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What do you think of this article?

mmafiter

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Do you EVEN FUQQING care?
I found this article on a MMA forum I visit. It calims there is a maximum amount of muscle a person can only hope to achieve without the use of drugs. He has a formula to determine your maximum muscle mass you can achieve.

I was wondering if this was bullshit or not.:shrug:

Your Maximum Muscular Bodyweight and Measurements
 
I can assure you that it's not bullshit. Of course, there will always be exceptions to almost any rule, but these formulae are as good as it gets right now.
 
It is BS. While it is true that you can only get so big without the use of drugs, a formula most certainly would not be able to quantify that number since individuals differ in the amount of hormones occuring naturally in the body. Also, you can not just use pre drug era bodybuilders as a basis for comparison since nutrition is more properly understood and we now have more efficient foods at spiking insulin and more easily absorbed protein than they did back then. There are other reasons, but I am sure others will list them.

I suppose you could get a roundabout figure but I would not put much weight behind it.
 
a formula most certainly would not be able to quantify that number since individuals differ in the amount of hormones occuring naturally in the body.
This is dealt with in the article.

Also, you can not just use pre drug era bodybuilders as a basis for comparison since nutrition is more properly understood and we now have more efficient foods at spiking insulin and more easily absorbed protein than they did back then.
This is also dealt with in the article.
 
Was Reg Park really all natural? Not saying its impossible, but the era and his size, I wonder. Compared to someone like Steve Reves he was a good bit larger.
 
Come on now, wrist and ankle measurements to determine maximum muscle mass. Why not the size of the brain to determine muscle mass? hehe
 
interesting read for sure, looks fairly legit...but honestly..what do i know? :)
 
Originally posted by Casey Butt
This is dealt with in the article.

This is also dealt with in the article.


Assuming that these athletes would have the highest hormone levels without having quantifiable evidence is far from "dealing with it".
 
Originally posted by Duncan

Assuming that these athletes would have the highest hormone levels without having quantifiable evidence is far from "dealing with it".
Quantifiable evidence that they had the most favorable hormonal profiles is not necessary. If they developed their championship physiques without a superior hormonal profile then why didn't trainees with superior profiles surpass them? That would indicate that hormonal profile does not play a significant role in muscle growth. Theoretically, it should, so the logical conclusion is that the champions, generally, had superior hormonal profiles.

Either way, their levels of development represent the pinnacle of drug-free achievement, so what do the details of their hormonal profiles matter - they still represent the limit of drug-free development. Depending on genetic factors some people may be able to reach that level, some may not. But it still represents realistic goals for drug-free trainees to shoot for.

The difficulties of a person with an average or less than average hormonal profile is dealt with in the article.
 
Originally posted by Casey Butt
If they developed their championship physiques without a superior hormonal profile then why didn't trainees with superior profiles surpass them?

You are assuming that all people with naturally high hormone levels train to be BBers. I have a friend who is covered in acne and built like an ox. He could probably bench more than most "Bodybuilders", but he doesn't care to have that look. I would guess by his sex drive and sides that he has naturally high test levels.


Depending on genetic factors some people may be able to reach that level, some may not. But it still represents realistic goals for drug-free trainees to shoot for.

Again, the fact that nutrition is better understood and foods can be engineered to be optimal for growth make the old set of data useless.

The difficulties of a person with an average or less than average hormonal profile is dealt with in the article.

Not disagreeig with you on this one.


By the by, this dialog is in no way meant to be antagonistic, you believe the data is fairly reliable and I do not, to each his own. I know that from a scientific standpoint the assumptions are to great to make any type of comparison.
 
Muscle Gelz Transdermals
IronMag Labs Prohormones
Mike Ashley and others are way beyond what this guy thinks can be possible, probably GoPro fits the bill as well don't you think?
 
Originally posted by EarWax
Come on now, wrist and ankle measurements to determine maximum muscle mass. Why not the size of the brain to determine muscle mass? hehe

It does make some level of sense, probably somewhat accurate for most people, doctors use the bones in the hand to estimate how tall a person will grow. Not saying this chart is accurate, but I would not doubt that wrist size is somewhat tied to muscular growth ability. Flex Wheeler was not that huge, but he did have small joints, and of course roids but my point is generally that those that are naturally big, are going to get bigger than those naturally skinny/small.
 
You are assuming that all people with naturally high hormone levels train to be BBers.
Not at all. I'm saying that BBers with better hormonal profiles should have surpassed the ones with poorer profiles. By that reasoning, if your friend switched to Bodybuilding he should be very successful.

Again, the fact that nutrition is better understood and foods can be engineered to be optimal for growth make the old set of data useless.
This was dealt with in the article.

I know that from a scientific standpoint the assumptions are to great to make any type of comparison.
Not at all. In fact, it was a statistical analysis of dozens of pre-steroid era Bodybuilders that allowed me to make certain connections anyway. In addition, anthropometrists have been doing such things for many, many years. There is a very clear connection between height, bone circumference and body weight/measurements. US army recruitment statistics show this quite clearly. There is also a limit to the amount of muscle that the naturally occurring androgens in the human body can support. What I did was estimate the maximum muscle mass that a drug-free trainee can achieve as a proportion of his current muscle mass. This was done by using a measurement called the fat free mass index (that is used to spot drug-using athletes) and then scale this to coincide with the differences due to height and bone structure. The result was that the formula worked to a stricking degree of accuracy with almost all of the pre-steroid era Bodybuilders.

Of course, there will always be exceptions, but regardless, the formulae still accurately predict the body weight and measurements you'd have to attain to win a major physique title in the pre-drug era.

Mudge,

I doubt very much that Mike Ashley is/was drug-free - at least he wasn't for all of his Bodybuilding career. Didn't Ronnie Coleman claim for years that he was also drug-free?
 
I had wondered if Ashley might have been cought down the road, how about then Skip Lacour? Even GoPro I say again, is larger than these numbers indicate. This is basically saying that I am genetically maxed out, which I think is pure bull, he takes some guys from the 1950s and says "this is the most you can do folks".
 
Actually, anthropometric measures that are currently being used are very poor, my degree is in ergonomics and me an my colleagues put little weight behind them. The 50th, 95th and 5th percentile male do not exist. I actually have a scale picture on here somewhere that shows what the 50th percentile male would actually look like and he does not look like any human I know. I will find it for you. Crap, it's gone. Here is an example. Say the 50th percentile male is 5'9". So would someone who is 5'9" with really long legs be any less the 50th percentile male than someone who is 5'9" with stubby legs. If so, which ones legs would be 50th percentile since they both are of 50th percentile height.

Nutrition was dealt with in the article, but not in the formulas. There is no constant or variable in the equation dealing with this.

You are correct about my friend, he would be very succesful, but the fact that there is no possibility that he,k or anyone who did not bodybuild, could be in the sample confounds the use of the statistics. The formulas that are presented in the article only pertain to people who chose to participate in bodybuilding in the 40's or whenever it was since that is the sample they chose and cannot be translated to someone of today.
 
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I'll be thanking God if I ever reach 8% BF ..

At ANY weight above 175lbs .. :D
 
Actually, anthropometric measures that are currently being used are very poor, my degree is in ergonomics and me an my colleagues put little weight behind them.
I wouldn't doubt for a moment that anthropometric measures are an insufficient basis for ergonomic design. But formulae for ideal/max development aren't considerate of non-ideal/sub-max levels of development. If the formulae were trying to predict the bodily measurements of everyone then it would be impossible to use limited anthropometrics. But the concern here is not the average but the ideal - people with title-winning physiques.

The 50th, 95th and 5th percentile male do not exist. I actually have a scale picture on here somewhere that shows what the 50th percentile male would actually look like and he does not look like any human I know. I will find it for you. Crap, it's gone. Here is an example. Say the 50th percentile male is 5'9". So would someone who is 5'9" with really long legs be any less the 50th percentile male than someone who is 5'9" with stubby legs. If so, which ones legs would be 50th percentile since they both are of 50th percentile height.
I have degrees in pure mathematics (minor in statistics), physics (minor in applied mathematics) and engineering (electrical), I can assure you that the 95th and 5th percentiles have to exist, that is within the definition of the term "percentile". If the 50th percentile didn't exist then there would be no one above average, that is not possible because of the definition of average.

Because population statistics follow a Gaussian distribution, though, I agree that it would be very difficult to isolate clearly-defined percentile boundaries. However, because of this Gaussian distribution, it is also ensured that "outliers" above and below the 95th and 5th percentiles will be very rare. This is part of the reason that the formulae do work for the majority of the population. Of course, if you're a midget or a giant then the formulae will probably not work for you because these groups were not included in the sample used to fit the equations.

Nutrition was dealt with in the article, but not in the formulas. There is no constant or variable in the equation dealing with this.
If your nutrition is inadequate then you won't reach your genetic potential. That doesn't change your potential, just the likelihood that you'll ever get there. Similarly, if your rest and/or training is inadequate then you won't reach your maximum potential.

I do not believe for one moment that today's nutritional practices have lead to natural Bodybuilders carrying more muscle than those of the 1950s. I have yet to see a truly natural Bodybuilder carrying more muscle mass than Jack Delinger did in the late 1940s or Reg Park in the 1950s. In fact, using the fat free mass index (FFMI) as a basis, I have yet to test anybody (that I was confident was drug-free) with a higher FFMI than Delinger. So there is no need to try to incorporate nutrition into the formulae (which would be impossible anyway) any more than there is whether a person uses barbells or dumbbells.

The formulas that are presented in the article only pertain to people who chose to participate in bodybuilding in the 40's or whenever it was since that is the sample they chose and cannot be translated to someone of today.
They did not choose the sample they belonged to - I did. And the human genome has not changed since that time, and drug-free Bodybuilders are no larger today than they were then. So it is irrelevant anyway.

Actually, I did include several current, supposed, drug-free Bodybuilders in the derivation of those formulae. However, this day in age there is no truly reliable way of verifying a person's drug-free status, so I choose not to include them in the published material. With the exception of a few (most notably Skip LaCour) the prediction equations are accurate. The problem with using today's athletes is that modern "natural" competitions have become largely just competitions to see who can use the most drugs yet still beat the drug test. I have several friends and acquaintances who compete in drug-tested events, yet they are using not only small doses of anabolics but very large ones.

To be quite honest, I think the chances of Skip LaCour being drug-free are about the same as Elton John being straight. He has competed at a competition weight of 231 at 5'10". That gives him an FFMI comparable to the top drug-using Bodybuilders. It also makes him quite larger (based on structure) than Schwarzenegger at his peak. I think about the only thing natural about Mr. LaCour is his ability to pass drug tests.

By the way, I won't be here for a few days, so if you respond I won't be able to get back to you until next week.
 
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Ahhh, so you are the author of this article. I do not think the article is all that bad, it took an awful lot of mathematical inference to get to where you got. I would also say that this is probably the most thorough analysis performed that I have seen.

In terms of the 50th percentile male, he does not have to actually exist in order for there to be a distribution. If a statistics class has a mean of 74.5 on a test, it does not mean that someone scored a 74.5 on the test, just that the distribution had a mean of 74.5. I think this is what you stated after the fact but am not sure.

If your nutrition is inadequate then you won't reach your genetic potential.

My point is that we understand nutrition alot better than they did back then. From what I understand, maltodextrin did not even exist and I doubt they had the knowledge BBers use today to spike insulin and such.

They did not choose the sample they belonged to - I did. And the human genome has not changed since that time, and drug-free Bodybuilders are no larger today than they were then. So it is irrelevant anyway.

Since you chose the sample, you have to be careful who you infer the statistics towards. As I said, you can only infer it towards a sample similar to the subjects in the experiment. Also, one must decide what exactly is drug-free. Creatine is certainly not a drug, but it was most likely not taken in supplement form back then. Also, one would have to assume that they were drug-free. Since scientists have been playing around with Test since the 1800s and had produced synthetic versions of it by 1930, one would be making an assumption that they were not using it in the 1940s.

To be quite honest, I think the chances of Skip LaCour being drug-free are about the same as Elton John being straight. He has competed at a competition weight of 231 at 5'10". That gives him an FFMI comparable to the top drug-using Bodybuilders. It also makes him quite larger (based on structure) than Schwarzenegger at his peak. I think about the only thing natural about Mr. LaCour is his ability to pass drug tests.

Could not agree with you more.

By the way, using the numbers from your formula for calves, I have exceeded my natural limit by 2 inches currently at 8% bf. I would hope I would not lose 2 inches on teh way down to 4%, but we will never know because I won't ever be doing that. All my other numbers achieved through the formula look like they are within an acceptable range, but I also used to get my fluid mechanics answers correct using incorrect equations. (That usually got quite a few points taken off by the way, I hated that.)
 
Originally posted by Casey Butt
To be quite honest, I think the chances of Skip LaCour being drug-free are about the same as Elton John being straight. He has competed at a competition weight of 231 at 5'10". That gives him an FFMI comparable to the top drug-using Bodybuilders. It also makes him quite larger (based on structure) than Schwarzenegger at his peak. I think about the only thing natural about Mr. LaCour is his ability to pass drug tests.


I'm supprised GoPro hasn't been in here, but I disagree. He is very strong and pretty damn well built for a 'drug free' or otherwise guy, however he is still 15-20 pounds shy of most of the bodybuilders his height, and as far as his bodyfat at competition I don't know, since I never see natural competitions in rags (and I hardly ever buy them anyway)!

I still think that this theoretical stuff the guy came up with too closely match technology 50 years ago, and I don't think its valid today. Today's overall diet, and training techniques are beyond what they were back then, and thusly, voila. Plus its so much more popular now than it was then that we have alot more subjects to work with. I do not take myself at all to be a genetic supermutant and 17" arms is easy for me to carry with a crap diet and occasional workouts, with 7.5" wrists.
 
I think this is all pretty funny. A formula for prdicting how big one can become naturally!? Thank goodness I never put any limitations on myself like that!
 
Duncan,

I thought you realized I was the author. I should have mentioned that - I thought everyone noticed the author's name (at least I have since I started writing myself :) ).

The 50th percentile refers to all scores above average (50%). So anyone above average has to belong to the 50th percentile. The average may or may not actually exist, but above average has to (otherwise the term "average"would have no meaning).

It is definitely an assumption that 1940s lifters were not using testosterone. However, testosterone was not FDA approved back then, so the amounts being manufactured were made by pharmaceutical companies for experimental purposes only. That makes it extremely unlikely that lifters had access to (or even knew about the existence of) synthetic testosterone.

In addition, the fat free mass indices (FFMIs) of these Bodybuilders would not indicate that they were using anabolic drugs. However, it would indicate that they were at the upper limits of lean body mass that non-androgen enhanced males can sustain. Therefore, modern nutritional techniques (and supplements, training styles, etc) have may made little to no difference in the amount of muscle mass that athletes can develop. If it did their FFMIs would be higher - yet they are not. Bodybuilders may compete leaner now, but they don't carry any more overall muscle.

I do get the impression though that some people are not really reading that article. For instance, I didn't say that the predictions are limitation for every body part. I said that some people with gifted muscle groups may surpass some of those measurements - but it's unlikely that they'll do it while maintaining a balanced physique (the most common example will be the calves). I'm not trying to put limitations on people, I'm trying to inject a little reality into the modern fantasy-land measurement claims. The formula also tells you what a balanced, world-class, drug-free physique really measures up to.
 
So according to this thing, with my height & wrists I can only have 15.4" arms

Which VERY funny cos I already at 17 have 16" arms, hmmmmmmm
 
And as gopro says (also, dorain yates said)

DON'T SET LIMITS !!

A famous example would be the 4min mile. Loads of people tried, but never succeded. Then a week or two after than John guy broke it a few people done it as well

Was it a mental thing ? Probably, I mean why could'nt they break 4 mins until someone done it and proved it was possible.
 
So according to this thing, with my height & wrists I can only have 15.4" arms.

Which VERY funny cos I already at 17 have 16" arms, hmmmmmmm
And of course, you are at about 8% body fat. You did after all, read all of the article.
 
In all fairness I will reread the article as I'm sure you make some valid points that I may have missed. I must say though that I am 100 % natural, not genetically gifted, and have surpassed all of the measurements you list by far.
 
Originally posted by Sub-Zero
A famous example would be the 4min mile. Loads of people tried, but never succeded. Then a week or two after than John guy broke it a few people done it as well

This was after science "proved" it was not humanly possible!
 
Actually, i'm 10-11% BF and I think my arms wont shrink that much :D
 
The problem is these formulas are meant for pure naturals. Not guys who use all these new supplements such as creatine,andro and so on.
You forget the supplements that pre steroids bodybuilders of the past had was food and tons of milk.
So unless you are a pure natural that means no supplements but maybe a multi vit and protien then you are not in the same vane as the pre steroidal crowd.
These measurements are not written in stone and there will always be exception to the rule on both sides of the measurments.
There are genetic superior individuals that will surpass these formulas but that is very few compared to the average trainee.
Plus again these are at 8% bodyfat that is proffessionaly taken.
I see so many people saying they have 10% bodyfat and really have 15%.
Its funny almost every bodybuilder has under 15% bodybuilder when asked and you know its bull just like everyone lies about their arm size.
Be true to yourself really get down to 8% and get it tested by a pro and measured by a pro and see were you really stack up.
Just my 2 cents.
 
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