoot (mainly climate-related) and that the landing will not be soft, but less hard than feared. He believes, that
Humanity has a forty-year window to avoid the most serious negative consequences of its decades-long overconsumption splurge
The process of adapting humanity to the planet?s limitations may be too slow to stop planetary decline. Currently the human demand on the biosphere exceeds the global bio-capacity by some 40%
Global population will grow, peaking at 8.1 billion people in 2042 because of rapid decline in urban fertility
Global GDP will grow, but much slower than generally expected because of slow productivity growth in mature economies, and lack of take-off in the 186 poorer countries.
Global GDP will peak after 2052, and investment share of the GDP will grow as society is gradually forced to handle issues of depletion, pollution, biodiversity decline, climate change and inequity, slowing growth in consumption growth will slow, with fall in disposable income in some places
Global energy use will reach a peak in 2040, because of continued increase in energy efficiency
CO2 emissions will peak in 2030, because of a shift toward low-carbon sources of power and heat. Nevertheless, CO2 concentrations will grow, and the global average temperature will pass the danger threshold of +2 C by 2050, and peak at 2.8 C in 2080, which could trigger self-reinforcing ?run-away? warming with a possible collapse in the second half of the 21st century
The United States will experience the greatest stagnation, while the process of stagnation will occur more gradually in the other OECD countries. China and Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and ten leading emerging economies will progress, but this will still leave 3 billion people in severe poverty.
