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Greatest Depression Ever Prediction - Celente

I don't follow everything he says, but he does has some good insights.

Jobless Middle-Class New Yorkers Struggle to Get By
High Unemployment Takes Toll on Once-Thriving Neighborhoods, Where Foreclosures Are Up and Recovery Is Elusive

By SUZANNE SATALINE

High unemployment is spreading in New York City beyond the poorest neighborhoods to once-secure middle-class enclaves, where some residents are falling behind on rent and mortgage payments.

Among the hardest-hit spots are the northern Bronx and southeastern Queens. Both areas have seen unemployment double since the third quarter of 2007, according to the Fiscal Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank.

"The recovery in the labor market is a long way off and it will be a long time coming to middle-income neighborhoods," said James Parrott, the institute's deputy director and chief economist.

Close to half of all New Yorkers work for small and medium-size businesses, Mr. Parrot said, "and they don't readily recover in a downturn."

See estimated jobless rates in the third quarter of 2009 for New York City by geographic area and race.

New York City has shed 144,000 jobs since August 2008, leaving it with an unemployment rate of 10% as of November, on par with the national average. But some pockets are much worse, including neighborhoods that haven't typically experienced such severe joblessness.

The Bronx, with its big public-housing complexes, lower education levels and large unskilled population, long has had the highest unemployment rate in the city.

In the third quarter, the Bronx's jobless rate was 13%, the institute said. But in the northernmost stretch, populated by middle- and working-class families, bordering Westchester County suburbs, unemployment was 12.2% in the third quarter, more than double the rate of two years earlier, the institute found.
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Marc Faber on December 15, 2009. Worth the watch.
YouTube Video
 
Please watch this. Especially at the 4:00 minute mark when the Alt-A and prime (pick-a-pay) mortgage chart is released.

YouTube Video
 
chicken_little_strack350.jpg


quit being such negative Nancy's
 
^ Yes, there is a pessimistic tone in these stories, of which some are opinion, but others are based on statistics. Chicken Little has presented himself in different forms throughout history, but the coming times will be tough for many.
 
'Ovis aries vult decipi; decipiatur'..........If The Sheep wish to be deceived; let them be deceived.
 
Big Smoothy said:
A little update for 2010:

YouTube Video
Click to expand...

If anything I'm all for the Need for Beauty Trumping the Thrill for The Thuggish....

Maybe I will have a chance to get my poetry published as the "Slam" Poetry goes out of style, for too long all the new poetry was too Hip Hop, too angst for my predicament, my people, my ghetto, being a woman, being a black woman, being a black woman in the ghetto.....you know it's all been politics or social discourse why can't for once we honor some poets who write, I saw something beautiful today and I want to share or just poetry based in fantasy like Sam T. Coleridge's Kubla Khan.....and I'm all for an art renaissance desperate for one if I must admit.....
 
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IronMag Labs Prohormones
Big Smoothy said:
'Ovis aries vult decipi; decipiatur'..........If The Sheep wish to be deceived; let them be deceived.
Click to expand...
According to your hero there the sheep are going to roam out to their own fields....with less money comes less people consumed by consumerism, like he said people want to be happy, be high and if they don't have the money to buy happiness they are going to seek it in other ways, self-made with elegance and uniqueness is what he said, more people are going to become individuals again....

And all of his other predictions sound awesome, new third party, Stop immigration, no more Made in China cheap products so where is the deception?
 
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^ Please stay on topic. In times like these, some serious discussion is needed.

The next Mortgage Crash will start in 3 weeks and last for 2 full years.

Are you ready?
 
Big Smoothy said:
^ Please stay on topic. In times like these, some serious discussion is needed.

The next Mortgage Crash will start in 3 weeks and last for 2 full years.

Are you ready?
Click to expand...



Where do you live?
 
Folks, this is what I'm talking about, when I refer to the next Mortgage implosion that starts in 3 weeks, will uptick this May, and will last a full two years.

Worth a watch. Pay attention at the 1:40 mark.

YouTube Video
 
Big Smoothy said:
^ Please stay on topic. In times like these, some serious discussion is needed.

The next Mortgage Crash will start in 3 weeks and last for 2 full years.

Are you ready?
Click to expand...

Yes, I'm just about to close on my first property with a 5.25% fixed 30yr mortgage...prices are finally where they should be and I just entered the stock market in July (up 46% FY 2009). It a great time to spending and investing if you can afford it...I consider myself very blessed to land the job I did when I did.

The correction is needed and its going to be painful...it going to lower the quality of life for a lot of families, but why would anyone ever take an ARM with a balloon payment is beside me. I didn't make enough the past few years to own a home and I rented...many more should have done the same.
 
Whatever people want to call it, "depression," or "the big recession" or whatever.

It's BIG...and it's BAD.

And it's comprehensive:

High unemployment
long-term unemployment
housing
stock market
Federal debt
Federal annual deficits
Trade deficit
Individual per capita debt
declining wages
state budgets broke - states going bankrupt

Etcetera......

It will be tough for at least a few years, and the Americans I know of ALL ages have adapted and changed their thinking.

Accept that we are now in a depression, Stock Markets still grossly overvalued, poverty rates increase across midwest, a lots opportunity to regulate the banks,Goldman Sachs reports record profits and still bonusing employees richly, mainstream America goes on a financial diet, suburbs now home to American poor.

Few professionals are yet willing to admit we have been in a depression for the last year. You have to understand the position that economists and analysts are in. They work for corporations, insurance, Wall Street, banking and government and if they thought we were in a depression and they publicly announced that all chances for advancement would be lost or they would be squeezed out of the firm or simply fired. Under such circumstances can you ever expect that you get the truth? We don’t think so.

Furthermore the depression we are enveloped in is far from over. The recession encompassed a drop in real GDP in the midst of a credit crisis. The crisis was the result of over-extended credit, prohibitively low interest rates, massive speculation by banks, brokerage houses, insurance companies, and corporations worldwide. It just didn’t happen it was planned that way. We saw that recently in testimony before Congress when CEOs of these financial firms admitted they made a mistake in the process of enriching themselves.

The worst sin was the criminal securitization of mortgages and the deliberately criminal mislabeling of their ratings. Then making matters worse those who sold this toxic garbage to their clients such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup were shorting the product that they had just sold to their best clients. What kind of monsters are these people? Unethical doesn’t go far enough. It was criminal. These are the same characters, along with the Fed, and others, who gave us the dotcom boom and collapse and then foisted the real estate boom on our economy.

The result has been deflating assets and contracting credit offset by massive lending, money and credit creation by the Fed and monetization, all temporary expedient measures, which in the context of history has led to failure. This has been in process for seven years. This second major abuse of our system in 14 years has presented a terrible dilemma and that is where we are today. Our monetary policy hasn’t worked and won’t work and there has been and presently is little fiscal control in Washington. This is no normal recession; it is a depression.
Click to expand...

Link: We Are In A Depression, Not A Recovery - The International Forecaster
 
Big Smoothy said:
'Ovis aries vult decipi; decipiatur'..........If The Sheep wish to be deceived; let them be deceived.
Click to expand...

I don't say this that often i like your style. quis custodiet ipsos custodes.:coffee:


ruat coelum :coffee:
 
The Situation, thanks for the kind words.

Back to business (if we can call it that).

Target demotes 8,000.

Link included inside quotes at top:
http://jobs.aol.com/articles/2010/02...-8-000-ouch/

In an apparent effort to reduce the expense of health care and other employee benefits, a Target employee reports that he has just been informed that Target will down-grade as many as 8,000 employees from full-time to part-time. He is one of those full-time Specialists and Team Leaders who are being demoted.

The employee, who goes by "Michael," wrote an extensive missive to The Consumerist, stating that Specialist and Team Lead positions are being eliminated in all Target stores over the next several months. Those who hold those positions will be demoted to part-time status, being assigned under 32-hours per week and paid on a lesser, hourly basis.

To add insult to injury, many of these full-timers will be expected to train the part-timers to do their core jobs, before they are demoted. Some speculate that they will be so angry about this that they will quit, and entry level employees can be hired to replace the higher paid workers.

For the Target shopper, this means less experienced and knowledgeable customer service. Those familiar with Circuit City's demise note that the same tactics were attempted with Circuit City employees in order to save a buck, but shoppers became frustrated by the lack of customer service and expertise and began buying elsewhere. It took less than a year for Circuit City to declare bankruptcy after that move.

"If this is true, I'm going to vote with my wallet," said one Target shopper in a comment on the Consumerist post. "If you are going to no longer treat your employees decently, I'm no longer going to patronize your company. Since I currently spend $300+ per month at Target (in order to avoid giving any business at all to Walmart), I guess that $3,600+ a year is now going to be going to CostCo."
Click to expand...
 
Please watch this video on Oil and creating money by lending and borrowing. US will default.

YouTube Video
 
Yes, but it won't be unique to the US. Most countries will default in the future.

The ones with the manufacturing base and the ability to actually make things are the ones who will come out stronger for it. I'd bet that China becomes very powerful over the next 1-2 decades if this trend of outsourcing manufacturing continues.
 
Big Smoothy said:
Please watch this video on Oil and creating money by lending and borrowing. US will default.

YouTube Video
Click to expand...

Anytime the US the approaches default, we will simply expand the money supply and begin selling treasuries...as long as people (nations) continue to buy them, we won't default.

you can't measure those people's (nations) confidence under a quantitative analysis. So I don't see how USG default is a mathematical certainty. While I do think it is possible (and probably likely over the long term, 100yrs+) I highly doubt it is in the near future, nor do I see it being a total certainty.

There are also options for the US to freeze it repayments without default, like during a period war (conventional or asymmetric) with the lender. For example, if the US were to go war with China, it could reasonably freeze repayments to China under the condition of global security...after the war ends, repayment can renew; however, I would presume that large portions of debt would be quietly hidden as part of terms of surrender, like in WWII. (Assuming we won the hypothetical conflict). Many losing parties of war also default with little to no financial (not political though) repercussion, like in the US Civil War.

...yea, getting off topic:sorry:
 
danzik17 said:
Yes, but it won't be unique to the US. Most countries will default in the future.

The ones with the manufacturing base and the ability to actually make things are the ones who will come out stronger for it. I'd bet that China becomes very powerful over the next 1-2 decades if this trend of outsourcing manufacturing continues.
Click to expand...

It won't just be having the capacity for manufacturing (like China, Korea, Germany, and the US....yes, we still have a large capacity for manufacturing) but more importantly the amount of natural resources the nation has with in its own territory or under it control. Places like Europe and large swaths of Asia become very strained in that regard.
 
lnvanry said:
It won't just be having the capacity for manufacturing (like China, Korea, Germany, and the US....yes, we still have a large capacity for manufacturing) but more importantly the amount of natural resources the nation has with in its own territory or under it control. Places like Europe and large swaths of Asia become very strained in that regard.
Click to expand...

This was my thought as well. Well put.

The real problem countries (that I care about, anyway) are the smaller members of the UK. It may help that they're part of the EU, but then again, it may not.
 
People can certainly disagree with this article below, but more and more discussion is surfacing about this topic: bankruptcy/insolvency.

It's not the Marc Faber anymore.
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/privat.../bankrupt.html


The Bankruptcy of the United States is Now Certain



It's one of those numbers that's so unbelievable you have to actually think about it for a while... Within the next 12 months, the U.S. Treasury will have to refinance $2 trillion in short-term debt. And that's not counting any additional deficit spending, which is estimated to be around $1.5 trillion. Put the two numbers together. Then ask yourself, how in the world can the Treasury borrow $3.5 trillion in only one year? That's an amount equal to nearly 30% of our entire GDP. And we're the world's biggest economy. Where will the money come from?

How did we end up with so much short-term debt? Like most entities that have far too much debt - whether subprime borrowers, GM, Fannie, or GE - the U.S. Treasury has tried to minimize its interest burden by borrowing for short durations and then "rolling over" the loans when they come due. As they say on Wall Street, "a rolling debt collects no moss." What they mean is, as long as you can extend the debt, you have no problem. Unfortunately, that leads folks to take on ever greater amounts of debt... at ever shorter durations... at ever lower interest rates. Sooner or later, the creditors wake up and ask themselves: What are the chances I will ever actually be repaid? And that's when the trouble starts. Interest rates go up dramatically. Funding costs soar. The party is over. Bankruptcy is next.

When governments go bankrupt it's called "a default." Currency speculators figured out how to accurately predict when a country would default. Two well-known economists - Alan Greenspan and Pablo Guidotti - published the secret formula in a 1999 academic paper. That's why the formula is called the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. The rule states: To avoid a default, countries should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term foreign debt maturities. The world's largest money management firm, PIMCO, explains the rule this way: "The minimum benchmark of reserves equal to at least 100% of short-term external debt is known as the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. Greenspan-Guidotti is perhaps the single concept of reserve adequacy that has the most adherents and empirical support."

The principle behind the rule is simple. If you can't pay off all of your foreign debts in the next 12 months, you're a terrible credit risk. Speculators are going to target your bonds and your currency, making it impossible to refinance your debts. A default is assured.

So how does America rank on the Greenspan-Guidotti scale? It's a guaranteed default. The U.S. holds gold, oil, and foreign currency in reserve. The U.S. has 8,133.5 metric tonnes of gold (it is the world's largest holder). That's 16,267,000 pounds. At current dollar values, it's worth around $300 billion. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve shows a current total position of 725 million barrels. At current dollar prices, that's roughly $58 billion worth of oil. And according to the IMF, the U.S. has $136 billion in foreign currency reserves. So altogether... that's around $500 billion of reserves. Our short-term foreign debts are far bigger.

According to the U.S. Treasury, $2 trillion worth of debt will mature in the next 12 months. So looking only at short-term debt, we know the Treasury will have to finance at least $2 trillion worth of maturing debt in the next 12 months. That might not cause a crisis if we were still funding our national debt internally. But since 1985, we've been a net debtor to the world. Today, foreigners own 44% of all our debts, which means we owe foreign creditors at least $880 billion in the next 12 months - an amount far larger than our reserves.

Keep in mind, this only covers our existing debts. The Office of Management and Budget is predicting a $1.5 trillion budget deficit over the next year. That puts our total funding requirements on the order of $3.5 trillion over the next 12 months.

So... where will the money come from? Total domestic savings in the U.S. are only around $600 billion annually. Even if we all put every penny of our savings into U.S. Treasury debt, we're still going to come up nearly $3 trillion short. That's an annual funding requirement equal to roughly 40% of GDP. Where is the money going to come from? From our foreign creditors? Not according to Greenspan-Guidotti. And not according to the Indian or the Russian central bank, which have stopped buying Treasury bills and begun to buy enormous amounts of gold. The Indians bought 200 metric tonnes this month. Sources in Russia say the central bank there will double its gold reserves.

So where will the money come from? The printing press. The Federal Reserve has already monetized nearly $2 trillion worth of Treasury debt and mortgage debt. This weakens the value of the dollar and devalues our existing Treasury bonds. Sooner or later, our creditors will face a stark choice: Hold our bonds and continue to see the value diminish slowly, or try to escape to gold and see the value of their U.S. bonds plummet.

One thing they're not going to do is buy more of our debt. Which central banks will abandon the dollar next? Brazil, Korea, and Chile. These are the three largest central banks that own the least amount of gold. None own even 1% of their total reserves in gold.

I examined these issues in much greater detail in the most recent issue of my newsletter, Porter Stansberry's Investment Advisory, which we published last Friday. Coincidentally, the New York Times repeated our warnings - nearly word for word - in its paper today. (They didn't mention Greenspan-Guidotti, however... It's a real secret of international speculators.)
Click to expand...
 
we'll have to revisit this thread in a year then
 
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